Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BUF at MTL?

The model favors BUF, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+5BUF

BUF

50-23-9

MTL

48-24-10

NHLSat, May 16FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasMTL -175

BUF · top performer

Tage Thompson

C · #72

4Points

—

SOG

MTL · top performer

Ivan Demidov

RW · #93

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BensonLW · #6	1	1	3	6	1	2	10	20:04
J. DoanRW · #91	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	16:31
J. GreenwayLW · #12	0	0	-1	0	1	1	0	8:15
K. HeleniusC · #94	1	0	1	2	0	2	0	12:36
P. KrebsC · #19	0	0	-1	0	1	0	12	6:25
B. MalenstynLW · #29	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	8:22
R. McLeodC · #71	0	1	0	1	0	1	0	21:56
J. NorrisC · #9	0	1	1	2	3	0	4	15:27
J. QuinnRW · #22	2	1	1	3	1	1	0	18:18
T. ThompsonC · #72	1	3	3	6	3	0	0	18:14
A. TuchRW · #89	0	0	-1	4	1	1	2	19:10
J. ZuckerLW · #17	1	1	0	2	1	0	0	13:29

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. ByramD · #4	0	1	1	2	3	1	0	19:53
R. DahlinD · #26	1	4	2	3	0	0	2	19:56
Z. MetsaD · #73	1	0	-1	1	0	1	0	12:19
O. PowerD · #25	0	0	1	0	1	2	0	22:22
M. SamuelssonD · #23	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	22:53
C. TimminsD · #21	0	0	1	0	0	5	0	17:26

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
U. LuukkonenG · #1	18	0	18	1.000	49:41
A. LyonG · #34	4	3	1	.250	10:14

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AndersonRW · #17	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	14:03
Z. BolducRW · #76	0	0	-1	0	7	0	0	13:39
C. CaufieldRW · #13	0	1	-1	2	0	0	0	16:01
K. DachC · #77	0	0	-1	2	3	0	10	11:24
P. DanaultC · #24	0	0	-1	0	3	1	2	12:06
I. DemidovRW · #93	1	0	0	5	0	0	0	17:14
J. EvansC · #71	1	1	1	1	1	1	12	16:13
A. NewhookC · #15	0	0	-1	3	2	1	0	16:32
J. SlafkovskyLW · #20	0	0	-1	3	0	1	0	17:46
N. SuzukiC · #14	0	0	-1	2	2	0	0	19:20
A. TexierLW · #85	0	0	-2	0	1	0	0	13:04
J. VelenoC · #90	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	9:59

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. CarrierD · #45	0	0	-2	0	0	0	12	17:32
N. DobsonD · #53	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	25:22
K. GuhleD · #21	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	19:27
L. HutsonD · #48	0	1	0	1	1	2	2	24:28
M. MathesonD · #8	0	1	-2	0	3	1	4	22:05
A. XhekajD · #72	1	0	0	1	3	1	12	7:12

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. FowlerG · #32	2	1	1	.500	8:23
J. DobesG · #75	33	6	27	.818	49:58

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

BUF

Away

Stat

MTL

Home

Shots

66.7

PCT

33.3

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

Series tied 3-3

May 6

MTL2@

BUF4

May 8

MTL5@

BUF1

May 10

BUF2@

MTL6

May 12

BUF3@

MTL2

May 14

MTL6@

BUF3

May 17

BUF8@

MTL3today

May 18

MTL3@

BUF2

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MTL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BUF+14541%

MTL-17564%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BUF beat MTL 8-3. T. Thompson led the way — 1 G · 3 A · 6 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
BUF	2	3	3	8
MTL	3	0	0	3

