Free during beta —to track favorites + alerts
FINAL+3OTT
BUF

BUF

46-22-8

14
OTT

OTT

39-26-10

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Apr 2FinalSeriesBUF wins series 2-1VegasOTT -120

Recap · NHL

ttawa Senators held off Buffalo Sabres, 4–1.

OTT -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BUF · top performer

BUF
Peyton Krebs

Peyton Krebs

C · #19

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

OTT · top performer

OTT
Ridly Greig

Ridly Greig

C · #71

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Buffalo Sabres at Ottawa Senators · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
1
4
BUF46-22-8OTT39-26-10
BUF

BUF

46-22-8

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
OTT

OTT

39-26-10

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

19

PIM

9

Season series

BUF wins series 2-1

Oct 15OTTOTT4@BUFBUF8
Dec 24BUFBUF3@OTTOTT2
Apr 2BUFBUF1@OTTOTT4today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OTT -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BUFBUF+10050%
OTTOTT-12055%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

OTT beat BUF 4-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
BUF0101
OTT0134

Period scoring

BUF won 0 · OTT won 1

0
0

1

1
1

2

0
3

3

BUF
OTT

Play-by-play · 308 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    BUF 1·OTT 4

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    BUF 1·OTT 4

  3. 3rd·18:42

    Josh Dunne faceoff won against Lars Eller

    ·

    BUF 1·OTT 4

  4. 3rd·18:42

    Josh Norris Abuse of Officials

    BUF 1·OTT 4

  5. 3rd·18:42

    Shane Pinto Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: none

    BUF 1·OTT 4

  6. 3rd·18:19

    Zach Benson shot blocked by Ridly Greig

    ·

    BUF 1·OTT 3

  7. 3rd·18:02

    Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Ridly Greig

    ·

    BUF 1·OTT 3

  8. 3rd·18:02

    Puck in Benches

    BUF 1·OTT 3

  9. 3rd·17:42

    Tim Stützle faceoff won against Ryan McLeod

    ·

    BUF 1·OTT 3

  10. 3rd·17:42

    Ridly Greig Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Spence (22)

    ·

    BUF 1·OTT 3

  11. 3rd·17:21

    Tage Thompson faceoff won against Ridly Greig

    ·

    BUF 1·OTT 2

  12. 3rd·17:21

    Timeout - Visitor

    BUF 1·OTT 2

  13. 3rd·17:21

    Goalie Stopped

    BUF 1·OTT 2

  14. 3rd·17:19

    Mattias Samuelsson Wrist Shot saved by Linus Ullmark

    ·

    BUF 1·OTT 2

  15. 3rd·17:04

    Peyton Krebs hit Nikolas Matinpalo

    ·

    BUF 1·OTT 2

  16. 3rd·16:58

    Peyton Krebs faceoff won against Brady Tkachuk

    ·

    BUF 1·OTT 2

  17. 3rd·16:58

    Puck in Crowd

    BUF 1·OTT 2

  18. 3rd·15:46

    Tage Thompson faceoff won against Claude Giroux

    ·

    BUF 1·OTT 2

  19. 3rd·15:46

    Puck in Netting

    BUF 1·OTT 2

  20. 3rd·15:43

    Nikolas Matinpalo Wrist Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

    ·

    BUF 1·OTT 2

  21. 3rd·15:35

    Fabian Zetterlund shot blocked by Bowen Byram

    ·

    BUF 1·OTT 2

  22. 3rd·15:30

    Drake Batherson shot blocked by Bowen Byram

    ·

    BUF 1·OTT 2

  23. 3rd·14:58

    Rasmus Dahlin Slap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    BUF 1·OTT 2

  24. 3rd·14:27

    Michael Amadio hit Mattias Samuelsson

    ·

    BUF 1·OTT 2

  25. 3rd·13:55

    Lars Eller faceoff won against Tage Thompson

    ·

    BUF 1·OTT 2

  26. 3rd·13:55

    Goalie Stopped

    BUF 1·OTT 2

  27. 3rd·13:53

    Owen Power Wrist Shot saved by Linus Ullmark

    ·

    BUF 1·OTT 2

  28. 3rd·13:48

    Josh Norris shot blocked by Dylan Cozens

    ·

    BUF 1·OTT 2

  29. 3rd·13:40

    Lassi Thomson hit Josh Norris

    ·

    BUF 1·OTT 2

  30. 3rd·13:24

    Zach Benson faceoff won against Ridly Greig

    ·

    BUF 1·OTT 2

Team stats

BUF

Away

Stat

OTT

Home

22

Shots

24

0.0

PCT

0.0

19

PIM

9

29

Faceoffs W

28

16

Blocks

10

14

Giveaways

13

4

Takeaways

3

Betting line

OTT -1.5·O/U 6.5·BUF +100/OTT -120

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Ryan McLeodBUF · C
    BURSTS7299
  • Rasmus DahlinBUF · D
    DIST MI46.992
  • Nikolas MatinpaloOTT · D
    SKATE MPH22.592
  • Bowen ByramBUF · D
    BURSTS1691
  • Logan StanleyBUF · D
    SHOT MPH95.991

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · OTT favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(OTT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(OTT win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(OTT win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+100

Close price

+100

Open no-vig

47.8%

Close no-vig

47.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR