Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BUF at OTT?

The model favors BUF, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3OTT

BUF

46-22-8

OTT

39-26-10

NHLThu, Apr 2FinalSeriesBUF wins series 2-1VegasOTT -120

BUF · top performer

Mattias Samuelsson

D · #23

1Points

—

SOG

OTT · top performer

Dylan Cozens

C · #24

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BensonLW · #6	0	0	-2	1	1	0	2	17:35
J. DoanRW · #91	0	0	-2	2	1	1	0	18:25
J. DunneC · #44	0	0	-1	0	2	1	0	7:17
J. GreenwayLW · #12	0	0	-1	0	2	2	0	11:39
P. KrebsC · #19	0	1	1	2	4	1	0	12:16
B. MalenstynLW · #29	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	9:33
R. McLeodC · #71	0	0	-1	1	0	1	2	20:41
J. NorrisC · #9	0	0	-2	1	1	0	10	16:10
J. QuinnRW · #22	0	0	-1	2	2	0	0	15:13
T. ThompsonC · #72	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	17:12
A. TuchRW · #89	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	18:57
J. ZuckerLW · #17	0	0	-2	0	2	1	0	16:48

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. ByramD · #4	0	1	-1	1	0	3	0	22:58
R. DahlinD · #26	0	0	-2	2	0	1	0	22:37
Z. MetsaD · #73	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	16:04
O. PowerD · #25	0	0	0	2	1	2	0	19:34
M. SamuelssonD · #23	1	0	0	2	3	1	0	20:49
L. StanleyD · #64	0	0	-1	2	3	0	5	13:30

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
U. LuukkonenG · #1	22	2	20	.909	58:42

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AmadioRW · #22	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	18:53
D. BathersonRW · #19	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	15:18
N. CousinsC · #21	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	10:25
D. CozensC · #24	1	0	1	6	4	1	0	16:09
L. EllerC · #89	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	8:18
W. FoegeleLW · #37	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	9:42
C. GirouxRW · #28	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	13:52
R. GreigC · #71	1	1	2	1	2	1	0	17:08
S. PintoC · #12	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	20:10
T. StutzleC · #18	0	0	0	2	5	0	0	19:57
B. TkachukLW · #7	0	1	1	0	3	1	7	15:55
F. ZetterlundLW · #20	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	14:12

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CrottyD · #5	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	13:37
T. KlevenD · #43	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1:48
N. MatinpaloD · #33	0	0	-1	2	2	0	0	24:29
J. SpenceD · #10	0	1	3	2	2	3	2	30:48
L. ThomsonD · #60	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	20:55
A. ZubD · #2	0	1	2	0	0	2	0	24:24

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. UllmarkG · #35	22	1	21	.955	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

BUF

Away

Stat

OTT

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

BUF wins series 2-1

Oct 15

OTT4@

BUF8

Dec 24

BUF3@

OTT2

Apr 2

BUF1@

OTT4today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OTT -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BUF+10050%

OTT-12055%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗

Line movement · 57 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

OTT beat BUF 4-1. D. Cozens led the way — 1 G · 6 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
BUF	0	1	0	1
OTT	0	1	3	4

Period scoring

BUF won 0 · OTT won 1

BUF

OTT

Play-by-play · 308 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
BUF 1·OTT 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
BUF 1·OTT 4
3rd·18:42
Josh Dunne faceoff won against Lars Eller
·
BUF 1·OTT 4
3rd·18:42
Josh Norris Abuse of Officials
BUF 1·OTT 4
3rd·18:42
Shane Pinto Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: none
BUF 1·OTT 4
3rd·18:19
Zach Benson shot blocked by Ridly Greig
·
BUF 1·OTT 3
3rd·18:02
Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Ridly Greig
·
BUF 1·OTT 3
3rd·18:02
Puck in Benches
BUF 1·OTT 3
3rd·17:42
Tim Stützle faceoff won against Ryan McLeod
·
BUF 1·OTT 3
3rd·17:42
Ridly Greig Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Jordan Spence (22)
·
BUF 1·OTT 3
3rd·17:21
Tage Thompson faceoff won against Ridly Greig
·
BUF 1·OTT 2
3rd·17:21
Timeout - Visitor
BUF 1·OTT 2
3rd·17:21
Goalie Stopped
BUF 1·OTT 2
3rd·17:19
Mattias Samuelsson Wrist Shot saved by Linus Ullmark
·
BUF 1·OTT 2
3rd·17:04
Peyton Krebs hit Nikolas Matinpalo
·
BUF 1·OTT 2
3rd·16:58
Peyton Krebs faceoff won against Brady Tkachuk
·
BUF 1·OTT 2
3rd·16:58
Puck in Crowd
BUF 1·OTT 2
3rd·15:46
Tage Thompson faceoff won against Claude Giroux
·
BUF 1·OTT 2
3rd·15:46
Puck in Netting
BUF 1·OTT 2
3rd·15:43
Nikolas Matinpalo Wrist Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
·
BUF 1·OTT 2
3rd·15:35
Fabian Zetterlund shot blocked by Bowen Byram
·
BUF 1·OTT 2
3rd·15:30
Drake Batherson shot blocked by Bowen Byram
·
BUF 1·OTT 2
3rd·14:58
Rasmus Dahlin Slap Shot Wide Left
·
BUF 1·OTT 2
3rd·14:27
Michael Amadio hit Mattias Samuelsson
·
BUF 1·OTT 2
3rd·13:55
Lars Eller faceoff won against Tage Thompson
·
BUF 1·OTT 2
3rd·13:55
Goalie Stopped
BUF 1·OTT 2
3rd·13:53
Owen Power Wrist Shot saved by Linus Ullmark
·
BUF 1·OTT 2
3rd·13:48
Josh Norris shot blocked by Dylan Cozens
·
BUF 1·OTT 2
3rd·13:40
Lassi Thomson hit Josh Norris
·
BUF 1·OTT 2
3rd·13:24
Zach Benson faceoff won against Ridly Greig
·
BUF 1·OTT 2

Betting line

OTT -1.5·O/U 6.5·BUF +100/OTT -120

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ttawa Senators held off Buffalo Sabres, 4–1.

OTT -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Dylan Cozens · OTT16:120.6747.8%54.7%16:12 TOI · 0.67 iXG · 47.8% CF · 54.7% xGF
Claude Giroux · OTT14:060.5464.3%76.0%14:06 TOI · 0.54 iXG · 64.3% CF · 76.0% xGF
Jack Quinn · BUF15:240.3151.9%68.5%15:24 TOI · 0.31 iXG · 51.9% CF · 68.5% xGF
Shane Pinto · OTT20:240.3057.9%61.3%20:24 TOI · 0.30 iXG · 57.9% CF · 61.3% xGF
Alex Tuch · WSH19:000.2739.5%39.2%19:00 TOI · 0.27 iXG · 39.5% CF · 39.2% xGF
Ridly Greig · OTT17:360.2634.6%29.3%17:36 TOI · 0.26 iXG · 34.6% CF · 29.3% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Linus Ullmark · OTT21–1.955+0.8221–1 · .955 SV% · +0.82 GSAx
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen · BUF20–2.909+0.4820–2 · .909 SV% · +0.48 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · OTT favored

Elo Static
50.2%
P(OTT win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.2%
P(OTT win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.2%
P(OTT win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+100

Close price

+100

Open no-vig

47.8%

Close no-vig

47.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BUF at OTT?: The model favors BUF, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

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