
MTL
48-24-10

BUF
50-23-9
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · NHL
ontreal Canadiens went into Buffalo Sabres and beat them, 3–2 in overtime.
MTL +1.5 cashed (BUF lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
MTL · top performer

Zack Bolduc
RW · #76
1
G
0
A
—
SOG
BUF · top performer

Jordan Greenway
LW · #12
1
G
0
A
—
SOG
NHL · Montreal Canadiens at Buffalo Sabres · final
NHL · Box scoreEDGE


MTL
48-24-10
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
BUF
50-23-9
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
2
PIM
2
Playoff series
MTL wins series 4-3
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
BUF -1.5
Total
5.5
Defensive · -3.0 vs avg
Moneyline
10· 18h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
5.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
MTL beat BUF 3-2.
Last play
Game End
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | OT | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| BUF | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
Period scoring
MTL won 2 · BUF won 2
1
2
3
OT
Play-by-play · 388 plays
- 1st OT·11:22
Game End
MTL 3·BUF 2
- 1st OT·11:22
End of OT
MTL 3·BUF 2
- 1st OT·11:22
Alex Newhook Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexandre Carrier (4)
·
MTL 3·BUF 2
- 1st OT·11:08
Josh Norris faceoff won against Jake Evans
·
MTL 2·BUF 2
- 1st OT·11:08
Goalie Stopped
MTL 2·BUF 2
- 1st OT·11:06
Tage Thompson Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
MTL 2·BUF 2
- 1st OT·10:57
Josh Norris faceoff won against Jake Evans
·
MTL 2·BUF 2
- 1st OT·10:57
Goalie Stopped
MTL 2·BUF 2
- 1st OT·10:55
Rasmus Dahlin Slap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
MTL 2·BUF 2
- 1st OT·10:52
Josh Norris faceoff won against Phillip Danault
·
MTL 2·BUF 2
- 1st OT·10:52
Icing
MTL 2·BUF 2
- 1st OT·10:42
Konsta Helenius Wrist Shot High and Wide Left
·
MTL 2·BUF 2
- 1st OT·10:21
Josh Doan Wrist Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
MTL 2·BUF 2
- 1st OT·10:15
Takeaway by Ryan McLeod
MTL 2·BUF 2
- 1st OT·10:06
Ivan Demidov shot blocked by Mattias Samuelsson
·
MTL 2·BUF 2
- 1st OT·9:29
Tage Thompson shot blocked by Kaiden Guhle
·
MTL 2·BUF 2
- 1st OT·9:21
Juraj Slafkovský Wrist Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
·
MTL 2·BUF 2
- 1st OT·9:01
Alexandre Texier hit Beck Malenstyn
·
MTL 2·BUF 2
- 1st OT·8:26
Phillip Danault faceoff won against Peyton Krebs
·
MTL 2·BUF 2
- 1st OT·8:26
Icing
MTL 2·BUF 2
- 1st OT·8:18
Peyton Krebs faceoff won against Phillip Danault
·
MTL 2·BUF 2
- 1st OT·8:18
Icing
MTL 2·BUF 2
- 1st OT·8:13
Kirby Dach hit Mattias Samuelsson
·
MTL 2·BUF 2
- 1st OT·7:46
Beck Malenstyn hit Mike Matheson
·
MTL 2·BUF 2
- 1st OT·6:55
Rasmus Dahlin shot blocked by Nick Suzuki
·
MTL 2·BUF 2
- 1st OT·6:50
Ryan McLeod Slap Shot Wide Left
·
MTL 2·BUF 2
- 1st OT·6:09
Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Jake Evans
·
MTL 2·BUF 2
- 1st OT·6:09
Puck in Netting
MTL 2·BUF 2
- 1st OT·6:02
Tage Thompson Wrist Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
MTL 2·BUF 2
- 1st OT·6:00
Tage Thompson Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
MTL 2·BUF 2
Team stats
MTL
Away
Stat
BUF
Home
25
Shots
39
100.0
PCT
0.0
2
PIM
2
32
Faceoffs W
37
22
Blocks
12
22
Giveaways
16
7
Takeaways
3
Betting line
BUF -1.5·O/U 5.5·MTL -102/BUF -118
NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
Lane HutsonMTL · DDIST MI71.899+
Josh AndersonMTL · RWBURSTS7699+
Mike MathesonMTL · DDIST MI62.999
Cole CaufieldMTL · RWDIST MI56.699
Ryan McLeodBUF · CBURSTS7299
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.3%
ensemble · BUF favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BUF win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BUF win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BUF win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
+2.18
CLV pp · steam
Open price
-112
Close price
-122
Open no-vig
50.4%
Close no-vig
52.6%
Market steamed in our direction · Graded: miss