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FINAL+2BUF
BUF

BUF

48-23-8

53
NYR

NYR

33-37-9

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLWed, Apr 8FinalSeriesBUF wins series 2-1VegasBUF -135

Recap · NHL

uffalo Sabres went into New York Rangers and beat them, 5–3.

BUF -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BUF · top performer

BUF
Zach Benson

Zach Benson

LW · #6

2Points

2

G

0

A

—

SOG

NYR · top performer

NYR
Alexis Lafreniere

Alexis Lafreniere

LW · #13

2Points

2

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Buffalo Sabres at New York Rangers · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
5
3
BUF48-23-8NYR33-37-9
BUF

BUF

48-23-8

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
NYR

NYR

33-37-9

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

PIM

8

Season series

BUF wins series 2-1

Oct 9NYRNYR4@BUFBUF0
Jan 9BUFBUF5@NYRNYR2
Apr 8BUFBUF5@NYRNYR3today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BUF -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BUFBUF-13557%
NYRNYR+11447%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BUF beat NYR 5-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
BUF2035
NYR1203

Period scoring

BUF won 2 · NYR won 1

2
1

1

0
2

2

3
0

3

BUF
NYR

Play-by-play · 291 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    BUF 5·NYR 3

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    BUF 5·NYR 3

  3. 3rd·19:55

    Jack Quinn shot blocked by Braden Schneider

    ·

    BUF 5·NYR 3

  4. 3rd·19:52

    Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Noah Laba

    ·

    BUF 5·NYR 3

  5. 3rd·19:52

    Off-side

    BUF 5·NYR 3

  6. 3rd·19:43

    Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Vincent Trocheck

    ·

    BUF 5·NYR 3

  7. 3rd·19:43

    Icing

    BUF 5·NYR 3

  8. 3rd·19:38

    Giveaway by Alexis Lafrenière

    BUF 5·NYR 3

  9. 3rd·19:10

    Mika Zibanejad Slap Shot Hit Left Post

    ·

    BUF 5·NYR 3

  10. 3rd·19:08

    Vincent Trocheck faceoff won against Tyson Kozak

    ·

    BUF 5·NYR 3

  11. 3rd·19:08

    Icing

    BUF 5·NYR 3

  12. 3rd·19:00

    Alex Tuch faceoff won against J.T. Miller

    ·

    BUF 5·NYR 3

  13. 3rd·19:00

    Puck in Crowd

    BUF 5·NYR 3

  14. 3rd·18:54

    Giveaway by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

    BUF 5·NYR 3

  15. 3rd·18:45

    Noah Laba faceoff won against Tyson Kozak

    ·

    BUF 5·NYR 3

  16. 3rd·18:45

    Zach Benson Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Josh Doan (26), Josh Norris (19)

    · ·

    BUF 5·NYR 3

  17. 3rd·18:25

    J.T. Miller Snap Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

    ·

    BUF 4·NYR 3

  18. 3rd·18:05

    Tyson Kozak hit Tye Kartye

    ·

    BUF 4·NYR 3

  19. 3rd·17:33

    Braden Schneider hit Beck Malenstyn

    ·

    BUF 4·NYR 3

  20. 3rd·17:03

    Giveaway by Noah Laba

    BUF 4·NYR 3

  21. 3rd·15:52

    Tage Thompson Snap Shot saved by Igor Shesterkin

    ·

    BUF 4·NYR 3

  22. 3rd·15:40

    Tage Thompson faceoff won against Vincent Trocheck

    ·

    BUF 4·NYR 3

  23. 3rd·15:40

    Icing

    BUF 4·NYR 3

  24. 3rd·15:24

    Takeaway by Owen Power

    BUF 4·NYR 3

  25. 3rd·14:39

    Gabe Perreault hit Zach Benson

    ·

    BUF 4·NYR 3

  26. 3rd·14:24

    Tyson Kozak hit Gabe Perreault

    ·

    BUF 4·NYR 3

  27. 3rd·14:14

    Tyson Kozak faceoff won against Mika Zibanejad

    ·

    BUF 4·NYR 3

  28. 3rd·14:14

    Icing

    BUF 4·NYR 3

  29. 3rd·13:57

    Jonny Brodzinski faceoff won against Tyson Kozak

    ·

    BUF 4·NYR 3

  30. 3rd·13:57

    Icing

    BUF 4·NYR 3

Team stats

BUF

Away

Stat

NYR

Home

27

Shots

20

0.0

PCT

66.7

6

PIM

8

23

Faceoffs W

29

19

Blocks

11

17

Giveaways

12

6

Takeaways

4

Betting line

BUF -1.5·O/U 6.5·BUF -135/NYR +114

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • J.T. MillerNYR · LW
    SHOT MPH102.699+
  • Ryan McLeodBUF · C
    BURSTS7299
  • Vladislav GavrikovNYR · D
    DIST MI263.494
  • Rasmus DahlinBUF · D
    DIST MI46.992
  • Noah LabaNYR · C
    BURSTS17992

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · NYR favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NYR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NYR win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NYR win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR