Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MTL at BUF?

The model favors BUF, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1MTL

MTL

48-24-10

BUF

50-23-9

NHLMon, May 18FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasBUF -118

MTL · top performer

Zack Bolduc

RW · #76

1Points

—

SOG

BUF · top performer

Rasmus Dahlin

D · #26

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AndersonRW · #17	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	17:10
Z. BolducRW · #76	1	0	-1	2	3	1	0	9:11
C. CaufieldRW · #13	0	0	0	5	3	1	0	21:16
K. DachC · #77	0	0	-1	1	4	1	0	8:58
P. DanaultC · #24	1	0	-1	2	0	1	2	17:16
I. DemidovRW · #93	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	22:19
J. EvansC · #71	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	22:33
O. KapanenC · #91	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	4:45
A. NewhookC · #15	1	0	1	2	3	0	0	19:52
J. SlafkovskyLW · #20	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	23:07
N. SuzukiC · #14	0	1	0	1	2	2	0	29:30
A. TexierLW · #85	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	17:51

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. CarrierD · #45	0	1	0	1	1	5	0	27:03
N. DobsonD · #53	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	26:30
K. GuhleD · #21	0	1	0	1	3	4	0	22:52
L. HutsonD · #48	0	1	-1	1	0	3	0	31:17
M. MathesonD · #8	0	0	1	1	0	2	0	31:28
A. XhekajD · #72	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	1:52

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DobesG · #75	39	2	37	.949	71:22

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BensonLW · #6	0	0	-1	2	0	0	2	24:07
J. DoanRW · #91	0	0	1	3	1	1	0	18:38
J. GreenwayLW · #12	1	0	1	2	3	0	0	11:11
K. HeleniusC · #94	0	0	-1	3	3	1	0	16:37
P. KrebsC · #19	0	0	1	1	2	2	0	11:13
B. MalenstynLW · #29	0	1	1	1	4	0	0	10:42
R. McLeodC · #71	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	20:39
J. NorrisC · #9	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	21:37
J. QuinnRW · #22	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	19:12
T. ThompsonC · #72	0	0	-1	5	0	0	0	21:56
A. TuchRW · #89	0	0	1	5	2	2	0	21:25
J. ZuckerLW · #17	0	0	-1	0	3	1	0	16:39

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. ByramD · #4	0	0	-2	1	0	1	0	28:18
R. DahlinD · #26	1	0	0	5	1	2	0	33:11
Z. MetsaD · #73	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3:25
O. PowerD · #25	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	28:47
M. SamuelssonD · #23	0	1	1	2	0	2	0	28:35
C. TimminsD · #21	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	18:43

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
U. LuukkonenG · #1	25	3	22	.880	71:22

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

MTL

Away

Stat

BUF

Home

Shots

100.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

MTL wins series 4-3

May 6

MTL2@

BUF4

May 8

MTL5@

BUF1

May 10

BUF2@

MTL6

May 12

BUF3@

MTL2

May 14

MTL6@

BUF3

May 17

BUF8@

MTL3

May 18

MTL3@

BUF2today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BUF -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MTL-10250%

BUF-11854%

10· 18h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MTL beat BUF 3-2. Z. Bolduc led the way — 1 G · 2 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
MTL	2	0	0	1	3
BUF	0	1	1	0	2

