NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1BUF

BOS

45-27-10

BUF

50-23-9

NHLSun, Apr 19FinalSeriesBOS wins series 3-1VegasBUF -166

Recap · NHL

uffalo Sabres held off Boston Bruins, 4–3.

BOS +1.5 cashed (BUF won by 1). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BOS · top performer

David Pastrnak

RW · #88

3Points

—

SOG

BUF · top performer

Tage Thompson

C · #72

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. ArvidssonLW · #71	0	0	-3	2	0	2	0	12:45
M. GeekieC · #39	1	2	1	2	1	0	0	19:16
J. HagensC · #44	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	11:02
T. JeannotLW · #84	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	8:21
M. KastelicC · #47	0	0	0	0	5	1	2	10:51
M. KhusnutdinovC · #92	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	14:13
S. KuralyC · #52	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	13:16
E. LindholmC · #28	1	0	1	2	4	0	0	19:18
F. MintenC · #93	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	16:07
C. MittelstadtC · #11	0	0	-3	1	0	0	0	12:19
D. PastrnakRW · #88	1	2	0	4	4	1	2	21:15
P. ZachaC · #18	0	1	-3	1	1	1	2	17:02

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AspirotD · #45	0	0	-1	1	1	3	0	16:09
H. LindholmD · #27	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	21:06
M. LohreiD · #6	0	0	-1	0	2	2	0	16:08
C. McAvoyD · #73	0	0	-2	2	1	0	0	24:18
A. PeekeD · #26	0	0	1	0	3	1	2	19:03
N. ZadorovD · #91	0	1	0	0	6	1	2	20:42

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. SwaymanG · #1	37	3	34	.919	58:49

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BensonLW · #6	0	0	0	3	3	0	2	15:28
J. DoanRW · #91	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	16:14
J. DunneC · #44	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	8:20
J. GreenwayLW · #12	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	9:38
P. KrebsC · #19	0	1	3	0	2	0	0	16:10
B. MalenstynLW · #29	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	11:39
R. McLeodC · #71	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	17:38
J. NorrisC · #9	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	16:32
J. QuinnRW · #22	0	1	0	2	3	0	0	14:37
T. ThompsonC · #72	2	1	3	7	3	0	2	20:01
A. TuchRW · #89	1	1	2	4	10	1	0	21:40
J. ZuckerLW · #17	0	0	-1	3	3	0	2	15:10

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. ByramD · #4	0	0	1	2	1	1	0	22:50
R. DahlinD · #26	0	0	1	2	2	1	2	24:05
O. PowerD · #25	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	17:55
M. SamuelssonD · #23	1	0	1	2	9	2	0	22:20
L. StanleyD · #64	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	11:51
C. TimminsD · #21	0	0	0	4	1	2	2	13:48

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
U. LuukkonenG · #1	20	3	17	.850	59:53

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Playoff series

BUF leads series 1-0

Apr 19

BOS3@

BUF4today

Apr 21

BOS4@

BUF2

Apr 23

BUF3@

BOS1

Apr 26

BUF6@

BOS1

Apr 28

BOS2@

BUF1

May 1

BUF4@

BOS1

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BUF -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BOS+14042%

BUF-16662%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗

Line movement · 43 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

BOS

D. Pastrnak

Top skater

1 G · 2 A · 4 SOG

J. Swayman

Goaltender

34 SV · 3 GA · .919

BUF

T. Thompson

Top skater

2 G · 1 A · 7 SOG

U. Luukkonen

Goaltender

17 SV · 3 GA · .850

How it ended

BUF beat BOS 4-3. T. Thompson led the way — 2 G · 1 A · 7 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
BOS	1	0	2	3
BUF	0	0	4	4

Period scoring

BOS won 1 · BUF won 1

BOS

BUF

Play-by-play · 370 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
BOS 3·BUF 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
BOS 3·BUF 4
3rd·19:52
Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Elias Lindholm
· ·
BOS 3·BUF 4
3rd·19:52
David Pastrnak Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Pavel Zacha (1), Morgan Geekie (2)
· ·
BOS 3·BUF 4
3rd·19:41
Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Elias Lindholm
· ·
BOS 2·BUF 4
3rd·19:41
Tage Thompson Tripping against Hampus Lindholm
· ·
BOS 2·BUF 4
3rd·19:22
Fraser Minten faceoff won against Tage Thompson
·
BOS 2·BUF 4
3rd·19:22
Icing
BOS 2·BUF 4
3rd·19:09
Josh Doan Wrist Shot High and Wide Right
BOS 2·BUF 4
3rd·19:03
Rasmus Dahlin hit Fraser Minten
·
BOS 2·BUF 4
3rd·18:48
Josh Norris faceoff won against Fraser Minten
·
BOS 2·BUF 4
3rd·18:48
Alex Tuch Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Tage Thompson (1), Owen Power (1)
· ·
BOS 2·BUF 4
3rd·18:43
Nikita Zadorov hit Tage Thompson
·
BOS 2·BUF 3
3rd·18:24
Bowen Byram hit Mason Lohrei
·
BOS 2·BUF 3
3rd·17:39
Elias Lindholm hit Beck Malenstyn
· ·
BOS 2·BUF 3
3rd·17:05
Marat Khusnutdinov hit Peyton Krebs
·
BOS 2·BUF 3
3rd·16:52
Nikita Zadorov Wrist Shot High and Wide Right
·
BOS 2·BUF 3
3rd·16:48
Takeaway by Fraser Minten
BOS 2·BUF 3
3rd·16:36
Fraser Minten faceoff won against Tage Thompson
·
BOS 2·BUF 3
3rd·16:36
Mattias Samuelsson Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Quinn (1)
·
BOS 2·BUF 3
3rd·16:14
Mattias Samuelsson hit Charlie McAvoy
·
BOS 2·BUF 2
3rd·16:12
Pavel Zacha faceoff won against Ryan McLeod
·
BOS 2·BUF 2
3rd·16:12
Sean Kuraly Roughing against Conor Timmins
·
BOS 2·BUF 2
3rd·16:12
Mark Kastelic Roughing against Zach Benson
·
BOS 2·BUF 2
3rd·16:12
Conor Timmins Roughing against Sean Kuraly
·
BOS 2·BUF 2
3rd·16:12
Zach Benson Roughing against Mark Kastelic
·
BOS 2·BUF 2
3rd·16:12
Goalie Stopped
BOS 2·BUF 2
3rd·16:09
Charlie McAvoy Snap Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
·
BOS 2·BUF 2
3rd·16:06
Tanner Jeannot hit Logan Stanley
·
BOS 2·BUF 2
3rd·15:52
Mark Kastelic hit Zach Benson
·
BOS 2·BUF 2

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

BUF

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

BUF -1.5·O/U 6.5·BOS +140/BUF -166

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE

Ryan McLeodBUF · C
BURSTS7298
Josh NorrisBUF · C
xGF%6397
Josh DoanBUF · RW
iXG26.793
Marat KhusnutdinovBOS · C
SKATE MPH23.091
Rasmus DahlinBUF · D
SHOT MPH96.091

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.4%

ensemble · BUF favored

Elo Static
62.7%
P(BUF win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
62.7%
P(BUF win)
16%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
62.7%
P(BUF win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-166

Close price

-166

Open no-vig

60.0%

Close no-vig

60.0%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit