Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SEA at BUF?

The model favors BUF, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1BUF

SEA

32-29-11

BUF

45-21-8

NHLSat, Mar 28FinalSeriesBUF wins series 2-0VegasBUF -198

SEA · top performer

Bobby McMann

C · #74

2Points

—

SOG

BUF · top performer

Rasmus Dahlin

D · #26

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final/SO

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BeniersC · #10	0	0	-1	3	1	2	0	21:36
B. CattonC · #27	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	17:50
J. EberleRW · #7	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	19:30
O. Fisker MolgaardC · #78	0	0	0	2	1	0	2	10:40
F. GaudreauC · #89	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	17:54
K. KakkoRW · #84	0	2	2	0	0	0	0	17:02
J. McCannLW · #19	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	15:16
B. McMannC · #74	1	1	2	3	2	0	0	20:14
B. MeyersC · #59	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	11:44
C. StephensonC · #9	1	1	2	2	0	1	0	23:03
E. TolvanenRW · #20	0	0	0	3	1	2	0	14:54
S. WrightC · #51	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3:36

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. DunnD · #29	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	23:07
R. EvansD · #41	0	0	0	1	2	3	0	22:20
A. LarssonD · #6	0	0	0	3	1	1	4	18:37
R. LindgrenD · #55	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	14:07
B. MontourD · #62	0	0	0	7	2	0	0	26:25
J. OleksiakD · #24	0	0	1	0	2	1	5	12:54

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. GrubauerG · #31	36	2	34	.944	65:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BensonLW · #6	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	14:39
S. CarrickC · #10	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	10:50
J. DoanRW · #91	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	13:21
T. KozakC · #48	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	7:51
P. KrebsC · #19	1	0	1	3	3	0	0	15:17
B. MalenstynLW · #29	0	0	0	2	4	1	0	10:44
R. McLeodC · #71	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	16:44
J. NorrisC · #9	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	15:08
J. QuinnRW · #22	0	1	-1	4	3	0	0	17:06
T. ThompsonC · #72	0	1	-1	5	1	0	0	24:21
A. TuchRW · #89	0	0	0	3	0	2	2	24:32
J. ZuckerLW · #17	0	0	-1	2	1	0	0	14:05

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. ByramD · #4	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	21:29
R. DahlinD · #26	1	0	-2	4	1	1	4	25:10
O. PowerD · #25	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	20:32
M. SamuelssonD · #23	0	0	-1	3	4	1	0	26:14
L. StanleyD · #64	0	0	0	1	2	2	7	12:17
C. TimminsD · #21	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	16:40

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
U. LuukkonenG · #1	34	2	32	.941	65:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

BUF

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

33.3

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

BUF wins series 2-0

Dec 15

BUF3@

SEA1

Mar 28

SEA2@

BUF3today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BUF -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SEA+16438%

BUF-19866%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗

Line movement · 50 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BUF beat SEA 3-2. R. Dahlin led the way — 1 G · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	SO	T
SEA	1	1	0	0	0	2
BUF	0	1	1	0	1	3

Period scoring

SEA won 1 · BUF won 2

SEA

BUF

Play-by-play · 348 plays

period

event

player

SO·0:00
Game End
SEA 0·BUF 2
SO·0:00
End of OT
SEA 0·BUF 2
SO·0:00
End of Shootout
SEA 0·BUF 2
SO·0:00
Kaapo Kakko Snap Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
·
SEA 0·BUF 2
SO·0:00
Jack Quinn Goal Snap Shot
SEA 0·BUF 2
SO·0:00
Freddy Gaudreau Wrist Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
·
SEA 0·BUF 2
SO·0:00
Tage Thompson Goal Snap Shot
SEA 0·BUF 2
SO·0:00
Start of Shootout
SEA 0·BUF 2
OT·5:00
End of OT
SEA 2·BUF 2
OT·4:58
Josh Norris Snap Shot Wide Left
·
SEA 2·BUF 2
OT·4:11
Alex Tuch Backhand saved by Philipp Grubauer
·
SEA 2·BUF 2
OT·4:04
Matty Beniers shot blocked by Alex Tuch
·
SEA 2·BUF 2
OT·3:52
Tage Thompson Snap Shot saved by Philipp Grubauer
·
SEA 2·BUF 2
OT·3:38
Sam Carrick faceoff won against Matty Beniers
·
SEA 2·BUF 2
OT·3:38
Goalie Stopped
SEA 2·BUF 2
OT·3:36
Jack Quinn Snap Shot saved by Philipp Grubauer
·
SEA 2·BUF 2
OT·3:12
Tage Thompson Slap Shot Wide Left
·
SEA 2·BUF 2
OT·2:29
Takeaway by Brandon Montour
SEA 2·BUF 2
OT·2:18
Tage Thompson Snap Shot Wide Left
·
SEA 2·BUF 2
OT·0:37
Matty Beniers faceoff won against Josh Norris
·
SEA 2·BUF 2
OT·0:37
Icing
SEA 2·BUF 2
OT·0:18
Takeaway by Alex Tuch
SEA 2·BUF 2
OT·0:00
Chandler Stephenson faceoff won against Sam Carrick
·
SEA 2·BUF 2
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
SEA 2·BUF 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
SEA 2·BUF 2
3rd·19:51
Sam Carrick faceoff won against Chandler Stephenson
·
SEA 2·BUF 2
3rd·19:51
Puck in Netting
SEA 2·BUF 2
3rd·19:49
Peyton Krebs shot blocked by Ryker Evans
·
SEA 2·BUF 2
3rd·19:44
Giveaway by Chandler Stephenson
SEA 2·BUF 2
3rd·19:39
Giveaway by Peyton Krebs
SEA 2·BUF 2

Betting line

BUF -1.5·O/U 6.5·SEA +164/BUF -198

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

uffalo Sabres held off Seattle Kraken, 3–2.

SEA +1.5 cashed (BUF won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Tage Thompson · BUF24:420.7461.2%60.8%24:42 TOI · 0.74 iXG · 61.2% CF · 60.8% xGF
Frederick Gaudreau · SEA18:120.5130.8%49.7%18:12 TOI · 0.51 iXG · 30.8% CF · 49.7% xGF
Berkly Catton · SEA17:480.4945.5%57.0%17:48 TOI · 0.49 iXG · 45.5% CF · 57.0% xGF
Jack Quinn · BUF17:240.4876.7%75.5%17:24 TOI · 0.48 iXG · 76.7% CF · 75.5% xGF
Matty Beniers · SEA21:480.4245.8%50.8%21:48 TOI · 0.42 iXG · 45.8% CF · 50.8% xGF
Jason Zucker · BUF14:240.4177.8%81.8%14:24 TOI · 0.41 iXG · 77.8% CF · 81.8% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen · BUF32–2.941+1.8732–2 · .941 SV% · +1.87 GSAx
Philipp Grubauer · SEA34–2.944+1.4634–2 · .944 SV% · +1.46 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

68.3%

ensemble · BUF favored

Elo Static
68.3%
P(BUF win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
68.3%
P(BUF win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
68.3%
P(BUF win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-198

Close price

-198

Open no-vig

63.7%

Close no-vig

63.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SEA at BUF?: The model favors BUF, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

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