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FINAL+1BUF
SEA

SEA

32-29-11

23
BUF

BUF

45-21-8

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Mar 28FinalSeriesBUF wins series 2-0VegasBUF -198

Recap · NHL

uffalo Sabres held off Seattle Kraken, 3–2.

SEA +1.5 cashed (BUF won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SEA · top performer

SEA
Kaapo Kakko

Kaapo Kakko

RW · #84

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

BUF · top performer

BUF
Zach Benson

Zach Benson

LW · #6

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Seattle Kraken at Buffalo Sabres · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final/SO
2
3
SEA32-29-11BUF45-21-8
SEA

SEA

32-29-11

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
BUF

BUF

45-21-8

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

PIM

13

Season series

BUF wins series 2-0

Dec 15BUFBUF3@SEASEA1
Mar 28SEASEA2@BUFBUF3today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BUF -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SEASEA+16438%
BUFBUF-19866%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BUF beat SEA 3-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTSOT
SEA110002
BUF011013

Period scoring

SEA won 1 · BUF won 2

1
0

1

1
1

2

0
1

3

0
0

OT

0
1

SO

SEA
BUF

Play-by-play · 348 plays

period
event
player
  1. SO·0:00

    Game End

    SEA 0·BUF 2

  2. SO·0:00

    End of OT

    SEA 0·BUF 2

  3. SO·0:00

    End of Shootout

    SEA 0·BUF 2

  4. SO·0:00

    Kaapo Kakko Snap Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

    ·

    SEA 0·BUF 2

  5. SO·0:00

    Jack Quinn Goal Snap Shot

    SEA 0·BUF 2

  6. SO·0:00

    Freddy Gaudreau Wrist Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

    ·

    SEA 0·BUF 2

  7. SO·0:00

    Tage Thompson Goal Snap Shot

    SEA 0·BUF 2

  8. SO·0:00

    Start of Shootout

    SEA 0·BUF 2

  9. OT·5:00

    End of OT

    SEA 2·BUF 2

  10. OT·4:58

    Josh Norris Snap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    SEA 2·BUF 2

  11. OT·4:11

    Alex Tuch Backhand saved by Philipp Grubauer

    ·

    SEA 2·BUF 2

  12. OT·4:04

    Matty Beniers shot blocked by Alex Tuch

    ·

    SEA 2·BUF 2

  13. OT·3:52

    Tage Thompson Snap Shot saved by Philipp Grubauer

    ·

    SEA 2·BUF 2

  14. OT·3:38

    Sam Carrick faceoff won against Matty Beniers

    ·

    SEA 2·BUF 2

  15. OT·3:38

    Goalie Stopped

    SEA 2·BUF 2

  16. OT·3:36

    Jack Quinn Snap Shot saved by Philipp Grubauer

    ·

    SEA 2·BUF 2

  17. OT·3:12

    Tage Thompson Slap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    SEA 2·BUF 2

  18. OT·2:29

    Takeaway by Brandon Montour

    SEA 2·BUF 2

  19. OT·2:18

    Tage Thompson Snap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    SEA 2·BUF 2

  20. OT·0:37

    Matty Beniers faceoff won against Josh Norris

    ·

    SEA 2·BUF 2

  21. OT·0:37

    Icing

    SEA 2·BUF 2

  22. OT·0:18

    Takeaway by Alex Tuch

    SEA 2·BUF 2

  23. OT·0:00

    Chandler Stephenson faceoff won against Sam Carrick

    ·

    SEA 2·BUF 2

  24. OT·0:00

    Start of Overtime

    SEA 2·BUF 2

  25. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    SEA 2·BUF 2

  26. 3rd·19:51

    Sam Carrick faceoff won against Chandler Stephenson

    ·

    SEA 2·BUF 2

  27. 3rd·19:51

    Puck in Netting

    SEA 2·BUF 2

  28. 3rd·19:49

    Peyton Krebs shot blocked by Ryker Evans

    ·

    SEA 2·BUF 2

  29. 3rd·19:44

    Giveaway by Chandler Stephenson

    SEA 2·BUF 2

  30. 3rd·19:39

    Giveaway by Peyton Krebs

    SEA 2·BUF 2

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

BUF

Home

34

Shots

36

0.0

PCT

33.3

11

PIM

13

28

Faceoffs W

31

17

Blocks

10

14

Giveaways

18

6

Takeaways

6

Betting line

BUF -1.5·O/U 6.5·SEA +164/BUF -198

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Bobby McMannSEA · C
    SKATE MPH24.399
  • Ryan McLeodBUF · C
    BURSTS7299
  • Brandon MontourSEA · D
    SHOT MPH101.698
  • Matty BeniersSEA · C
    DIST MI267.798
  • Jared McCannSEA · LW
    SHOT MPH94.496

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · BUF favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-198

Close price

-198

Open no-vig

63.7%

Close no-vig

63.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR