Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BUF at BOS?

The model favors BUF, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+5BUF

BUF

50-23-9

BOS

45-27-10

NHLSun, Apr 26FinalSeriesBOS wins series 3-1VegasBOS -122

BUF · top performer

Alex Tuch

RW · #89

2Points

—

SOG

BOS · top performer

Sean Kuraly

C · #52

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BensonLW · #6	1	0	2	3	2	0	12	13:25
J. DoanRW · #91	1	1	1	1	2	0	0	12:51
J. GreenwayLW · #12	0	1	1	0	3	1	2	13:26
T. KozakC · #48	0	1	1	2	1	2	0	10:59
P. KrebsC · #19	1	1	2	3	2	1	4	14:32
B. MalenstynLW · #29	1	0	1	1	4	4	0	13:24
R. McLeodC · #71	0	1	1	1	0	1	0	16:56
N. OstlundC · #86	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	17:19
J. QuinnRW · #22	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	17:10
T. ThompsonC · #72	0	1	2	3	1	0	0	19:18
A. TuchRW · #89	1	1	2	6	0	3	0	18:35
J. ZuckerLW · #17	0	0	1	1	3	0	0	13:26

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. ByramD · #4	1	1	3	3	1	0	0	22:59
R. DahlinD · #26	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	21:12
O. PowerD · #25	0	1	2	1	1	0	0	20:14
M. SamuelssonD · #23	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	17:55
L. StanleyD · #64	0	0	1	3	0	3	0	16:21
C. TimminsD · #21	0	0	1	3	1	1	0	15:58

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. LyonG · #34	24	1	23	.958	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. ArvidssonLW · #71	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	3:13
M. GeekieC · #39	0	0	-2	1	2	0	0	16:15
T. JeannotLW · #84	0	0	-1	0	3	0	0	16:21
M. KastelicC · #47	0	1	0	0	5	0	0	14:34
M. KhusnutdinovC · #92	0	0	-1	0	7	0	0	12:46
S. KuralyC · #52	1	0	-1	2	4	2	0	15:59
E. LindholmC · #28	0	0	-3	2	3	0	0	15:41
F. MintenC · #93	0	0	-1	2	1	1	0	14:53
C. MittelstadtC · #11	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	14:37
D. PastrnakRW · #88	0	0	-2	1	2	1	4	19:15
L. ReichelLW · #75	0	0	-2	0	0	0	0	13:51
P. ZachaC · #18	0	0	-1	1	3	0	0	14:42

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AspirotD · #45	0	0	-4	0	2	1	0	18:06
J. HarrisD · #43	0	0	-2	0	1	3	0	13:37
H. LindholmD · #27	0	0	-1	4	0	1	2	21:38
C. McAvoyD · #73	0	0	-4	3	3	0	0	23:23
A. PeekeD · #26	0	1	1	3	2	2	0	22:32
N. ZadorovD · #91	0	0	0	3	4	1	17	19:20

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. SwaymanG · #1	29	6	23	.793	46:41
J. KorpisaloG · #70	6	0	6	1.000	13:19

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

BUF

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

BUF leads series 3-1

Apr 19

BOS3@

BUF4

Apr 21

BOS4@

BUF2

Apr 23

BUF3@

BOS1

Apr 26

BUF6@

BOS1today

Apr 28

BOS2@

BUF1

May 1

BUF4@

BOS1

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BUF+10250%

BOS-12255%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗

Line movement · 108 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BUF beat BOS 6-1. A. Tuch led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 6 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
BUF	4	0	2	6
BOS	0	0	1	1

Period scoring

BUF won 2 · BOS won 0

BUF

BOS

Play-by-play · 358 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
BUF 6·BOS 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
BUF 6·BOS 1
3rd·19:48
Marat Khusnutdinov hit Beck Malenstyn
·
BUF 6·BOS 1
3rd·19:29
Sean Kuraly shot blocked by Logan Stanley
·
BUF 6·BOS 1
3rd·19:29
Hampus Lindholm shot blocked by Beck Malenstyn
· ·
BUF 6·BOS 1
3rd·19:28
Hampus Lindholm Snap Shot saved by Alex Lyon
· ·
BUF 6·BOS 1
3rd·19:20
Sean Kuraly faceoff won against Noah Ostlund
·
BUF 6·BOS 1
3rd·19:20
Sean Kuraly Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Kastelic (1), Andrew Peeke (1)
· ·
BUF 6·BOS 1
3rd·19:17
Andrew Peeke Snap Shot saved by Alex Lyon
·
BUF 6·BOS 0
3rd·19:10
Hampus Lindholm Slap Shot saved by Alex Lyon
· ·
BUF 6·BOS 0
3rd·19:04
Giveaway by Jack Quinn
BUF 6·BOS 0
3rd·19:00
Giveaway by Andrew Peeke
BUF 6·BOS 0
3rd·18:55
Sean Kuraly faceoff won against Ryan McLeod
·
BUF 6·BOS 0
3rd·18:55
Goalie Stopped
BUF 6·BOS 0
3rd·18:53
Bowen Byram Slap Shot saved by Joonas Korpisalo
·
BUF 6·BOS 0
3rd·18:27
Marat Khusnutdinov faceoff won against Ryan McLeod
·
BUF 6·BOS 0
3rd·18:27
Off-side
BUF 6·BOS 0
3rd·18:04
Noah Ostlund shot blocked by Jonathan Aspirot
·
BUF 6·BOS 0
3rd·17:18
Alex Tuch Deflected saved by Joonas Korpisalo
·
BUF 6·BOS 0
3rd·17:12
Alex Tuch faceoff won against Fraser Minten
·
BUF 6·BOS 0
3rd·17:12
On-Ice Official
BUF 6·BOS 0
3rd·17:08
Fraser Minten faceoff won against Alex Tuch
·
BUF 6·BOS 0
3rd·17:08
Goalie Stopped
BUF 6·BOS 0
3rd·17:06
Rasmus Dahlin Wrist Shot saved by Joonas Korpisalo
·
BUF 6·BOS 0
3rd·16:43
Alex Tuch faceoff won against Sean Kuraly
·
BUF 6·BOS 0
3rd·16:43
Nikita Zadorov Game Misconduct
BUF 6·BOS 0
3rd·16:43
Zach Benson Misconduct
BUF 6·BOS 0
3rd·16:43
Nikita Zadorov Cross-checking against Rasmus Dahlin
·
BUF 6·BOS 0
3rd·16:43
David Pastrnak Roughing against Peyton Krebs
·
BUF 6·BOS 0
3rd·16:43
Peyton Krebs Roughing against David Pastrnak
·
BUF 6·BOS 0

Betting line

BOS -1.5·O/U 5.5·BUF +102/BOS -122

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

uffalo Sabres went into Boston Bruins and beat them, 6–1.

BUF +1.5 cashed (BOS lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.8%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
50.8%
P(BOS win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.8%
P(BOS win)
14%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.8%
P(BOS win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+102

Close price

+102

Open no-vig

47.4%

Close no-vig

47.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BUF at BOS?: The model favors BUF, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Buffalo SabresBoston Bruins

Elsewhere in the NHL