Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in IND at POR?

The model favors POR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+14IND

IND

19-10

11298

POR

11-18

WNBAFri, Jul 31FinalSeriesIND wins series 2-1VegasIND -7.5

IND · top performer

Caitlin Clark

G · #22

27.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

POR · top performer

Bridget Carleton

F · #6

19.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowIND ↔ POR

Biggest swing: 7pp · 2nd Quarter · 7:54

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. BillingsF · #25	29	15	5-9	—	5-6	+17	7	1
A. BostonC · #7	30	14	5-10	0-2	4-4	+3	9	6
K. MitchellG · #0	36	26	9-21	4-12	4-4	+15	0	2
L. HullG · #10	14	3	1-3	1-3	—	-5	0	0
C. ClarkG · #22	34	26	5-9	2-5	14-17	+23	10	10
Bench
M. TimpsonF · #21	20	15	7-8	—	1-1	+6	3	0
G. VanSlootenF · #14	0	0	—	—	—	-2	0	0
S. CunninghamG · #8	27	13	4-6	3-5	2-2	+18	0	3
T. HarrisG · #52	10	0	0-2	0-2	—	-5	1	2
R. JohnsonG · #3	1	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
Team		112	36-68	10-29	30-34		30	24
DNP: M. Hines-Allen, D. Dantas

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. CarletonF · #6	33	26	9-14	7-11	1-2	-10	3	2
E. EngstlerF · #21	28	10	4-7	2-5	—	-15	2	5
N. PuochF · #13	18	10	5-8	0-1	—	-8	2	0
M. DiLeoC · #17	25	5	2-8	1-3	—	-13	2	0
C. LeiteG · #0	31	20	6-9	—	8-9	-8	2	12
Bench
F. BuhnerF · #20	12	0	0-2	—	—	+1	3	2
S. WilliamsC · #25	15	10	5-6	—	0-1	-1	4	0
K. SamuelsonG · #44	19	13	3-8	3-8	4-4	-2	4	2
H. WinterburnG · #77	10	1	0-2	—	1-2	-8	1	0
T. OblakG · #7	9	3	1-3	1-3	—	-6	2	3
Team		98	35-67	14-31	14-18		25	26
DNP: L. Geiselsoder, S. Barker

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

IND

Away

Stat

POR

Home

36-68

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

35-67

FG %

10-29

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

14-31

30-34

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

14-18

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

IND wins series 2-1

May 20

POR73@

IND90

May 31

IND84@

POR100

Aug 1

IND112@

POR98today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

IND -7.5

Half-pt above key 7

2.0pt· 6.2h

Total

188.5

High-scoring · +23.5 vs avg

2.0pt· 6.2h

Moneyline

IND-32576%

POR+26028%

46· 6.2h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet IND -7.5↗SpreadBet IND -7.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

7.5

+1.0 since open

Total

188.5

+5.0 since open

How it ended

IND beat POR 112-98. C. Clark stuffed the line with 26 PTS, 10 REB, and 10 AST. IND outscored the other side 34-25 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

POR vs IND

Starters vs bench

production by unit

INDstarters 75% of pts

Starters(5)

84 PTS · 26 REB · 19 AST

GS 74

Bench(5)

28 PTS · 4 REB · 5 AST

GS 27

PORstarters 72% of pts

Starters(5)

71 PTS · 11 REB · 19 AST

GS 54

Bench(5)

27 PTS · 14 REB · 7 AST

GS 19

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

POR2nd Quarter · 8:22 · 30-33

+6pp→ 32% WP

Bridget Carleton · makes 23-foot three point jumper (Carla Leite assists)

POR2nd Quarter · 7:54 · 30-36

+7pp→ 42% WP

Megan DiLeo · makes 22-foot three point jumper (Emily Engstler assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
IND	27	29	34	22	112
POR	25	22	25	26	98