Period scoring

BUF won 2 · MTL won 1

BUF

MTL

Play-by-play · 318 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
BUF 8·MTL 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
BUF 8·MTL 3
3rd·19:12
Giveaway by Jordan Greenway
BUF 8·MTL 3
3rd·19:04
Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Phillip Danault
·
BUF 8·MTL 3
3rd·19:04
Icing
BUF 8·MTL 3
3rd·18:53
Giveaway by Alexandre Texier
BUF 8·MTL 3
3rd·18:37
Konsta Helenius faceoff won against Phillip Danault
·
BUF 8·MTL 3
3rd·18:37
Goalie Stopped
BUF 8·MTL 3
3rd·18:35
Jordan Greenway hit Noah Dobson
·
BUF 8·MTL 3
3rd·18:34
Noah Dobson Wrist Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
·
BUF 8·MTL 3
3rd·18:34
Giveaway by Ryan McLeod
BUF 8·MTL 3
3rd·18:28
Giveaway by Conor Timmins
BUF 8·MTL 3
3rd·18:27
Joseph Veleno hit Conor Timmins
·
BUF 8·MTL 3
3rd·18:17
Noah Dobson hit Beck Malenstyn
·
BUF 8·MTL 3
3rd·18:13
Conor Timmins Snap Shot Wide Left
·
BUF 8·MTL 3
3rd·18:13
Giveaway by Jacob Fowler
BUF 8·MTL 3
3rd·17:55
Giveaway by Bowen Byram
BUF 8·MTL 3
3rd·17:52
Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Alex Newhook
·
BUF 8·MTL 3
3rd·17:52
Peyton Krebs Misconduct
BUF 8·MTL 3
3rd·17:52
Kirby Dach Misconduct
BUF 8·MTL 3
3rd·17:49
Peyton Krebs faceoff won against Kirby Dach
·
BUF 8·MTL 3
3rd·17:49
Zach Metsa Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (3), Rasmus Dahlin (10)
· ·
BUF 8·MTL 3
3rd·17:20
Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Phillip Danault
·
BUF 7·MTL 3
3rd·17:20
Jake Evans Misconduct
BUF 7·MTL 3
3rd·17:20
Alexandre Carrier Misconduct
BUF 7·MTL 3
3rd·17:20
Zach Benson Misconduct
BUF 7·MTL 3
3rd·17:20
Josh Norris Slashing against Mike Matheson
·
BUF 7·MTL 3
3rd·17:20
Jake Evans Roughing against Rasmus Dahlin
·
BUF 7·MTL 3
3rd·17:16
Josh Norris faceoff won against Jake Evans
·
BUF 7·MTL 3
3rd·17:16
Arber Xhekaj Misconduct
BUF 7·MTL 3

Betting line

MTL -1.5·O/U 6.5·BUF +145/MTL -175

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

uffalo Sabres went into Montreal Canadiens and beat them, 8–3.

BUF +1.5 cashed (MTL lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Tage Thompson · BUF18:360.7167.7%79.3%18:36 TOI · 0.71 iXG · 67.7% CF · 79.3% xGF
Zach Benson · BUF20:240.6863.9%79.8%20:24 TOI · 0.68 iXG · 63.9% CF · 79.8% xGF
Alex Tuch · WSH19:240.5667.7%89.0%19:24 TOI · 0.56 iXG · 67.7% CF · 89.0% xGF
Jason Zucker · BUF13:360.5042.4%43.5%13:36 TOI · 0.50 iXG · 42.4% CF · 43.5% xGF
Ivan Demidov · MTL17:240.4970.6%71.7%17:24 TOI · 0.49 iXG · 70.6% CF · 71.7% xGF
Cole Caufield · MTL16:120.4364.9%55.5%16:12 TOI · 0.43 iXG · 64.9% CF · 55.5% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen · BUF18–01.000+1.8518–0 · 1.000 SV% · +1.85 GSAx
Jacob Fowler · MTL1–1.500-0.901–1 · .500 SV% · -0.90 GSAx
Jakub Dobes · MTL27–6.818-1.4727–6 · .818 SV% · -1.47 GSAx
Alex Lyon · BUF1–3.250-2.551–3 · .250 SV% · -2.55 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.4%

ensemble · MTL favored

Elo Static
56.4%
P(MTL win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
56.4%
P(MTL win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
56.4%
P(MTL win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+145

Close price

+145

Open no-vig

39.1%

Close no-vig

39.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BUF at MTL?: The model favors BUF, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+4.5pp

best edge · BUF · DraftKings

BUF

★ best

+145DraftKings

edge +4.5pp · implied 39.1%

MTL

no live price

Book	BUF	MTL	Best edge
DraftKings	+145★	-175	+4.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.