
BUF
46-22-8

OTT
39-26-10
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · NHL
ttawa Senators held off Buffalo Sabres, 4–1.
OTT -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
BUF · top performer

Peyton Krebs
C · #19
0
G
1
A
—
SOG
OTT · top performer

Ridly Greig
C · #71
1
G
1
A
—
SOG
NHL · Buffalo Sabres at Ottawa Senators · final
NHL · Box scoreEDGE


BUF
46-22-8
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
OTT
39-26-10
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
19
PIM
9
Season series
BUF wins series 2-1
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
OTT -1.5
Total
6.5
Defensive · -2.0 vs avg
Moneyline
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 9 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
6.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
OTT beat BUF 4-1.
Last play
Game End
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| OTT | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
Period scoring
BUF won 0 · OTT won 1
1
2
3
Play-by-play · 308 plays
- 3rd·20:00
Game End
BUF 1·OTT 4
- 3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
BUF 1·OTT 4
- 3rd·18:42
Josh Dunne faceoff won against Lars Eller
·
BUF 1·OTT 4
- 3rd·18:42
Josh Norris Abuse of Officials
BUF 1·OTT 4
- 3rd·18:42
Shane Pinto Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: none
BUF 1·OTT 4
- 3rd·18:19
Zach Benson shot blocked by Ridly Greig
·
BUF 1·OTT 3
- 3rd·18:02
Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Ridly Greig
·
BUF 1·OTT 3
- 3rd·18:02
Puck in Benches
BUF 1·OTT 3
- 3rd·17:42
Tim Stützle faceoff won against Ryan McLeod
·
BUF 1·OTT 3
- 3rd·17:42
Ridly Greig Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Spence (22)
·
BUF 1·OTT 3
- 3rd·17:21
Tage Thompson faceoff won against Ridly Greig
·
BUF 1·OTT 2
- 3rd·17:21
Timeout - Visitor
BUF 1·OTT 2
- 3rd·17:21
Goalie Stopped
BUF 1·OTT 2
- 3rd·17:19
Mattias Samuelsson Wrist Shot saved by Linus Ullmark
·
BUF 1·OTT 2
- 3rd·17:04
Peyton Krebs hit Nikolas Matinpalo
·
BUF 1·OTT 2
- 3rd·16:58
Peyton Krebs faceoff won against Brady Tkachuk
·
BUF 1·OTT 2
- 3rd·16:58
Puck in Crowd
BUF 1·OTT 2
- 3rd·15:46
Tage Thompson faceoff won against Claude Giroux
·
BUF 1·OTT 2
- 3rd·15:46
Puck in Netting
BUF 1·OTT 2
- 3rd·15:43
Nikolas Matinpalo Wrist Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
·
BUF 1·OTT 2
- 3rd·15:35
Fabian Zetterlund shot blocked by Bowen Byram
·
BUF 1·OTT 2
- 3rd·15:30
Drake Batherson shot blocked by Bowen Byram
·
BUF 1·OTT 2
- 3rd·14:58
Rasmus Dahlin Slap Shot Wide Left
·
BUF 1·OTT 2
- 3rd·14:27
Michael Amadio hit Mattias Samuelsson
·
BUF 1·OTT 2
- 3rd·13:55
Lars Eller faceoff won against Tage Thompson
·
BUF 1·OTT 2
- 3rd·13:55
Goalie Stopped
BUF 1·OTT 2
- 3rd·13:53
Owen Power Wrist Shot saved by Linus Ullmark
·
BUF 1·OTT 2
- 3rd·13:48
Josh Norris shot blocked by Dylan Cozens
·
BUF 1·OTT 2
- 3rd·13:40
Lassi Thomson hit Josh Norris
·
BUF 1·OTT 2
- 3rd·13:24
Zach Benson faceoff won against Ridly Greig
·
BUF 1·OTT 2
Team stats
BUF
Away
Stat
OTT
Home
22
Shots
24
0.0
PCT
0.0
19
PIM
9
29
Faceoffs W
28
16
Blocks
10
14
Giveaways
13
4
Takeaways
3
Betting line
OTT -1.5·O/U 6.5·BUF +100/OTT -120
NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
Ryan McLeodBUF · CBURSTS7299
Rasmus DahlinBUF · DDIST MI46.992
Nikolas MatinpaloOTT · DSKATE MPH22.592
Bowen ByramBUF · DBURSTS1691
Logan StanleyBUF · DSHOT MPH95.991
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.2%
ensemble · OTT favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OTT win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OTT win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(OTT win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
+100
Close price
+100
Open no-vig
47.8%
Close no-vig
47.8%
Line barely moved · Graded: miss