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FINAL+5BUF
BUF

BUF

50-23-9

83
MTL

MTL

48-24-10

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, May 16FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasMTL -175

Recap · NHL

uffalo Sabres went into Montreal Canadiens and beat them, 8–3.

BUF +1.5 cashed (MTL lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BUF · top performer

BUF
Tage Thompson

Tage Thompson

C · #72

4Points

1

G

3

A

—

SOG

MTL · top performer

MTL
Jake Evans

Jake Evans

C · #71

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Buffalo Sabres at Montreal Canadiens · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
8
3
BUF50-23-9MTL48-24-10
BUF

BUF

50-23-9

8
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
MTL

MTL

48-24-10

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

32

PIM

58

Playoff series

Series tied 3-3

May 6MTLMTL2@BUFBUF4
May 8MTLMTL5@BUFBUF1
May 10BUFBUF2@MTLMTL6
May 12BUFBUF3@MTLMTL2
May 14MTLMTL6@BUFBUF3
May 17BUFBUF8@MTLMTL3today
May 18MTLMTL3@BUFBUF2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MTL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BUFBUF+14541%
MTLMTL-17564%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BUF beat MTL 8-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
BUF2338
MTL3003

Period scoring

BUF won 2 · MTL won 1

2
3

1

3
0

2

3
0

3

BUF
MTL

Play-by-play · 318 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    BUF 8·MTL 3

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    BUF 8·MTL 3

  3. 3rd·19:12

    Giveaway by Jordan Greenway

    BUF 8·MTL 3

  4. 3rd·19:04

    Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Phillip Danault

    ·

    BUF 8·MTL 3

  5. 3rd·19:04

    Icing

    BUF 8·MTL 3

  6. 3rd·18:53

    Giveaway by Alexandre Texier

    BUF 8·MTL 3

  7. 3rd·18:37

    Konsta Helenius faceoff won against Phillip Danault

    ·

    BUF 8·MTL 3

  8. 3rd·18:37

    Goalie Stopped

    BUF 8·MTL 3

  9. 3rd·18:35

    Jordan Greenway hit Noah Dobson

    ·

    BUF 8·MTL 3

  10. 3rd·18:34

    Noah Dobson Wrist Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

    ·

    BUF 8·MTL 3

  11. 3rd·18:34

    Giveaway by Ryan McLeod

    BUF 8·MTL 3

  12. 3rd·18:28

    Giveaway by Conor Timmins

    BUF 8·MTL 3

  13. 3rd·18:27

    Joseph Veleno hit Conor Timmins

    ·

    BUF 8·MTL 3

  14. 3rd·18:17

    Noah Dobson hit Beck Malenstyn

    ·

    BUF 8·MTL 3

  15. 3rd·18:13

    Conor Timmins Snap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    BUF 8·MTL 3

  16. 3rd·18:13

    Giveaway by Jacob Fowler

    BUF 8·MTL 3

  17. 3rd·17:55

    Giveaway by Bowen Byram

    BUF 8·MTL 3

  18. 3rd·17:52

    Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Alex Newhook

    ·

    BUF 8·MTL 3

  19. 3rd·17:52

    Peyton Krebs Misconduct

    BUF 8·MTL 3

  20. 3rd·17:52

    Kirby Dach Misconduct

    BUF 8·MTL 3

  21. 3rd·17:49

    Peyton Krebs faceoff won against Kirby Dach

    ·

    BUF 8·MTL 3

  22. 3rd·17:49

    Zach Metsa Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (3), Rasmus Dahlin (10)

    · ·

    BUF 8·MTL 3

  23. 3rd·17:20

    Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Phillip Danault

    ·

    BUF 7·MTL 3

  24. 3rd·17:20

    Jake Evans Misconduct

    BUF 7·MTL 3

  25. 3rd·17:20

    Alexandre Carrier Misconduct

    BUF 7·MTL 3

  26. 3rd·17:20

    Zach Benson Misconduct

    BUF 7·MTL 3

  27. 3rd·17:20

    Josh Norris Slashing against Mike Matheson

    ·

    BUF 7·MTL 3

  28. 3rd·17:20

    Jake Evans Roughing against Rasmus Dahlin

    ·

    BUF 7·MTL 3

  29. 3rd·17:16

    Josh Norris faceoff won against Jake Evans

    ·

    BUF 7·MTL 3

  30. 3rd·17:16

    Arber Xhekaj Misconduct

    BUF 7·MTL 3

Team stats

BUF

Away

Stat

MTL

Home

36

Shots

22

66.7

PCT

33.3

32

PIM

58

34

Faceoffs W

22

18

Blocks

9

18

Giveaways

11

3

Takeaways

5

Betting line

MTL -1.5·O/U 6.5·BUF +145/MTL -175

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Lane HutsonMTL · D
    DIST MI71.899+
  • Josh AndersonMTL · RW
    BURSTS7699+
  • Mike MathesonMTL · D
    DIST MI62.999
  • Ryan McLeodBUF · C
    BURSTS7299
  • Cole CaufieldMTL · RW
    DIST MI56.699

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · MTL favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(MTL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(MTL win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(MTL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+145

Close price

+145

Open no-vig

39.1%

Close no-vig

39.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR