Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DAL at BUF?

The model favors BUF, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1DAL

DAL

50-20-12

BUF

50-23-9

NHLWed, Apr 15FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasDAL -148

DAL · top performer

Esa Lindell

D · #23

2Points

—

SOG

BUF · top performer

Zach Benson

LW · #6

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final/SO

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. BackC · #10	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:36
J. BennLW · #14	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	13:46
M. BourqueC · #22	1	0	0	1	1	0	2	17:06
M. BuntingLW · #58	0	0	1	5	1	0	0	12:36
M. DucheneC · #95	0	0	-2	0	1	0	0	17:26
A. ErneLW · #73	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	13:23
R. FaksaC · #12	0	0	0	3	3	2	2	13:09
J. HryckowianC · #49	1	1	1	2	2	0	0	17:18
W. JohnstonC · #53	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	18:11
M. RantanenRW · #96	0	0	-2	1	1	0	0	18:33
J. RobertsonLW · #21	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	17:26
S. SteelC · #18	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	15:43

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. BichselD · #6	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	20:37
T. HarleyD · #55	0	0	-1	4	0	3	0	22:45
E. LindellD · #23	1	1	0	3	1	2	0	22:14
N. LundkvistD · #5	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	20:26
I. LyubushkinD · #46	0	1	0	1	1	2	2	15:39
T. MyersD · #57	0	0	0	3	1	3	0	21:30

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. OettingerG · #29	24	3	21	.875	65:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BensonLW · #6	1	1	2	3	0	1	0	24:22
J. DoanRW · #91	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	15:57
J. DunneC · #44	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	11:52
J. GreenwayLW · #12	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	16:03
T. KozakC · #48	0	1	0	0	4	1	0	13:34
P. KrebsC · #19	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	19:00
B. MalenstynLW · #29	0	0	-1	0	6	0	0	14:59
J. NorrisC · #9	1	0	1	2	0	3	0	16:55
T. PearsonLW · #70	0	1	0	0	2	1	0	17:04
J. QuinnRW · #22	0	0	-1	5	1	0	0	19:29
A. TuchRW · #89	1	0	1	1	0	2	0	20:36

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. ByramD · #4	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	19:35
M. KesselringD · #8	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	15:03
Z. MetsaD · #73	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	14:43
O. PowerD · #25	0	2	1	1	0	2	0	22:17
L. SchennD · #5	0	0	1	1	3	0	2	12:41
L. StanleyD · #64	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	20:16
C. TimminsD · #21	0	0	0	4	1	2	2	16:58

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. EllisG · #92	28	3	25	.893	65:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

DAL

Away

Stat

BUF

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jan 1

BUF4@

DAL1

Apr 15

DAL4@

BUF3today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

DAL-14860%

BUF+12445%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 66 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DAL beat BUF 4-3. E. Lindell led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	SO	T
DAL	1	2	0	0	1	4
BUF	1	2	0	0	0	3

Period scoring

DAL won 1 · BUF won 0

DAL

BUF

Play-by-play · 307 plays

period

event

player

SO·0:00
Game End
DAL 3·BUF 2
SO·0:00
End of OT
DAL 3·BUF 2
SO·0:00
End of Shootout
DAL 3·BUF 2
SO·0:00
Wyatt Johnston Goal Wrist Shot
DAL 3·BUF 2
SO·0:00
Josh Doan Backhand saved by Jake Oettinger
· ·
DAL 3·BUF 2
SO·0:00
Matt Duchene Goal Backhand
·
DAL 3·BUF 2
SO·0:00
Alex Tuch Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
DAL 3·BUF 2
SO·0:00
Mikko Rantanen Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
DAL 3·BUF 2
SO·0:00
Jack Quinn Goal Wrist Shot
DAL 3·BUF 2
SO·0:00
Jason Robertson Goal Snap Shot
DAL 3·BUF 2
SO·0:00
Josh Norris Goal Snap Shot
DAL 3·BUF 2
SO·0:00
Start of Shootout
DAL 3·BUF 2
OT·5:00
End of OT
DAL 3·BUF 3
OT·4:34
Takeaway by Esa Lindell
DAL 3·BUF 3
OT·4:17
Jack Quinn Slap Shot Wide Left
·
DAL 3·BUF 3
OT·4:06
Josh Norris faceoff won against Oskar Bäck
·
DAL 3·BUF 3
OT·4:06
Puck in Netting
DAL 3·BUF 3
OT·4:03
Josh Doan Wrist Shot High and Wide Left
·
DAL 3·BUF 3
OT·3:59
Bowen Byram Snap Shot Wide Right
·
DAL 3·BUF 3
OT·3:36
Radek Faksa faceoff won against Peyton Krebs
·
DAL 3·BUF 3
OT·3:36
Goalie Stopped
DAL 3·BUF 3
OT·3:34
Jack Quinn Wrist Shot saved by Jake Oettinger
·
DAL 3·BUF 3
OT·2:47
Takeaway by Lian Bichsel
DAL 3·BUF 3
OT·2:36
Josh Norris faceoff won against Radek Faksa
·
DAL 3·BUF 3
OT·2:36
Timeout - Home
DAL 3·BUF 3
OT·2:36
Mavrik Bourque Hooking against Alex Tuch
·
DAL 3·BUF 3
OT·2:34
Josh Norris Wrist Shot saved by Jake Oettinger
·
DAL 3·BUF 3
OT·2:32
Takeaway by Alex Tuch
DAL 3·BUF 3
OT·1:49
Thomas Harley shot blocked by Alex Tuch
·
DAL 3·BUF 3
OT·1:10
Peyton Krebs faceoff won against Mikko Rantanen
·
DAL 3·BUF 3

Betting line

DAL -1.5·O/U 6.5·DAL -148/BUF +124

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

allas Stars went into Buffalo Sabres and beat them, 4–3.

BUF +1.5 cashed (DAL won by 1). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

59.8%

ensemble · BUF favored

Elo Static
59.8%
P(BUF win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
59.8%
P(BUF win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
59.8%
P(BUF win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+124

Close price

+124

Open no-vig

42.8%

Close no-vig

42.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DAL at BUF?: The model favors BUF, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Dallas StarsBuffalo Sabres

Elsewhere in the NHL