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FINAL+1MTL
MTL

MTL

48-24-10

32
BUF

BUF

50-23-9

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLMon, May 18FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasBUF -118

Recap · NHL

ontreal Canadiens went into Buffalo Sabres and beat them, 3–2 in overtime.

MTL +1.5 cashed (BUF lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MTL · top performer

MTL
Zack Bolduc

Zack Bolduc

RW · #76

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

BUF · top performer

BUF
Jordan Greenway

Jordan Greenway

LW · #12

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Montreal Canadiens at Buffalo Sabres · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT
3
2
MTL48-24-10BUF50-23-9
MTL

MTL

48-24-10

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
BUF

BUF

50-23-9

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

2

PIM

2

Playoff series

MTL wins series 4-3

May 6MTLMTL2@BUFBUF4
May 8MTLMTL5@BUFBUF1
May 10BUFBUF2@MTLMTL6
May 12BUFBUF3@MTLMTL2
May 14MTLMTL6@BUFBUF3
May 17BUFBUF8@MTLMTL3
May 18MTLMTL3@BUFBUF2today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BUF -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MTLMTL-10250%
BUFBUF-11854%

10· 18h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MTL beat BUF 3-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTT
MTL20013
BUF01102

Period scoring

MTL won 2 · BUF won 2

2
0

1

0
1

2

0
1

3

1
0

OT

MTL
BUF

Play-by-play · 388 plays

period
event
player
  1. 1st OT·11:22

    Game End

    MTL 3·BUF 2

  2. 1st OT·11:22

    End of OT

    MTL 3·BUF 2

  3. 1st OT·11:22

    Alex Newhook Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexandre Carrier (4)

    ·

    MTL 3·BUF 2

  4. 1st OT·11:08

    Josh Norris faceoff won against Jake Evans

    ·

    MTL 2·BUF 2

  5. 1st OT·11:08

    Goalie Stopped

    MTL 2·BUF 2

  6. 1st OT·11:06

    Tage Thompson Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes

    ·

    MTL 2·BUF 2

  7. 1st OT·10:57

    Josh Norris faceoff won against Jake Evans

    ·

    MTL 2·BUF 2

  8. 1st OT·10:57

    Goalie Stopped

    MTL 2·BUF 2

  9. 1st OT·10:55

    Rasmus Dahlin Slap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes

    ·

    MTL 2·BUF 2

  10. 1st OT·10:52

    Josh Norris faceoff won against Phillip Danault

    ·

    MTL 2·BUF 2

  11. 1st OT·10:52

    Icing

    MTL 2·BUF 2

  12. 1st OT·10:42

    Konsta Helenius Wrist Shot High and Wide Left

    ·

    MTL 2·BUF 2

  13. 1st OT·10:21

    Josh Doan Wrist Shot saved by Jakub Dobes

    ·

    MTL 2·BUF 2

  14. 1st OT·10:15

    Takeaway by Ryan McLeod

    MTL 2·BUF 2

  15. 1st OT·10:06

    Ivan Demidov shot blocked by Mattias Samuelsson

    ·

    MTL 2·BUF 2

  16. 1st OT·9:29

    Tage Thompson shot blocked by Kaiden Guhle

    ·

    MTL 2·BUF 2

  17. 1st OT·9:21

    Juraj Slafkovský Wrist Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

    ·

    MTL 2·BUF 2

  18. 1st OT·9:01

    Alexandre Texier hit Beck Malenstyn

    ·

    MTL 2·BUF 2

  19. 1st OT·8:26

    Phillip Danault faceoff won against Peyton Krebs

    ·

    MTL 2·BUF 2

  20. 1st OT·8:26

    Icing

    MTL 2·BUF 2

  21. 1st OT·8:18

    Peyton Krebs faceoff won against Phillip Danault

    ·

    MTL 2·BUF 2

  22. 1st OT·8:18

    Icing

    MTL 2·BUF 2

  23. 1st OT·8:13

    Kirby Dach hit Mattias Samuelsson

    ·

    MTL 2·BUF 2

  24. 1st OT·7:46

    Beck Malenstyn hit Mike Matheson

    ·

    MTL 2·BUF 2

  25. 1st OT·6:55

    Rasmus Dahlin shot blocked by Nick Suzuki

    ·

    MTL 2·BUF 2

  26. 1st OT·6:50

    Ryan McLeod Slap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    MTL 2·BUF 2

  27. 1st OT·6:09

    Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Jake Evans

    ·

    MTL 2·BUF 2

  28. 1st OT·6:09

    Puck in Netting

    MTL 2·BUF 2

  29. 1st OT·6:02

    Tage Thompson Wrist Shot saved by Jakub Dobes

    ·

    MTL 2·BUF 2

  30. 1st OT·6:00

    Tage Thompson Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    MTL 2·BUF 2

Team stats

MTL

Away

Stat

BUF

Home

25

Shots

39

100.0

PCT

0.0

2

PIM

2

32

Faceoffs W

37

22

Blocks

12

22

Giveaways

16

7

Takeaways

3

Betting line

BUF -1.5·O/U 5.5·MTL -102/BUF -118

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Lane HutsonMTL · D
    DIST MI71.899+
  • Josh AndersonMTL · RW
    BURSTS7699+
  • Mike MathesonMTL · D
    DIST MI62.999
  • Cole CaufieldMTL · RW
    DIST MI56.699
  • Ryan McLeodBUF · C
    BURSTS7299

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · BUF favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+2.18

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-112

Close price

-122

Open no-vig

50.4%

Close no-vig

52.6%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR