Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYI at BUF?

The model favors BUF, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1BUF

NYI

42-29-5

BUF

46-21-8

NHLTue, Mar 31FinalSeriesBUF wins series 3-0VegasBUF -175

NYI · top performer

Bo Horvat

C · #14

3Points

—

SOG

BUF · top performer

Jack Quinn

RW · #22

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BarzalC · #13	0	1	0	3	0	0	0	20:24
C. CizikasC · #53	0	0	0	1	3	0	2	13:17
A. DuclairLW · #11	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:29
M. GatcombC · #16	0	0	0	2	3	2	0	11:07
E. HeinemanLW · #51	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	15:21
B. HorvatC · #14	0	3	0	3	1	0	0	21:22
A. LeeLW · #27	1	0	1	2	4	0	5	14:10
K. MacLeanC · #32	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	12:18
J. PageauC · #44	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	15:19
O. PalatLW · #81	0	0	-1	2	1	1	0	11:42
C. RitchieC · #64	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	16:33
B. SchennC · #10	1	1	0	1	3	0	0	18:54

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. BoqvistD · #34	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	13:02
S. MayfieldD · #24	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	12:01
A. PelechD · #3	0	0	0	2	1	2	2	21:17
R. PulockD · #6	0	0	1	2	0	2	0	19:17
M. SchaeferD · #48	0	1	0	4	0	1	0	29:40
C. SoucyD · #4	0	0	-1	0	0	0	4	19:22

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. SorokinG · #30	32	3	29	.906	57:52

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BensonLW · #6	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	13:02
S. CarrickC · #10	0	0	0	1	1	0	5	6:47
J. DoanRW · #91	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	13:17
J. GreenwayLW · #12	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	11:13
P. KrebsC · #19	1	0	0	1	5	0	0	17:37
B. MalenstynLW · #29	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	11:20
R. McLeodC · #71	0	0	-1	2	0	2	0	18:38
J. NorrisC · #9	0	2	1	1	2	0	6	15:04
J. QuinnRW · #22	1	1	-1	7	3	0	0	16:11
T. ThompsonC · #72	1	1	0	3	1	0	0	21:31
A. TuchRW · #89	0	1	0	0	3	2	0	20:25
J. ZuckerLW · #17	0	0	-1	2	1	1	0	15:32

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. ByramD · #4	1	0	0	2	1	3	0	22:14
R. DahlinD · #26	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	23:14
Z. MetsaD · #73	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	14:04
O. PowerD · #25	0	0	-2	1	0	1	0	19:16
M. SamuelssonD · #23	0	1	0	1	3	2	2	22:44
L. StanleyD · #64	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	13:54

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
U. LuukkonenG · #1	28	3	25	.893	59:41

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

NYI

Away

Stat

BUF

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

BUF wins series 3-0

Dec 20

NYI2@

BUF3

Jan 24

BUF5@

NYI0

Mar 31

NYI3@

BUF4today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BUF -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NYI+14541%

BUF-17564%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗

Line movement · 60 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BUF beat NYI 4-3. J. Quinn led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 7 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
NYI	0	1	2	3
BUF	1	0	3	4

Period scoring

NYI won 1 · BUF won 2

NYI

BUF

Play-by-play · 323 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
NYI 3·BUF 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
NYI 3·BUF 4
3rd·19:59
Tage Thompson faceoff won against Bo Horvat
·
NYI 3·BUF 4
3rd·19:59
Brayden Schenn Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (49), Bo Horvat (25)
· ·
NYI 3·BUF 4
3rd·19:50
Mathew Barzal Wrist Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
·
NYI 2·BUF 4
3rd·19:42
Giveaway by Mattias Samuelsson
NYI 2·BUF 4
3rd·19:40
Brayden Schenn hit Mattias Samuelsson
·
NYI 2·BUF 4
3rd·19:20
Bo Horvat Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
NYI 2·BUF 4
3rd·19:19
Matthew Schaefer Wrist Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
·
NYI 2·BUF 4
3rd·19:07
Anders Lee hit Beck Malenstyn
·
NYI 2·BUF 4
3rd·18:48
Beck Malenstyn Slap Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
NYI 2·BUF 4
3rd·18:46
Giveaway by Anders Lee
NYI 2·BUF 4
3rd·18:34
Rasmus Dahlin Snap Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
NYI 2·BUF 4
3rd·18:31
Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Bo Horvat
·
NYI 2·BUF 4
3rd·18:31
High Stick
NYI 2·BUF 4
3rd·18:26
Rasmus Dahlin Wrist Shot Wide Right
NYI 2·BUF 4
3rd·18:23
Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Bo Horvat
·
NYI 2·BUF 4
3rd·18:23
On-Ice Official
NYI 2·BUF 4
3rd·18:19
Rasmus Dahlin Wrist Shot Wide Left
NYI 2·BUF 4
3rd·18:17
Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Bo Horvat
·
NYI 2·BUF 4
3rd·18:17
Bowen Byram Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Samuelsson (28)
·
NYI 2·BUF 4
3rd·18:12
Mattias Samuelsson hit Mathew Barzal
·
NYI 2·BUF 3
3rd·18:06
Bo Horvat faceoff won against Josh Norris
·
NYI 2·BUF 3
3rd·18:06
Goalie Stopped
NYI 2·BUF 3
3rd·18:04
Mathew Barzal Wrist Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
·
NYI 2·BUF 3
3rd·17:51
Giveaway by Mattias Samuelsson
NYI 2·BUF 3
3rd·17:30
Mathew Barzal Backhand saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
·
NYI 2·BUF 3
3rd·17:25
Jean-Gabriel Pageau faceoff won against Peyton Krebs
·
NYI 2·BUF 3
3rd·17:25
Goalie Stopped
NYI 2·BUF 3
3rd·17:23
Adam Pelech Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
NYI 2·BUF 3

Betting line

BUF -1.5·O/U 6.5·NYI +145/BUF -175

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

uffalo Sabres held off New York Islanders, 4–3.

NYI +1.5 cashed (BUF won by 1). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Tage Thompson · BUF21:360.7256.8%63.4%21:36 TOI · 0.72 iXG · 56.8% CF · 63.4% xGF
Zach Benson · BUF13:060.5265.2%70.8%13:06 TOI · 0.52 iXG · 65.2% CF · 70.8% xGF
Jack Quinn · BUF16:180.4964.5%64.5%16:18 TOI · 0.49 iXG · 64.5% CF · 64.5% xGF
Bo Horvat · NYI21:360.4051.0%47.7%21:36 TOI · 0.40 iXG · 51.0% CF · 47.7% xGF
Matthew Schaefer · NYI30:000.3348.3%49.8%30:00 TOI · 0.33 iXG · 48.3% CF · 49.8% xGF
Adam Pelech · NYI21:480.3354.3%51.4%21:48 TOI · 0.33 iXG · 54.3% CF · 51.4% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Ilya Sorokin · NYI29–3.906+0.5429–3 · .906 SV% · +0.54 GSAx
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen · BUF25–3.893-0.4925–3 · .893 SV% · -0.49 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.8%

ensemble · BUF favored

Elo Static
62.8%
P(BUF win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
62.8%
P(BUF win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
62.8%
P(BUF win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-175

Close price

-175

Open no-vig

60.9%

Close no-vig

60.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NYI at BUF?: The model favors BUF, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

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