NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1BOS

BOS

40-24-8

BUF

44-20-8

NHLWed, Mar 25FinalSeriesBOS wins series 3-1VegasBUF -205

BOS · top performer

David Pastrnak

RW · #88

3Points

—

SOG

BUF · top performer

Jason Zucker

LW · #17

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. ArvidssonLW · #71	1	0	1	3	3	0	0	13:32
M. GeekieC · #39	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	15:53
T. JeannotLW · #84	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	7:32
M. KastelicC · #47	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	9:58
M. KhusnutdinovC · #92	0	1	1	0	0	3	0	18:00
S. KuralyC · #52	0	0	0	3	2	1	0	10:45
E. LindholmC · #28	0	0	0	3	1	1	2	16:41
F. MintenC · #93	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	20:14
C. MittelstadtC · #11	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	14:28
D. PastrnakRW · #88	1	2	3	3	0	0	0	21:56
L. ReichelLW · #75	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	14:59
P. ZachaC · #18	1	1	2	1	3	0	0	14:33

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AspirotD · #45	0	1	1	2	1	1	0	17:41
H. LindholmD · #27	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	20:10
M. LohreiD · #6	0	0	1	0	0	1	2	17:29
C. McAvoyD · #73	0	1	1	1	2	3	2	24:45
A. PeekeD · #26	0	0	1	4	2	1	0	17:15
N. ZadorovD · #91	0	1	2	3	6	2	0	19:58

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. KorpisaloG · #70	25	3	22	.880	60:38

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BensonLW · #6	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	11:35
S. CarrickC · #10	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	10:26
J. DoanRW · #91	0	0	-1	1	3	0	0	14:06
P. KrebsC · #19	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	13:32
B. MalenstynLW · #29	0	0	0	0	3	1	2	12:01
R. McLeodC · #71	0	0	-3	0	0	0	0	17:12
J. NorrisC · #9	0	0	0	2	1	0	2	16:49
N. OstlundC · #86	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:31
J. QuinnRW · #22	0	1	-1	0	1	1	0	16:23
T. ThompsonC · #72	0	2	-1	3	1	0	0	18:44
A. TuchRW · #89	0	0	-2	3	3	1	0	17:49
J. ZuckerLW · #17	2	0	-1	4	0	0	0	15:58

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. ByramD · #4	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	20:15
R. DahlinD · #26	0	0	-3	3	2	0	2	23:45
O. PowerD · #25	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	21:30
M. SamuelssonD · #23	0	0	-1	1	1	3	0	21:16
L. StanleyD · #64	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	14:44
C. TimminsD · #21	0	0	0	2	2	2	0	15:30

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
U. LuukkonenG · #1	31	4	27	.871	60:26

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

BUF

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

66.7

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

Apr 19

BOS3@

BUF4

Apr 21

BOS4@

BUF2

Apr 23

BUF3@

BOS1

Apr 26

BUF6@

BOS1

Apr 28

BOS2@

BUF1

May 1

BUF4@

BOS1

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BUF -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BOS+17037%

BUF-20567%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗

Line movement · 24 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BOS beat BUF 4-3. D. Pastrnak led the way — 1 G · 2 A · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
BOS	1	1	1	1	4
BUF	1	0	2	0	3

