Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MTL at BUF?

The model favors BUF, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4MTL

MTL

48-24-10

BUF

50-23-9

NHLFri, May 8FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasBUF -162

MTL · top performer

Alex Newhook

C · #15

2Points

—

SOG

BUF · top performer

Josh Doan

RW · #91

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AndersonRW · #17	0	1	2	0	1	0	12	14:29
Z. BolducRW · #76	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	12:02
C. CaufieldRW · #13	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	17:06
K. DachC · #77	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:18
P. DanaultC · #24	0	1	3	0	2	2	0	14:33
I. DemidovRW · #93	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	13:18
J. EvansC · #71	0	1	2	2	0	0	0	16:32
A. NewhookC · #15	2	0	2	4	0	1	0	16:46
J. SlafkovskyLW · #20	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	17:56
N. SuzukiC · #14	1	0	0	4	1	0	0	20:03
A. TexierLW · #85	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	9:21
J. VelenoC · #90	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	10:32

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. CarrierD · #45	1	0	4	1	2	1	4	19:38
N. DobsonD · #53	0	1	-1	5	1	5	0	16:20
K. GuhleD · #21	0	1	0	1	2	2	2	20:56
L. HutsonD · #48	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	20:54
M. MathesonD · #8	1	0	3	3	1	3	0	26:44
A. XhekajD · #72	0	0	1	0	3	0	2	9:32

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DobesG · #75	29	1	28	.966	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BensonLW · #6	1	0	0	1	4	0	2	19:25
J. DoanRW · #91	0	1	0	4	2	0	2	16:28
J. GreenwayLW · #12	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	12:55
T. KozakC · #48	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:02
P. KrebsC · #19	0	0	-1	1	4	1	0	12:25
B. MalenstynLW · #29	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7:11
R. McLeodC · #71	0	0	-2	2	0	0	0	17:17
J. NorrisC · #9	0	0	-1	3	4	0	0	17:39
J. QuinnRW · #22	0	0	-1	0	1	1	0	14:30
T. ThompsonC · #72	0	0	-4	1	6	0	0	18:38
A. TuchRW · #89	0	0	-3	6	2	1	0	20:19
J. ZuckerLW · #17	0	0	-2	2	1	0	0	11:08

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. ByramD · #4	0	0	-3	1	2	0	2	21:27
R. DahlinD · #26	0	0	-1	5	1	0	2	22:17
O. PowerD · #25	0	0	-2	0	2	1	0	20:18
M. SamuelssonD · #23	0	0	0	0	10	3	2	19:47
L. StanleyD · #64	0	0	-1	1	2	0	2	10:27
C. TimminsD · #21	0	1	0	0	1	4	0	18:08

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. LyonG · #34	27	4	23	.852	58:13

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

MTL

Away

Stat

BUF

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

Series tied 1-1

May 6

MTL2@

BUF4

May 8

MTL5@

BUF1today

May 10

BUF2@

MTL6

May 12

BUF3@

MTL2

May 14

MTL6@

BUF3

May 17

BUF8@

MTL3

May 18

MTL3@

BUF2

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BUF -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MTL+13642%

BUF-16262%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MTL beat BUF 5-1. A. Newhook led the way — 2 G · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
MTL	2	1	2	5
BUF	0	1	0	1

