Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BOS at BUF?

The model favors BUF, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1BUF

BOS

45-27-10

BUF

50-23-9

NHLSun, Apr 19FinalSeriesBOS wins series 3-1VegasBUF -166

BOS · top performer

David Pastrnak

RW · #88

3Points

—

SOG

BUF · top performer

Tage Thompson

C · #72

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. ArvidssonLW · #71	0	0	-3	2	0	2	0	12:45
M. GeekieC · #39	1	2	1	2	1	0	0	19:16
J. HagensC · #44	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	11:02
T. JeannotLW · #84	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	8:21
M. KastelicC · #47	0	0	0	0	5	1	2	10:51
M. KhusnutdinovC · #92	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	14:13
S. KuralyC · #52	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	13:16
E. LindholmC · #28	1	0	1	2	4	0	0	19:18
F. MintenC · #93	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	16:07
C. MittelstadtC · #11	0	0	-3	1	0	0	0	12:19
D. PastrnakRW · #88	1	2	0	4	4	1	2	21:15
P. ZachaC · #18	0	1	-3	1	1	1	2	17:02

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AspirotD · #45	0	0	-1	1	1	3	0	16:09
H. LindholmD · #27	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	21:06
M. LohreiD · #6	0	0	-1	0	2	2	0	16:08
C. McAvoyD · #73	0	0	-2	2	1	0	0	24:18
A. PeekeD · #26	0	0	1	0	3	1	2	19:03
N. ZadorovD · #91	0	1	0	0	6	1	2	20:42

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. SwaymanG · #1	37	3	34	.919	58:49

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BensonLW · #6	0	0	0	3	3	0	2	15:28
J. DoanRW · #91	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	16:14
J. DunneC · #44	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	8:20
J. GreenwayLW · #12	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	9:38
P. KrebsC · #19	0	1	3	0	2	0	0	16:10
B. MalenstynLW · #29	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	11:39
R. McLeodC · #71	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	17:38
J. NorrisC · #9	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	16:32
J. QuinnRW · #22	0	1	0	2	3	0	0	14:37
T. ThompsonC · #72	2	1	3	7	3	0	2	20:01
A. TuchRW · #89	1	1	2	4	10	1	0	21:40
J. ZuckerLW · #17	0	0	-1	3	3	0	2	15:10

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. ByramD · #4	0	0	1	2	1	1	0	22:50
R. DahlinD · #26	0	0	1	2	2	1	2	24:05
O. PowerD · #25	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	17:55
M. SamuelssonD · #23	1	0	1	2	9	2	0	22:20
L. StanleyD · #64	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	11:51
C. TimminsD · #21	0	0	0	4	1	2	2	13:48

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
U. LuukkonenG · #1	20	3	17	.850	59:53

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

BUF

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

BUF leads series 1-0

Apr 19

BOS3@

BUF4today

Apr 21

BOS4@

BUF2

Apr 23

BUF3@

BOS1

Apr 26

BUF6@

BOS1

Apr 28

BOS2@

BUF1

May 1

BUF4@

BOS1

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BUF -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BOS+14042%

BUF-16662%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗

Line movement · 61 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BUF beat BOS 4-3. T. Thompson led the way — 2 G · 1 A · 7 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
BOS	1	0	2	3
BUF	0	0	4	4

Period scoring

BOS won 1 · BUF won 1

BOS

BUF

Play-by-play · 370 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
BOS 3·BUF 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
BOS 3·BUF 4
3rd·19:52
Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Elias Lindholm
· ·
BOS 3·BUF 4
3rd·19:52
David Pastrnak Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Pavel Zacha (1), Morgan Geekie (2)
· ·
BOS 3·BUF 4
3rd·19:41
Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Elias Lindholm
· ·
BOS 2·BUF 4
3rd·19:41
Tage Thompson Tripping against Hampus Lindholm
· ·
BOS 2·BUF 4
3rd·19:22
Fraser Minten faceoff won against Tage Thompson
·
BOS 2·BUF 4
3rd·19:22
Icing
BOS 2·BUF 4
3rd·19:09
Josh Doan Wrist Shot High and Wide Right
BOS 2·BUF 4
3rd·19:03
Rasmus Dahlin hit Fraser Minten
·
BOS 2·BUF 4
3rd·18:48
Josh Norris faceoff won against Fraser Minten
·
BOS 2·BUF 4
3rd·18:48
Alex Tuch Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (1), Owen Power (1)
· ·
BOS 2·BUF 4
3rd·18:43
Nikita Zadorov hit Tage Thompson
·
BOS 2·BUF 3
3rd·18:24
Bowen Byram hit Mason Lohrei
·
BOS 2·BUF 3
3rd·17:39
Elias Lindholm hit Beck Malenstyn
· ·
BOS 2·BUF 3
3rd·17:05
Marat Khusnutdinov hit Peyton Krebs
·
BOS 2·BUF 3
3rd·16:52
Nikita Zadorov Wrist Shot High and Wide Right
·
BOS 2·BUF 3
3rd·16:48
Takeaway by Fraser Minten
BOS 2·BUF 3
3rd·16:36
Fraser Minten faceoff won against Tage Thompson
·
BOS 2·BUF 3
3rd·16:36
Mattias Samuelsson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Quinn (1)
·
BOS 2·BUF 3
3rd·16:14
Mattias Samuelsson hit Charlie McAvoy
·
BOS 2·BUF 2
3rd·16:12
Pavel Zacha faceoff won against Ryan McLeod
·
BOS 2·BUF 2
3rd·16:12
Sean Kuraly Roughing against Conor Timmins
·
BOS 2·BUF 2
3rd·16:12
Mark Kastelic Roughing against Zach Benson
·
BOS 2·BUF 2
3rd·16:12
Conor Timmins Roughing against Sean Kuraly
·
BOS 2·BUF 2
3rd·16:12
Zach Benson Roughing against Mark Kastelic
·
BOS 2·BUF 2
3rd·16:12
Goalie Stopped
BOS 2·BUF 2
3rd·16:09
Charlie McAvoy Snap Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
·
BOS 2·BUF 2
3rd·16:06
Tanner Jeannot hit Logan Stanley
·
BOS 2·BUF 2
3rd·15:52
Mark Kastelic hit Zach Benson
·
BOS 2·BUF 2

Betting line

BUF -1.5·O/U 6.5·BOS +140/BUF -166

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

uffalo Sabres held off Boston Bruins, 4–3.

BOS +1.5 cashed (BUF won by 1). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.3%

ensemble · BUF favored

Elo Static
62.7%
P(BUF win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
62.7%
P(BUF win)
16%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
62.7%
P(BUF win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-166

Close price

-166

Open no-vig

60.0%

Close no-vig

60.0%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BOS at BUF?: The model favors BUF, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Boston BruinsBuffalo Sabres

Elsewhere in the NHL