Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.0%
ensemble · MTL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MTL win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MTL win)
33%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MTL win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen
NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 27 skaters with EDGEBUF · top performer

Josh Doan
RW · #91
0
G
1
A
—
SOG
MTL · top performer

Cole Caufield
RW · #13
1
G
0
A
—
SOG
NHL · Box score


BUF
50-23-9
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
MTL
48-24-10
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
10
PIM
4
Playoff series
MTL leads series 2-1
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
MTL -1.5
Total
6.5
Defensive · -2.0 vs avg
Moneyline
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
How it's going
MTL lead BUF 2-1 (16:57 - 2nd).
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| MTL | 2 | 0 | 2 |
Team stats
BUF
Away
Stat
MTL
Home
12
Shots
8
0.0
PCT
25.0
10
PIM
4
13
Faceoffs W
10
9
Blocks
4
7
Giveaways
5
4
Takeaways
1
Betting line
MTL -1.5·O/U 6.5·BUF +124/MTL -148
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
6.5
0.0 since open
Period scoring
BUF won 0 · MTL won 1
1
2
Play-by-play · 133 plays
Nick Suzuki faceoff won against Jordan Greenway
·
BUF 1·MTL 2
Bowen Byram High-sticking against Josh Anderson
·
BUF 1·MTL 2
Owen Power hit Phillip Danault
·
BUF 1·MTL 2
Tage Thompson shot blocked by Mike Matheson
·
BUF 1·MTL 2
Giveaway by Mike Matheson
BUF 1·MTL 2
Giveaway by Josh Doan
BUF 1·MTL 2
Noah Dobson shot blocked by Rasmus Dahlin
·
BUF 1·MTL 2
Noah Dobson shot blocked by Josh Norris
·
BUF 1·MTL 2
Juraj Slafkovský hit Rasmus Dahlin
·
BUF 1·MTL 2
Josh Norris faceoff won against Nick Suzuki
·
BUF 1·MTL 2
Start of 2nd Period
BUF 1·MTL 2
End of 1st Period
BUF 1·MTL 2
Alexandre Texier hit Zach Benson
·
BUF 1·MTL 2
Phillip Danault faceoff won against Josh Norris
·
BUF 1·MTL 2
Cole Caufield Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (2), Lane Hutson (8)
· ·
BUF 1·MTL 2
Juraj Slafkovský shot blocked by Conor Timmins
·
BUF 1·MTL 1
Lane Hutson shot blocked by Conor Timmins
·
BUF 1·MTL 1
Nick Suzuki shot blocked by Conor Timmins
·
BUF 1·MTL 1
Juraj Slafkovský shot blocked by Mattias Samuelsson
·
BUF 1·MTL 1
Nick Suzuki faceoff won against Jordan Greenway
·
BUF 1·MTL 1
Tage Thompson Cross-checking against Kaiden Guhle
·
BUF 1·MTL 1
Puck in Netting
BUF 1·MTL 1
Konsta Helenius shot blocked by Alexandre Carrier
·
BUF 1·MTL 1
Mike Matheson hit Owen Power
·
BUF 1·MTL 1
Takeaway by Ryan McLeod
BUF 1·MTL 1
Takeaway by Cole Caufield
BUF 1·MTL 1
Cole Caufield Snap Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
·
BUF 1·MTL 1
Alex Tuch Snap Shot Wide Left
·
BUF 1·MTL 1
Josh Norris faceoff won against Jake Evans
·
BUF 1·MTL 1
Zachary Bolduc Roughing against Peyton Krebs
·
BUF 1·MTL 1