Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BOS at BUF?

The model favors BUF, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1BOS

BOS

45-27-10

BUF

50-23-9

NHLTue, Apr 28FinalSeriesBOS wins series 3-1VegasBUF -175

BOS · top performer

David Pastrnak

RW · #88

1Points

—

SOG

BUF · top performer

Rasmus Dahlin

D · #26

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. EyssimontC · #81	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	12:53
M. GeekieC · #39	0	0	1	2	4	1	0	18:46
T. JeannotLW · #84	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	11:25
M. KastelicC · #47	0	0	0	0	4	3	2	11:50
M. KhusnutdinovC · #92	0	0	1	1	5	1	2	21:30
S. KuralyC · #52	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	13:30
E. LindholmC · #28	1	0	1	3	4	2	0	21:01
F. MintenC · #93	0	0	0	1	3	3	0	16:50
C. MittelstadtC · #11	0	0	1	2	4	0	0	17:25
D. PastrnakRW · #88	1	0	1	7	2	1	0	25:15
A. SteevesC · #21	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	13:23
P. ZachaC · #18	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	24:19

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AspirotD · #45	0	0	1	2	2	2	0	20:51
H. JokiharjuD · #20	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	17:27
H. LindholmD · #27	0	1	1	1	1	1	2	21:54
C. McAvoyD · #73	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	26:24
A. PeekeD · #26	0	0	1	0	1	3	0	22:52
N. ZadorovD · #91	0	0	0	2	2	2	0	23:11

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. SwaymanG · #1	26	1	25	.962	69:14

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BensonLW · #6	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	14:30
J. DoanRW · #91	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	15:40
J. GreenwayLW · #12	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	11:29
T. KozakC · #48	0	0	0	1	7	0	0	16:55
P. KrebsC · #19	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	24:28
B. MalenstynLW · #29	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	12:25
R. McLeodC · #71	0	0	-2	1	0	0	2	21:18
N. OstlundC · #86	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	2:55
J. QuinnRW · #22	0	0	-2	1	4	0	0	17:29
T. ThompsonC · #72	0	1	0	2	0	4	0	24:30
A. TuchRW · #89	0	0	0	3	3	3	2	23:54
J. ZuckerLW · #17	0	1	-1	2	0	0	0	20:40

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. ByramD · #4	0	0	-2	3	0	0	0	23:23
R. DahlinD · #26	1	0	0	3	1	2	0	29:01
O. PowerD · #25	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	23:21
M. SamuelssonD · #23	0	0	-1	2	4	2	0	26:13
L. StanleyD · #64	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	14:51
C. TimminsD · #21	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	17:08

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. LyonG · #34	29	2	27	.931	69:14

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

BUF

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

33.3

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

BUF leads series 3-2

Apr 19

BOS3@

BUF4

Apr 21

BOS4@

BUF2

Apr 23

BUF3@

BOS1

Apr 26

BUF6@

BOS1

Apr 28

BOS2@

BUF1today

May 1

BUF4@

BOS1

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BUF -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BOS+14541%

BUF-17564%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗

Line movement · 69 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BOS beat BUF 2-1. D. Pastrnak led the way — 1 G · 7 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
BOS	0	1	0	1	2
BUF	1	0	0	0	1

Period scoring

BOS won 2 · BUF won 1

BOS

BUF

Play-by-play · 387 plays

period

event

player

1st OT·9:14
Game End
BOS 2·BUF 1
1st OT·9:14
End of OT
BOS 2·BUF 1
1st OT·9:14
David Pastrnak Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Hampus Lindholm (1)
· ·
BOS 2·BUF 1
1st OT·8:55
Rasmus Dahlin shot blocked by Morgan Geekie
·
BOS 1·BUF 1
1st OT·8:52
Takeaway by Alex Tuch
BOS 1·BUF 1
1st OT·8:47
Alex Tuch Wrist Shot saved by Jeremy Swayman
·
BOS 1·BUF 1
1st OT·8:45
Rasmus Dahlin shot blocked by Henri Jokiharju
·
BOS 1·BUF 1
1st OT·8:36
Hampus Lindholm hit Peyton Krebs
· ·
BOS 1·BUF 1
1st OT·8:33
Peyton Krebs shot blocked by Hampus Lindholm
· ·
BOS 1·BUF 1
1st OT·8:21
Giveaway by Morgan Geekie
BOS 1·BUF 1
1st OT·8:02
Tage Thompson Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
BOS 1·BUF 1
1st OT·7:57
Alex Tuch Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
BOS 1·BUF 1
1st OT·7:54
Alex Tuch Wrist Shot saved by Jeremy Swayman
·
BOS 1·BUF 1
1st OT·7:33
Jordan Greenway Deflected Wide Left
·
BOS 1·BUF 1
1st OT·7:08
Logan Stanley Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
BOS 1·BUF 1
1st OT·7:05
Tyson Kozak faceoff won against Fraser Minten
·
BOS 1·BUF 1
1st OT·7:05
Goalie Stopped
BOS 1·BUF 1
1st OT·7:02
Ryan McLeod Backhand saved by Jeremy Swayman
·
BOS 1·BUF 1
1st OT·6:50
Elias Lindholm faceoff won against Ryan McLeod
· ·
BOS 1·BUF 1
1st OT·6:50
Icing
BOS 1·BUF 1
1st OT·6:40
Mattias Samuelsson Wrist Shot saved by Jeremy Swayman
·
BOS 1·BUF 1
1st OT·6:33
Sean Kuraly hit Tage Thompson
·
BOS 1·BUF 1
1st OT·6:31
Mattias Samuelsson hit Mark Kastelic
·
BOS 1·BUF 1
1st OT·6:27
Giveaway by Rasmus Dahlin
BOS 1·BUF 1
1st OT·5:58
Tanner Jeannot Slap Shot saved by Alex Lyon
·
BOS 1·BUF 1
1st OT·5:56
Giveaway by Bowen Byram
BOS 1·BUF 1
1st OT·5:08
Tyson Kozak faceoff won against Pavel Zacha
·
BOS 1·BUF 1
1st OT·5:08
Icing
BOS 1·BUF 1
1st OT·4:51
Fraser Minten faceoff won against Tyson Kozak
·
BOS 1·BUF 1
1st OT·4:51
Puck in Crowd
BOS 1·BUF 1

Betting line

BUF -1.5·O/U 5.5·BOS +145/BUF -175

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

oston Bruins went into Buffalo Sabres and beat them, 2–1 in overtime.

BOS +1.5 cashed (BUF lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE

Ryan McLeodBUF · C
BURSTS7298
Josh DoanBUF · RW
iXG26.793
Marat KhusnutdinovBOS · C
SKATE MPH23.091
Rasmus DahlinBUF · D
SHOT MPH96.091
Logan StanleyBUF · D
SHOT MPH95.991

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.3%

ensemble · BUF favored

Elo Static
64.8%
P(BUF win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
64.8%
P(BUF win)
16%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
64.8%
P(BUF win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-175

Close price

-175

Open no-vig

60.9%

Close no-vig

60.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BOS at BUF?: The model favors BUF, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.