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FINAL+1BOS
BOS

BOS

40-24-8

43
BUF

BUF

44-20-8

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLWed, Mar 25FinalSeriesBOS wins series 3-1VegasBUF -205

Recap · NHL

oston Bruins went into Buffalo Sabres and beat them, 4–3 in overtime.

BOS +1.5 cashed (BUF lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BOS · top performer

BOS
David Pastrnak

David Pastrnak

RW · #88

3Points

1

G

2

A

—

SOG

BUF · top performer

BUF
Tage Thompson

Tage Thompson

C · #72

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · Boston Bruins at Buffalo Sabres · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT
4
3
BOS40-24-8BUF44-20-8
BOS

BOS

40-24-8

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
BUF

BUF

44-20-8

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

PIM

8

Playoff series

Apr 19BOSBOS3@BUFBUF4
Apr 21BOSBOS4@BUFBUF2
Apr 23BUFBUF3@BOSBOS1
Apr 26BUFBUF6@BOSBOS1
Apr 28BOSBOS2@BUFBUF1
May 1BUFBUF4@BOSBOS1

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BUF -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BOSBOS+17037%
BUFBUF-20567%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BOS beat BUF 4-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTT
BOS11114
BUF10203

Period scoring

BOS won 2 · BUF won 1

1
1

1

1
0

2

1
2

3

1
0

OT

BOS
BUF

Play-by-play · 327 plays

period
event
player
  1. OT·0:38

    Game End

    BOS 4·BUF 3

  2. OT·0:38

    End of OT

    BOS 4·BUF 3

  3. OT·0:38

    Pavel Zacha Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (61), Charlie McAvoy (45)

    · ·

    BOS 4·BUF 3

  4. OT·0:00

    Pavel Zacha faceoff won against Peyton Krebs

    ·

    BOS 3·BUF 3

  5. OT·0:00

    Start of Overtime

    BOS 3·BUF 3

  6. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    BOS 3·BUF 3

  7. 3rd·18:14

    Jason Zucker Tip-In Wide Right

    ·

    BOS 3·BUF 3

  8. 3rd·18:00

    Jason Zucker shot blocked by Charlie McAvoy

    ·

    BOS 3·BUF 3

  9. 3rd·17:42

    Jack Quinn hit Charlie McAvoy

    ·

    BOS 3·BUF 3

  10. 3rd·17:32

    Giveaway by Bowen Byram

    BOS 3·BUF 3

  11. 3rd·16:59

    Alex Tuch Slap Shot saved by Joonas Korpisalo

    ·

    BOS 3·BUF 3

  12. 3rd·16:52

    Josh Norris hit Andrew Peeke

    ·

    BOS 3·BUF 3

  13. 3rd·16:43

    Fraser Minten faceoff won against Josh Norris

    ·

    BOS 3·BUF 3

  14. 3rd·16:43

    High Stick

    BOS 3·BUF 3

  15. 3rd·16:20

    Mattias Samuelsson hit Fraser Minten

    ·

    BOS 3·BUF 3

  16. 3rd·16:01

    Takeaway by Mason Lohrei

    BOS 3·BUF 3

  17. 3rd·15:32

    Pavel Zacha hit Owen Power

    ·

    BOS 3·BUF 3

  18. 3rd·15:10

    Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Elias Lindholm

    · ·

    BOS 3·BUF 3

  19. 3rd·15:10

    Icing

    BOS 3·BUF 3

  20. 3rd·14:50

    Beck Malenstyn hit Marat Khusnutdinov

    ·

    BOS 3·BUF 3

  21. 3rd·14:40

    Logan Stanley shot blocked by Alex Tuch

    ·

    BOS 3·BUF 3

  22. 3rd·14:00

    Fraser Minten faceoff won against Josh Norris

    ·

    BOS 3·BUF 3

  23. 3rd·14:00

    Casey Mittelstadt Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Aspirot (9), Pavel Zacha (30)

    · ·

    BOS 3·BUF 3

  24. 3rd·13:56

    Jonathan Aspirot Slap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    BOS 2·BUF 3

  25. 3rd·13:52

    Casey Mittelstadt hit Josh Doan

    ·

    BOS 2·BUF 3

  26. 3rd·13:50

    Rasmus Dahlin hit Viktor Arvidsson

    ·

    BOS 2·BUF 3

  27. 3rd·13:28

    Jason Zucker shot blocked by Andrew Peeke

    ·

    BOS 2·BUF 3

  28. 3rd·13:17

    Jack Quinn shot blocked by Elias Lindholm

    · ·

    BOS 2·BUF 3

  29. 3rd·13:02

    Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Elias Lindholm

    · ·

    BOS 2·BUF 3

  30. 3rd·13:02

    Icing

    BOS 2·BUF 3

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

BUF

Home

31

Shots

25

0.0

PCT

66.7

10

PIM

8

33

Faceoffs W

29

19

Blocks

13

15

Giveaways

11

3

Takeaways

4

Betting line

BUF -1.5·O/U 6.5·BOS +170/BUF -205

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Ryan McLeodBUF · C
    BURSTS7299
  • Marat KhusnutdinovBOS · C
    SKATE MPH23.092
  • Rasmus DahlinBUF · D
    DIST MI46.992
  • Bowen ByramBUF · D
    BURSTS1691
  • Logan StanleyBUF · D
    SHOT MPH95.991

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · BUF favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR