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FINAL+4MTL
MTL

MTL

48-24-10

51
BUF

BUF

50-23-9

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 997 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLFri, May 8FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasBUF -162

Recap · NHL

ontreal Canadiens went into Buffalo Sabres and beat them, 5–1.

MTL +1.5 cashed (BUF lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MTL · top performer

MTL
Alex Newhook

Alex Newhook

C · #15

2Points

2

G

0

A

—

SOG

BUF · top performer

BUF
Zach Benson

Zach Benson

LW · #6

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Montreal Canadiens at Buffalo Sabres · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
5
1
MTL48-24-10BUF50-23-9
MTL

MTL

48-24-10

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
BUF

BUF

50-23-9

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

22

PIM

12

Playoff series

Series tied 1-1

May 6MTLMTL2@BUFBUF4
May 8MTLMTL5@BUFBUF1today
May 10BUFBUF2@MTLMTL6
May 12BUFBUF3@MTLMTL2
May 14MTLMTL6@BUFBUF3
May 17BUFBUF8@MTLMTL3
May 18MTLMTL3@BUFBUF2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BUF -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MTLMTL+13642%
BUFBUF-16262%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MTL beat BUF 5-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
MTL2125
BUF0101

Period scoring

MTL won 2 · BUF won 0

2
0

1

1
1

2

2
0

3

MTL
BUF

Play-by-play · 328 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    MTL 5·BUF 1

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    MTL 5·BUF 1

  3. 3rd·19:19

    Arber Xhekaj hit Conor Timmins

    ·

    MTL 5·BUF 1

  4. 3rd·18:36

    Arber Xhekaj Slap Shot Above Crossbar

    ·

    MTL 5·BUF 1

  5. 3rd·18:34

    Joseph Veleno faceoff won against Tyson Kozak

    ·

    MTL 5·BUF 1

  6. 3rd·18:34

    Zach Benson Cross-checking against Mike Matheson

    ·

    MTL 5·BUF 1

  7. 3rd·17:46

    Ryan McLeod Tip-In saved by Jakub Dobes

    ·

    MTL 5·BUF 1

  8. 3rd·17:32

    Josh Doan Slap Shot High and Wide Left

    ·

    MTL 5·BUF 1

  9. 3rd·17:18

    Peyton Krebs faceoff won against Jake Evans

    ·

    MTL 5·BUF 1

  10. 3rd·17:18

    Timeout - Home

    MTL 5·BUF 1

  11. 3rd·17:18

    Josh Anderson Misconduct

    MTL 5·BUF 1

  12. 3rd·17:18

    Josh Anderson Cross-checking against Jordan Greenway served by Ivan Demidov

    · ·

    MTL 5·BUF 1

  13. 3rd·17:13

    Owen Power shot blocked by Noah Dobson

    ·

    MTL 5·BUF 1

  14. 3rd·16:21

    Takeaway by Joe Veleno

    MTL 5·BUF 1

  15. 3rd·15:59

    Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Kirby Dach

    ·

    MTL 5·BUF 1

  16. 3rd·15:59

    Nick Suzuki Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Josh Anderson (2)

    ·

    MTL 5·BUF 1

  17. 3rd·15:38

    Giveaway by Bowen Byram

    MTL 4·BUF 1

  18. 3rd·15:27

    Nick Suzuki faceoff won against Josh Norris

    ·

    MTL 4·BUF 1

  19. 3rd·15:27

    Puck in Benches

    MTL 4·BUF 1

  20. 3rd·14:35

    Takeaway by Jordan Greenway

    MTL 4·BUF 1

  21. 3rd·13:49

    Cole Caufield Slap Shot Off Crossbar

    ·

    MTL 4·BUF 1

  22. 3rd·13:31

    Ivan Demidov shot blocked by Mattias Samuelsson

    ·

    MTL 4·BUF 1

  23. 3rd·13:26

    Mattias Samuelsson hit Nick Suzuki

    ·

    MTL 4·BUF 1

  24. 3rd·13:08

    Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Nick Suzuki

    ·

    MTL 4·BUF 1

  25. 3rd·13:08

    Bowen Byram Elbowing against Zachary Bolduc

    ·

    MTL 4·BUF 1

  26. 3rd·13:02

    Bowen Byram hit Zachary Bolduc

    ·

    MTL 4·BUF 1

  27. 3rd·12:40

    Josh Norris hit Lane Hutson

    ·

    MTL 4·BUF 1

  28. 3rd·12:38

    Josh Doan hit Noah Dobson

    ·

    MTL 4·BUF 1

  29. 3rd·12:17

    Josh Doan Wrist Shot saved by Jakub Dobes

    ·

    MTL 4·BUF 1

  30. 3rd·12:16

    Josh Norris Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes

    ·

    MTL 4·BUF 1

Team stats

MTL

Away

Stat

BUF

Home

28

Shots

29

0.0

PCT

0.0

22

PIM

12

30

Faceoffs W

23

18

Blocks

11

11

Giveaways

13

7

Takeaways

4

Betting line

BUF -1.5·O/U 5.5·MTL +136/BUF -162

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Josh AndersonMTL · RW
    BURSTS7599
  • Ryan McLeodBUF · C
    BURSTS7299
  • Lane HutsonMTL · D
    BURSTS2398
  • Arber XhekajMTL · D
    SHOT MPH98.598
  • Alex NewhookMTL · C
    BURSTS4896

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · BUF favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-135

Close price

-135

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR