NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1ANA

BUF

44-20-7

ANA

39-27-4

NHLSun, Mar 22FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasANA -102

Recap · NHL

naheim Ducks held off Buffalo Sabres, 6–5 in overtime.

BUF +1.5 cashed (ANA won by 1). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BUF · top performer

Zach Benson

LW · #6

2Points

—

SOG

ANA · top performer

Leo Carlsson

C · #91

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	G	A	+/-	S	HT	BS	PIM	TOI
Z. BensonLW · #6	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	12:07
S. CarrickC · #10	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	12:20
J. DoanRW · #91	1	0	1	2	2	0	0	15:40
P. KrebsC · #19	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	16:21
B. MalenstynLW · #29	0	1	1	3	1	1	0	10:33
R. McLeodC · #71	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	15:33
J. NorrisC · #9	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	15:07
N. OstlundC · #86	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	14:42
J. QuinnRW · #22	1	0	0	2	1	0	0	14:40
T. ThompsonC · #72	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	22:02
A. TuchRW · #89	1	0	1	2	0	0	2	21:31
J. ZuckerLW · #17	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	14:21

Defensemen

defenses box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	G	A	+/-	S	HT	BS	PIM	TOI
B. ByramD · #4	0	1	2	2	0	2	2	19:55
R. DahlinD · #26	0	2	1	4	1	0	0	25:18
Z. MetsaD · #73	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	12:13
O. PowerD · #25	1	1	2	1	0	1	0	21:01
M. SamuelssonD · #23	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	22:44
L. StanleyD · #64	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	14:01

Goalies

goalies box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	SA	GA	SV	SV%	TOI
A. LyonG · #34	33	6	27	.818	61:17

Forwards

forwards box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	G	A	+/-	S	HT	BS	PIM	TOI
L. CarlssonC · #91	0	2	-1	3	0	0	0	17:31
C. GauthierLW · #61	0	0	-3	2	1	0	0	16:22
M. GranlundC · #64	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	18:43
J. HarkinsC · #24	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	8:36
A. KillornLW · #17	0	0	-1	3	1	1	0	17:54
C. KreiderLW · #20	1	1	0	4	1	0	0	17:40
M. McTavishC · #23	0	1	0	1	0	2	0	12:28
R. PoehlingC · #25	0	0	-2	0	1	1	0	16:23
B. SenneckeRW · #45	1	1	1	3	0	0	2	15:00
T. TerryRW · #19	2	0	1	3	0	0	0	18:09
J. VielLW · #28	0	0	-3	0	1	0	2	12:01
T. WasheC · #42	0	1	1	0	5	0	2	11:14

Defensemen

defenses box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	G	A	+/-	S	HT	BS	PIM	TOI
J. CarlsonD · #74	0	0	-1	2	1	1	0	25:03
J. LaCombeD · #2	1	1	0	1	0	1	0	23:56
P. MintyukovD · #98	0	0	-1	1	4	3	0	21:20
I. MooreD · #3	0	0	-3	2	1	1	0	9:50
J. TroubaD · #65	0	0	2	2	4	3	0	24:18
O. ZellwegerD · #51	0	1	-2	2	0	0	0	12:45

Goalies

goalies box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	SA	GA	SV	SV%	TOI
V. HussoG · #33	29	5	24	.828	60:43

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jan 11

ANA3@

BUF5

Mar 23

BUF5@

ANA6today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ANA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BUF-11854%

ANA-10250%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ANA -1.5↗SpreadBet ANA -1.5↗

Line movement · 19 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

ANA beat BUF 6-5.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
BUF	2	0	3	0	5
ANA	2	2	1	1	6

Period scoring

BUF won 1 · ANA won 2

BUF

ANA

Play-by-play · 324 plays

period

event

player

OT·1:29
Game End
BUF 5·ANA 6
OT·1:29
End of OT
BUF 5·ANA 6
OT·1:29
Troy Terry Goal (16) Backhand, assists: none
BUF 5·ANA 6
OT·1:09
Leo Carlsson Backhand Wide Right
·
BUF 5·ANA 5
OT·0:53
Leo Carlsson faceoff won against Josh Norris
·
BUF 5·ANA 5
OT·0:53
On-Ice Official
BUF 5·ANA 5
OT·0:41
Takeaway by Jackson LaCombe
BUF 5·ANA 5
OT·0:40
Chris Kreider hit Rasmus Dahlin
·
BUF 5·ANA 5
OT·0:23
Giveaway by Mikael Granlund
BUF 5·ANA 5
OT·0:00
Mikael Granlund faceoff won against Ryan McLeod
·
BUF 5·ANA 5
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
BUF 5·ANA 5
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
BUF 5·ANA 5
3rd·18:46
Giveaway by Alex Tuch
BUF 5·ANA 5
3rd·18:39
Alex Tuch Tip-In Wide Right
·
BUF 5·ANA 5
3rd·18:33
Tage Thompson Slap Shot High and Wide Left
·
BUF 5·ANA 5
3rd·18:27
Giveaway by Ville Husso
BUF 5·ANA 5
3rd·18:16
Tage Thompson faceoff won against Mikael Granlund
·
BUF 5·ANA 5
3rd·18:16
Mikael Granlund Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (22), Leo Carlsson (34)
· ·
BUF 5·ANA 5
3rd·18:01
Mikael Granlund faceoff won against Ryan McLeod
·
BUF 5·ANA 4
3rd·18:01
Timeout - Home
BUF 5·ANA 4
3rd·18:01
Goalie Stopped
BUF 5·ANA 4
3rd·17:59
Chris Kreider Tip-In saved by Alex Lyon
·
BUF 5·ANA 4
3rd·17:55
Giveaway by Cutter Gauthier
BUF 5·ANA 4
3rd·17:26
Mikael Granlund faceoff won against Sam Carrick
·
BUF 5·ANA 4
3rd·17:26
Alex Tuch Tripping against Beckett Sennecke
·
BUF 5·ANA 4
3rd·16:05
Zach Benson Snap Shot saved by Ville Husso
·
BUF 5·ANA 4
3rd·15:49
Jeffrey Viel Deflected Wide Right
·
BUF 5·ANA 4
3rd·15:48
Ryan Poehling faceoff won against Sam Carrick
·
BUF 5·ANA 4
3rd·15:48
Icing
BUF 5·ANA 4
3rd·15:23
Pavel Mintyukov hit Jack Quinn
·
BUF 5·ANA 4

Team stats

BUF

Away

Stat

ANA

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

75.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

ANA -1.5·O/U 6.5·BUF -118/ANA -102

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE

John CarlsonANA · D
SHOT MPH102.799+
Ryan McLeodBUF · C
BURSTS7298
Ryan PoehlingANA · C
SKATE MPH23.498
Josh NorrisBUF · C
xGF%6397
Leo CarlssonANA · C
CORSI%6196

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

37.4%

ensemble · BUF favored

Elo Static
48.4%
P(ANA win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
48.4%
P(ANA win)
16%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
48.4%
P(ANA win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.