Indiana Fever at Portland Fire
IND
9-7
POR
8-9
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Preview · WNBA
ndiana Fever visit Portland Fire Friday at 7/31 - 10:00 PM EDT. IND is 5-4 in their last 9.
The market hasn't shipped a line worth tagging key numbers on yet — check back closer to first pitch.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Team stats
IND
Away
Stat
POR
Home
46
FG %
45
Season series
Series tied 1-1
POR73@IND90IND84@POR100IND@PORtodayScouting report
IND @ POR
Tale of the tape
9-7
Record
8-9
#3
Conf rank
#5
+2.7
Pt diff
-5.9
L2
Streak
W1
5-5
Last 10
4-6
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
44.5%
ensemble · IND favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
31%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(POR win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
POR vs IND.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
120
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Kelsey MitchellIND19.9± 5.4medium
- Caitlin ClarkIND19.8± 9.1medium
- Aliyah BostonIND17.2± 7.6medium
Rebounds
- Aliyah BostonIND8.6± 2.3medium
- Emily EngstlerPOR5.2± 3.4medium
- Monique BillingsIND4.4± 3.2medium
Assists
- Caitlin ClarkIND7.6± 3.2medium
- Carla LeitePOR5.9± 3.6medium
- Teja OblakPOR3.4± 2.5low
Blocks
- Emily EngstlerPOR1.9± 0.9medium
- Aliyah BostonIND1.4± 1.6medium
- Makayla TimpsonIND0.9± 1.1medium
Steals
- Bridget CarletonPOR1.4± 1.2medium
- Emily EngstlerPOR1.3± 1.4medium
- Aliyah BostonIND0.9± 0.9medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
IND
league avg
POR
46.2%
FG%
44.6
44.6%
34.3%
3PT %
33.4
34.1%
92.2
PPG
85.7
82.2
20.9
Assists / G
18.0
19.8
15.3
Turnovers / G
13.0
▶14.8