Period scoring

MTL won 2 · BUF won 2

MTL

BUF

Play-by-play · 388 plays

period

event

player

1st OT·11:22
Game End
MTL 3·BUF 2
1st OT·11:22
End of OT
MTL 3·BUF 2
1st OT·11:22
Alex Newhook Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Alexandre Carrier (4)
·
MTL 3·BUF 2
1st OT·11:08
Josh Norris faceoff won against Jake Evans
·
MTL 2·BUF 2
1st OT·11:08
Goalie Stopped
MTL 2·BUF 2
1st OT·11:06
Tage Thompson Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
MTL 2·BUF 2
1st OT·10:57
Josh Norris faceoff won against Jake Evans
·
MTL 2·BUF 2
1st OT·10:57
Goalie Stopped
MTL 2·BUF 2
1st OT·10:55
Rasmus Dahlin Slap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
MTL 2·BUF 2
1st OT·10:52
Josh Norris faceoff won against Phillip Danault
·
MTL 2·BUF 2
1st OT·10:52
Icing
MTL 2·BUF 2
1st OT·10:42
Konsta Helenius Wrist Shot High and Wide Left
·
MTL 2·BUF 2
1st OT·10:21
Josh Doan Wrist Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
MTL 2·BUF 2
1st OT·10:15
Takeaway by Ryan McLeod
MTL 2·BUF 2
1st OT·10:06
Ivan Demidov shot blocked by Mattias Samuelsson
·
MTL 2·BUF 2
1st OT·9:29
Tage Thompson shot blocked by Kaiden Guhle
·
MTL 2·BUF 2
1st OT·9:21
Juraj Slafkovský Wrist Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
·
MTL 2·BUF 2
1st OT·9:01
Alexandre Texier hit Beck Malenstyn
·
MTL 2·BUF 2
1st OT·8:26
Phillip Danault faceoff won against Peyton Krebs
·
MTL 2·BUF 2
1st OT·8:26
Icing
MTL 2·BUF 2
1st OT·8:18
Peyton Krebs faceoff won against Phillip Danault
·
MTL 2·BUF 2
1st OT·8:18
Icing
MTL 2·BUF 2
1st OT·8:13
Kirby Dach hit Mattias Samuelsson
·
MTL 2·BUF 2
1st OT·7:46
Beck Malenstyn hit Mike Matheson
·
MTL 2·BUF 2
1st OT·6:55
Rasmus Dahlin shot blocked by Nick Suzuki
·
MTL 2·BUF 2
1st OT·6:50
Ryan McLeod Slap Shot Wide Left
·
MTL 2·BUF 2
1st OT·6:09
Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Jake Evans
·
MTL 2·BUF 2
1st OT·6:09
Puck in Netting
MTL 2·BUF 2
1st OT·6:02
Tage Thompson Wrist Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
MTL 2·BUF 2
1st OT·6:00
Tage Thompson Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
MTL 2·BUF 2

Betting line

BUF -1.5·O/U 5.5·MTL -102/BUF -118

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ontreal Canadiens went into Buffalo Sabres and beat them, 3–2 in overtime.

MTL +1.5 cashed (BUF lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Alex Tuch · WSH21:300.6566.0%70.8%21:30 TOI · 0.65 iXG · 66.0% CF · 70.8% xGF
Cole Caufield · MTL21:240.6447.4%53.1%21:24 TOI · 0.64 iXG · 47.4% CF · 53.1% xGF
Alex Newhook · MTL20:060.6052.9%59.5%20:06 TOI · 0.60 iXG · 52.9% CF · 59.5% xGF
Josh Doan · BUF18:540.5976.3%77.4%18:54 TOI · 0.59 iXG · 76.3% CF · 77.4% xGF
Tage Thompson · BUF22:000.5760.0%50.8%22:00 TOI · 0.57 iXG · 60.0% CF · 50.8% xGF
Josh Anderson · MTL17:060.5235.9%28.3%17:06 TOI · 0.52 iXG · 35.9% CF · 28.3% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Jakub Dobes · MTL37–2.949+2.3037–2 · .949 SV% · +2.30 GSAx
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen · BUF22–3.880-0.4722–3 · .880 SV% · -0.47 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.1%

ensemble · BUF favored

Elo Static
55.1%
P(BUF win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
55.1%
P(BUF win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
55.1%
P(BUF win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+2.18

CLV pp · steam

Open price

-112

Close price

-122

Open no-vig

50.4%

Close no-vig

52.6%

Market steamed in our direction · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MTL at BUF?: The model favors BUF, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+3.4pp

best edge · BUF · DraftKings

MTL

no live price

BUF

★ best

-118DraftKings

edge +3.4pp · implied 51.7%

Book	MTL	BUF	Best edge
DraftKings	-102	-118★	+3.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.