Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.0%
ensemble · MTL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MTL win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MTL win)
33%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MTL win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen
NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
BUF · top performer
Tage Thompson
C · #72
1
G
0
A
—
SOG
MTL · top performer
Zack Bolduc
RW · #76
1
G
0
A
—
SOG
NHL · Box score
BUF
50-23-9
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
MTL
48-24-10
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
10
PIM
6
Playoff series
Series tied 1-1
MTL2@BUF4MTL5@BUF1BUF@MTLtodayBUF@MTLupcomingMTL@BUFupcomingBUF@MTLupcomingMTL@BUFupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
MTL -1.5
Total
5.5
Defensive · -3.0 vs avg
Moneyline
BUF+11447%MTL-13557%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
5.5
0.0 since open
How it's going
MTL lead BUF 3-1 (9:00 - 2nd).
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| MTL | 1 | 2 | 3 |
Period scoring
BUF won 0 · MTL won 1
1
2
Play-by-play · 185 plays
Mike Matheson Snap Shot High and Wide Left
·
BUF 1·MTL 3
Nick Suzuki faceoff won against Josh Norris
·
BUF 1·MTL 3
Zachary Bolduc Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Joseph Veleno (1), Alexandre Carrier (2)
· ·
BUF 1·MTL 3
Giveaway by Logan Stanley
BUF 1·MTL 2
Jason Zucker Wrap-around Wide Left
·
BUF 1·MTL 2
Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Alex Newhook
·
BUF 1·MTL 2
Goalie Stopped
BUF 1·MTL 2
Jason Zucker Slap Shot Wide Right
·
BUF 1·MTL 2
Takeaway by Juraj Slafkovský
BUF 1·MTL 2
Cole Caufield hit Bowen Byram
·
BUF 1·MTL 2
Peyton Krebs hit Nick Suzuki
·
BUF 1·MTL 2
Phillip Danault faceoff won against Tage Thompson
·
BUF 1·MTL 2
Goalie Stopped
BUF 1·MTL 2
Kaiden Guhle hit Josh Doan
·
BUF 1·MTL 2
Josh Doan Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
BUF 1·MTL 2
Phillip Danault faceoff won against Josh Norris
·
BUF 1·MTL 2
Goalie Stopped
BUF 1·MTL 2
Josh Doan Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
BUF 1·MTL 2
Nick Suzuki faceoff won against Josh Norris
·
BUF 1·MTL 2
Goalie Stopped
BUF 1·MTL 2
Jake Evans Wrist Shot saved by Alex Lyon
·
BUF 1·MTL 2
Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Jake Evans
·
BUF 1·MTL 2
Icing
BUF 1·MTL 2
Zachary Bolduc hit Conor Timmins
·
BUF 1·MTL 2
Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Kirby Dach
·
BUF 1·MTL 2
Goalie Stopped
BUF 1·MTL 2
Josh Anderson Backhand saved by Alex Lyon
·
BUF 1·MTL 2
Phillip Danault Backhand saved by Alex Lyon
·
BUF 1·MTL 2
Tage Thompson faceoff won against Phillip Danault
·
BUF 1·MTL 2
Off-side
BUF 1·MTL 2
Team stats
BUF
Away
Stat
MTL
Home
13
Shots
23
0.0
PCT
33.3
10
PIM
6
12
Faceoffs W
22
10
Blocks
5
6
Giveaways
5
4
Takeaways
1
Betting line
MTL -1.5·O/U 5.5·BUF +114/MTL -135