Period scoring

IND won 3 · POR won 1

Clark 9

Engstler 8

Clark 8

Carleton 8

Billings 11

Samuelson 8

Mitchell 8

Carleton 11

IND

POR

Shooting comparison

IND

POR

53%

36-68

52%

35-67

34%

10-29

3PT

45%

14-31

88%

30-34

78%

14-18

Play-by-play · 432 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
IND 112·POR 98
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
IND 112·POR 98
Q4·15.0
Carla Leite makes layup
IND 112·POR 98
Q4·16.6
Carla Leite offensive rebound
IND 112·POR 96
Q4·19.6
Karlie Samuelson misses 22-foot three point jumper
IND 112·POR 96
Q4·22.6
Nyadiew Puoch enters the game for Bridget Carleton
·
IND 112·POR 96
Q4·22.6
Grace VanSlooten enters the game for Caitlin Clark
·
IND 112·POR 96
Q4·33.8
Makayla Timpson makes 5-foot layup (Caitlin Clark assists)
·
IND 112·POR 96
Q4·52.4
Raven Johnson enters the game for Sophie Cunningham
·
IND 110·POR 96
Q4·52.4
Tyasha Harris enters the game for Kelsey Mitchell
·
IND 110·POR 96
Q4·52.4
Carla Leite traveling turnover
IND 110·POR 96
Q4·59.0
Caitlin Clark makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 110·POR 96
Q4·59.0
Makayla Timpson enters the game for Aliyah Boston
·
IND 109·POR 96
Q4·59.0
Caitlin Clark makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 109·POR 96
Q4·59.0
Bridget Carleton personal foul
IND 108·POR 96
Q4·1:00
Caitlin Clark enters the game for Makayla Timpson
·
IND 108·POR 96
Q4·1:00
Fever Full timeout
IND 108·POR 96
Q4·1:00
Bridget Carleton makes 23-foot turnaround jump shot (Carla Leite assists)
·
IND 108·POR 96
Q4·1:03
Fire Reset Timeout
IND 108·POR 93
Q4·1:03
Aliyah Boston makes free throw 2 of 2
IND 108·POR 93
Q4·1:03
Lexie Hull enters the game for Caitlin Clark
·
IND 107·POR 93
Q4·1:03
Aliyah Boston makes free throw 1 of 2
IND 107·POR 93
Q4·1:03
Megan DiLeo personal foul
IND 106·POR 93
Q4·1:05
Caitlin Clark enters the game for Lexie Hull
·
IND 106·POR 93
Q4·1:05
Fever Reset Timeout
IND 106·POR 93
Q4·1:13
Emily Engstler lost ball turnover (Makayla Timpson steals)
·
IND 106·POR 93
Q4·1:20
Karlie Samuelson offensive rebound
IND 106·POR 93
Q4·1:23
Karlie Samuelson misses 23-foot three point jumper
IND 106·POR 93
Q4·1:25
Lexie Hull enters the game for Caitlin Clark
·
IND 106·POR 93
Q4·1:25
Fire Full timeout
IND 106·POR 93

Betting line

IND -7.5·O/U 188.5·IND -325/POR +260

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

ndiana Fever went into Portland Fire and beat them, 112–98.

IND -7.5 cashed (won by 14). Total cleared the 188.5 OVER by 21.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

IND

POR

eFG%

shooting

60.3%

62.7%

TOV%

ball control

13.5%

21.1%

OREB%

offensive glass

30.8%

24.1%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

44.1%

20.9%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Caitlin ClarkIND · G
USG%.30497
Megan DiLeoPOR · C
TS%.67497
Aliyah BostonIND · C
DRB%.28196
Carla LeitePOR · G
USG%.28893
Sophie CunninghamIND · G
eFG%.59688

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

30.0%

ensemble · IND favored

Elo Static
42.6%
P(POR win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
43.6%
P(POR win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
42.2%
P(POR win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.59 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.73

CLV pp

Open price

+268

Close price

+258

Open no-vig

26.0%

Close no-vig

26.7%

Market came to the model · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in IND at POR?: The model favors POR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+8.4pp

best edge · POR · DraftKings

IND

no live price

POR

★ best

+340DraftKings

edge +8.4pp · implied 21.4%

Book	IND	POR	Best edge
DraftKings	-500	+340★	+8.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

POR vs IND.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 100 high confidence

Points

Kelsey MitchellIND
26.2± 4.8high
Caitlin ClarkIND
21.2± 10.9high
Carla LeitePOR
15.9± 4.1high

Rebounds

Aliyah BostonIND
7.3± 3.3high
Monique BillingsIND
5.8± 3.2high
Emily EngstlerPOR
5.5± 3.4high

Assists

Caitlin ClarkIND
7.5± 2.6high
Carla LeitePOR
6.7± 3.1high
Jordan HarrisonPOR
3.3± 1.1low

Blocks

Emily EngstlerPOR
1.1± 0.7high
Makayla TimpsonIND
1.0± 1.4high
Aliyah BostonIND
0.8± 0.8high

Steals

Emily EngstlerPOR
1.8± 0.9high
Aliyah BostonIND
1.5± 1.6high
Bridget CarletonPOR
1.5± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Indiana FeverPortland Fire

Elsewhere in the WNBA

Data via ESPN · wehoop