Period scoring

BOS won 2 · BUF won 1

BOS

BUF

Play-by-play · 327 plays

period

event

player

OT·0:38
Game End
BOS 4·BUF 3
OT·0:38
End of OT
BOS 4·BUF 3
OT·0:38
Pavel Zacha Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (61), Charlie McAvoy (45)
· ·
BOS 4·BUF 3
OT·0:00
Pavel Zacha faceoff won against Peyton Krebs
·
BOS 3·BUF 3
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
BOS 3·BUF 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
BOS 3·BUF 3
3rd·18:14
Jason Zucker Tip-In Wide Right
·
BOS 3·BUF 3
3rd·18:00
Jason Zucker shot blocked by Charlie McAvoy
·
BOS 3·BUF 3
3rd·17:42
Jack Quinn hit Charlie McAvoy
·
BOS 3·BUF 3
3rd·17:32
Giveaway by Bowen Byram
BOS 3·BUF 3
3rd·16:59
Alex Tuch Slap Shot saved by Joonas Korpisalo
·
BOS 3·BUF 3
3rd·16:52
Josh Norris hit Andrew Peeke
·
BOS 3·BUF 3
3rd·16:43
Fraser Minten faceoff won against Josh Norris
·
BOS 3·BUF 3
3rd·16:43
High Stick
BOS 3·BUF 3
3rd·16:20
Mattias Samuelsson hit Fraser Minten
·
BOS 3·BUF 3
3rd·16:01
Takeaway by Mason Lohrei
BOS 3·BUF 3
3rd·15:32
Pavel Zacha hit Owen Power
·
BOS 3·BUF 3
3rd·15:10
Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Elias Lindholm
· ·
BOS 3·BUF 3
3rd·15:10
Icing
BOS 3·BUF 3
3rd·14:50
Beck Malenstyn hit Marat Khusnutdinov
·
BOS 3·BUF 3
3rd·14:40
Logan Stanley shot blocked by Alex Tuch
·
BOS 3·BUF 3
3rd·14:00
Fraser Minten faceoff won against Josh Norris
·
BOS 3·BUF 3
3rd·14:00
Casey Mittelstadt Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Aspirot (9), Pavel Zacha (30)
· ·
BOS 3·BUF 3
3rd·13:56
Jonathan Aspirot Slap Shot Wide Left
·
BOS 2·BUF 3
3rd·13:52
Casey Mittelstadt hit Josh Doan
·
BOS 2·BUF 3
3rd·13:50
Rasmus Dahlin hit Viktor Arvidsson
·
BOS 2·BUF 3
3rd·13:28
Jason Zucker shot blocked by Andrew Peeke
·
BOS 2·BUF 3
3rd·13:17
Jack Quinn shot blocked by Elias Lindholm
· ·
BOS 2·BUF 3
3rd·13:02
Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Elias Lindholm
· ·
BOS 2·BUF 3
3rd·13:02
Icing
BOS 2·BUF 3

Betting line

BUF -1.5·O/U 6.5·BOS +170/BUF -205

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

oston Bruins went into Buffalo Sabres and beat them, 4–3 in overtime.

BOS +1.5 cashed (BUF lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Jason Zucker · BUF16:000.6259.3%62.8%16:00 TOI · 0.62 iXG · 59.3% CF · 62.8% xGF
David Pastrnak · BOS22:060.4542.9%40.7%22:06 TOI · 0.45 iXG · 42.9% CF · 40.7% xGF
Josh Norris · BUF16:540.3254.1%62.0%16:54 TOI · 0.32 iXG · 54.1% CF · 62.0% xGF
Sean Kuraly · BOS10:480.3252.2%49.2%10:48 TOI · 0.32 iXG · 52.2% CF · 49.2% xGF
Viktor Arvidsson · BOS13:480.2866.7%66.6%13:48 TOI · 0.28 iXG · 66.7% CF · 66.6% xGF
Peyton Krebs · BUF13:480.2641.9%41.6%13:48 TOI · 0.26 iXG · 41.9% CF · 41.6% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Joonas Korpisalo · BOS22–3.880-0.4822–3 · .880 SV% · -0.48 GSAx
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen · BUF27–4.871-1.5327–4 · .871 SV% · -1.53 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.3%

ensemble · BUF favored

Elo Static
64.6%
P(BUF win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
64.6%
P(BUF win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
64.6%
P(BUF win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Team pages

Boston BruinsBuffalo Sabres

Elsewhere in the NHL

Rangers3Maple Leafs4Final