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    BUF 1@MTL 2
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THE ONE Analytics
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BUF logo
BUF
1
Live16:57 - 2nd
MTL logo
MTL
2
Updated 8:29 PM ET
16:57 - 2ND+1MTL↑
BUF

BUF

50-23-9

1
2
MTL

MTL

48-24-10

Ensemble breakdown
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Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.0%

ensemble · MTL favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(MTL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(MTL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(MTL win)

    33%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights are recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 54-34
60%Last 30 · 253-167
Receipts →

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Ryan McLeodBUF · C
    BURSTS5399+
  • Arber XhekajMTL · D
    SHOT MPH98.598
  • Lane HutsonMTL · D
    DIST MI38.498
  • Josh AndersonMTL · RW
    SHOT MPH92.696
  • Cole CaufieldMTL · RW
    DIST MI29.296
NHL·Tue, May 12·16:57 - 2nd/Seriestied 2-2/VegasMTL -148
Updated 0s ago

BUF · top performer

BUF
Josh Doan

Josh Doan

RW · #91

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

MTL · top performer

MTL
Cole Caufield

Cole Caufield

RW · #13

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Buffalo Sabres at Montreal Canadiens · live

NHL · Box score

16:57 - 2nd
BUF50-23-9
1
2
MTL48-24-10
BUF50-23-9·MTL48-24-10
BUF

BUF

50-23-9

1
 Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
 Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
 Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
 GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
MTL

MTL

48-24-10

2
 Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
 Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
 Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
 GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

10

PIM

4

Playoff series

MTL leads series 2-1

May 6MTLMTL2@BUFBUF4
May 8MTLMTL5@BUFBUF1
May 10BUFBUF2@MTLMTL6
May 12BUFBUF@MTLMTLtoday
May 14MTLMTL@BUFBUFupcoming
May 16BUFBUF@MTLMTLupcoming
May 18MTLMTL@BUFBUFupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MTL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BUFBUF+12445%
MTLMTL-14860%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗

How it's going

MTL lead BUF 2-1 (16:57 - 2nd).

Linescore (quarters)

Team12T
BUF101
MTL202

Team stats

BUF

Away

Stat

MTL

Home

12

Shots

8

0.0

PCT

25.0

10

PIM

4

13

Faceoffs W

10

9

Blocks

4

7

Giveaways

5

4

Takeaways

1

Betting line

MTL -1.5·O/U 6.5·BUF +124/MTL -148

DraftKings · via ESPN

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

Period scoring

BUF won 0 · MTL won 1

1
2

1

0
0

2

BUF
MTL

Play-by-play · 133 plays

period
event
player
  1. 2nd·2:23

    Nick Suzuki faceoff won against Jordan Greenway

    ·

    BUF 1·MTL 2

  2. 2nd·2:23

    Bowen Byram High-sticking against Josh Anderson

    ·

    BUF 1·MTL 2

  3. 2nd·1:34

    Owen Power hit Phillip Danault

    ·

    BUF 1·MTL 2

  4. 2nd·1:24

    Tage Thompson shot blocked by Mike Matheson

    ·

    BUF 1·MTL 2

  5. 2nd·1:06

    Giveaway by Mike Matheson

    BUF 1·MTL 2

  6. 2nd·0:41

    Giveaway by Josh Doan

    BUF 1·MTL 2

  7. 2nd·0:30

    Noah Dobson shot blocked by Rasmus Dahlin

    ·

    BUF 1·MTL 2

  8. 2nd·0:30

    Noah Dobson shot blocked by Josh Norris

    ·

    BUF 1·MTL 2

  9. 2nd·0:04

    Juraj Slafkovský hit Rasmus Dahlin

    ·

    BUF 1·MTL 2

  10. 2nd·0:00

    Josh Norris faceoff won against Nick Suzuki

    ·

    BUF 1·MTL 2

  11. 2nd·0:00

    Start of 2nd Period

    BUF 1·MTL 2

  12. 1st·20:00

    End of 1st Period

    BUF 1·MTL 2

  13. 1st·19:59

    Alexandre Texier hit Zach Benson

    ·

    BUF 1·MTL 2

  14. 1st·19:47

    Phillip Danault faceoff won against Josh Norris

    ·

    BUF 1·MTL 2

  15. 1st·19:47

    Cole Caufield Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovský (2), Lane Hutson (8)

    · ·

    BUF 1·MTL 2

  16. 1st·19:45

    Juraj Slafkovský shot blocked by Conor Timmins

    ·

    BUF 1·MTL 1

  17. 1st·19:44

    Lane Hutson shot blocked by Conor Timmins

    ·

    BUF 1·MTL 1

  18. 1st·19:41

    Nick Suzuki shot blocked by Conor Timmins

    ·

    BUF 1·MTL 1

  19. 1st·19:25

    Juraj Slafkovský shot blocked by Mattias Samuelsson

    ·

    BUF 1·MTL 1

  20. 1st·19:19

    Nick Suzuki faceoff won against Jordan Greenway

    ·

    BUF 1·MTL 1

  21. 1st·19:19

    Tage Thompson Cross-checking against Kaiden Guhle

    ·

    BUF 1·MTL 1

  22. 1st·19:19

    Puck in Netting

    BUF 1·MTL 1

  23. 1st·19:18

    Konsta Helenius shot blocked by Alexandre Carrier

    ·

    BUF 1·MTL 1

  24. 1st·18:59

    Mike Matheson hit Owen Power

    ·

    BUF 1·MTL 1

  25. 1st·18:40

    Takeaway by Ryan McLeod

    BUF 1·MTL 1

  26. 1st·18:33

    Takeaway by Cole Caufield

    BUF 1·MTL 1

  27. 1st·18:26

    Cole Caufield Snap Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

    ·

    BUF 1·MTL 1

  28. 1st·17:52

    Alex Tuch Snap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    BUF 1·MTL 1

  29. 1st·17:25

    Josh Norris faceoff won against Jake Evans

    ·

    BUF 1·MTL 1

  30. 1st·17:25

    Zachary Bolduc Roughing against Peyton Krebs

    ·

    BUF 1·MTL 1