Period scoring

MTL won 2 · BUF won 0

MTL

BUF

Play-by-play · 328 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
MTL 5·BUF 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
MTL 5·BUF 1
3rd·19:19
Arber Xhekaj hit Conor Timmins
·
MTL 5·BUF 1
3rd·18:36
Arber Xhekaj Slap Shot Above Crossbar
·
MTL 5·BUF 1
3rd·18:34
Joseph Veleno faceoff won against Tyson Kozak
·
MTL 5·BUF 1
3rd·18:34
Zach Benson Cross-checking against Mike Matheson
·
MTL 5·BUF 1
3rd·17:46
Ryan McLeod Tip-In saved by Jakub Dobes
·
MTL 5·BUF 1
3rd·17:32
Josh Doan Slap Shot High and Wide Left
·
MTL 5·BUF 1
3rd·17:18
Peyton Krebs faceoff won against Jake Evans
·
MTL 5·BUF 1
3rd·17:18
Timeout - Home
MTL 5·BUF 1
3rd·17:18
Josh Anderson Misconduct
MTL 5·BUF 1
3rd·17:18
Josh Anderson Cross-checking against Jordan Greenway served by Ivan Demidov
· ·
MTL 5·BUF 1
3rd·17:13
Owen Power shot blocked by Noah Dobson
·
MTL 5·BUF 1
3rd·16:21
Takeaway by Joe Veleno
MTL 5·BUF 1
3rd·15:59
Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Kirby Dach
·
MTL 5·BUF 1
3rd·15:59
Nick Suzuki Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Anderson (2)
·
MTL 5·BUF 1
3rd·15:38
Giveaway by Bowen Byram
MTL 4·BUF 1
3rd·15:27
Nick Suzuki faceoff won against Josh Norris
·
MTL 4·BUF 1
3rd·15:27
Puck in Benches
MTL 4·BUF 1
3rd·14:35
Takeaway by Jordan Greenway
MTL 4·BUF 1
3rd·13:49
Cole Caufield Slap Shot Off Crossbar
·
MTL 4·BUF 1
3rd·13:31
Ivan Demidov shot blocked by Mattias Samuelsson
·
MTL 4·BUF 1
3rd·13:26
Mattias Samuelsson hit Nick Suzuki
·
MTL 4·BUF 1
3rd·13:08
Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Nick Suzuki
·
MTL 4·BUF 1
3rd·13:08
Bowen Byram Elbowing against Zachary Bolduc
·
MTL 4·BUF 1
3rd·13:02
Bowen Byram hit Zachary Bolduc
·
MTL 4·BUF 1
3rd·12:40
Josh Norris hit Lane Hutson
·
MTL 4·BUF 1
3rd·12:38
Josh Doan hit Noah Dobson
·
MTL 4·BUF 1
3rd·12:17
Josh Doan Wrist Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
MTL 4·BUF 1
3rd·12:16
Josh Norris Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
MTL 4·BUF 1

Betting line

BUF -1.5·O/U 5.5·MTL +136/BUF -162

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ontreal Canadiens went into Buffalo Sabres and beat them, 5–1.

MTL +1.5 cashed (BUF lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Cole Caufield · MTL17:120.5866.7%84.0%17:12 TOI · 0.58 iXG · 66.7% CF · 84.0% xGF
Alex Newhook · MTL17:000.5440.0%44.9%17:00 TOI · 0.54 iXG · 40.0% CF · 44.9% xGF
Alex Tuch · WSH20:180.4263.4%52.1%20:18 TOI · 0.42 iXG · 63.4% CF · 52.1% xGF
Nick Suzuki · MTL20:180.4259.0%76.9%20:18 TOI · 0.42 iXG · 59.0% CF · 76.9% xGF
Josh Anderson · MTL14:300.3827.6%37.6%14:30 TOI · 0.38 iXG · 27.6% CF · 37.6% xGF
Josh Norris · BUF17:540.3877.1%70.8%17:54 TOI · 0.38 iXG · 77.1% CF · 70.8% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Jakub Dobes · MTL28–1.966+1.2828–1 · .966 SV% · +1.28 GSAx
Alex Lyon · BUF23–4.852-1.1323–4 · .852 SV% · -1.13 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.8%

ensemble · BUF favored

Elo Static
58.8%
P(BUF win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
58.8%
P(BUF win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
58.8%
P(BUF win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-135

Close price

-135

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MTL at BUF?: The model favors BUF, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Montreal CanadiensBuffalo Sabres

Elsewhere in the NHL

Golden Knights6Ducks2Final