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FINAL+1BUF
NYI

NYI

42-29-5

34
BUF

BUF

46-21-8

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLTue, Mar 31FinalSeriesBUF wins series 3-0VegasBUF -175

Recap · NHL

uffalo Sabres held off New York Islanders, 4–3.

NYI +1.5 cashed (BUF won by 1). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYI · top performer

NYI
Bo Horvat

Bo Horvat

C · #14

3Points

0

G

3

A

—

SOG

BUF · top performer

BUF
Josh Norris

Josh Norris

C · #9

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · New York Islanders at Buffalo Sabres · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
3
4
NYI42-29-5BUF46-21-8
NYI

NYI

42-29-5

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
BUF

BUF

46-21-8

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

15

PIM

13

Season series

BUF wins series 3-0

Dec 20NYINYI2@BUFBUF3
Jan 24BUFBUF5@NYINYI0
Mar 31NYINYI3@BUFBUF4today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BUF -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NYINYI+14541%
BUFBUF-17564%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BUF beat NYI 4-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
NYI0123
BUF1034

Period scoring

NYI won 1 · BUF won 2

0
1

1

1
0

2

2
3

3

NYI
BUF

Play-by-play · 323 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    NYI 3·BUF 4

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    NYI 3·BUF 4

  3. 3rd·19:59

    Tage Thompson faceoff won against Bo Horvat

    ·

    NYI 3·BUF 4

  4. 3rd·19:59

    Brayden Schenn Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (49), Bo Horvat (25)

    · ·

    NYI 3·BUF 4

  5. 3rd·19:50

    Mathew Barzal Wrist Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

    ·

    NYI 2·BUF 4

  6. 3rd·19:42

    Giveaway by Mattias Samuelsson

    NYI 2·BUF 4

  7. 3rd·19:40

    Brayden Schenn hit Mattias Samuelsson

    ·

    NYI 2·BUF 4

  8. 3rd·19:20

    Bo Horvat Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    NYI 2·BUF 4

  9. 3rd·19:19

    Matthew Schaefer Wrist Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

    ·

    NYI 2·BUF 4

  10. 3rd·19:07

    Anders Lee hit Beck Malenstyn

    ·

    NYI 2·BUF 4

  11. 3rd·18:48

    Beck Malenstyn Slap Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin

    ·

    NYI 2·BUF 4

  12. 3rd·18:46

    Giveaway by Anders Lee

    NYI 2·BUF 4

  13. 3rd·18:34

    Rasmus Dahlin Snap Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin

    ·

    NYI 2·BUF 4

  14. 3rd·18:31

    Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Bo Horvat

    ·

    NYI 2·BUF 4

  15. 3rd·18:31

    High Stick

    NYI 2·BUF 4

  16. 3rd·18:26

    Rasmus Dahlin Wrist Shot Wide Right

    NYI 2·BUF 4

  17. 3rd·18:23

    Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Bo Horvat

    ·

    NYI 2·BUF 4

  18. 3rd·18:23

    On-Ice Official

    NYI 2·BUF 4

  19. 3rd·18:19

    Rasmus Dahlin Wrist Shot Wide Left

    NYI 2·BUF 4

  20. 3rd·18:17

    Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Bo Horvat

    ·

    NYI 2·BUF 4

  21. 3rd·18:17

    Bowen Byram Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Samuelsson (28)

    ·

    NYI 2·BUF 4

  22. 3rd·18:12

    Mattias Samuelsson hit Mathew Barzal

    ·

    NYI 2·BUF 3

  23. 3rd·18:06

    Bo Horvat faceoff won against Josh Norris

    ·

    NYI 2·BUF 3

  24. 3rd·18:06

    Goalie Stopped

    NYI 2·BUF 3

  25. 3rd·18:04

    Mathew Barzal Wrist Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

    ·

    NYI 2·BUF 3

  26. 3rd·17:51

    Giveaway by Mattias Samuelsson

    NYI 2·BUF 3

  27. 3rd·17:30

    Mathew Barzal Backhand saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

    ·

    NYI 2·BUF 3

  28. 3rd·17:25

    Jean-Gabriel Pageau faceoff won against Peyton Krebs

    ·

    NYI 2·BUF 3

  29. 3rd·17:25

    Goalie Stopped

    NYI 2·BUF 3

  30. 3rd·17:23

    Adam Pelech Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    NYI 2·BUF 3

Team stats

NYI

Away

Stat

BUF

Home

28

Shots

33

33.3

PCT

50.0

15

PIM

13

32

Faceoffs W

27

10

Blocks

15

12

Giveaways

19

6

Takeaways

1

Betting line

BUF -1.5·O/U 6.5·NYI +145/BUF -175

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Matthew SchaeferNYI · D
    BURSTS26999+
  • Ryan PulockNYI · D
    SHOT MPH103.099+
  • Mathew BarzalNYI · C
    DIST MI274.399
  • Emil HeinemanNYI · LW
    SHOT MPH97.399
  • Ryan McLeodBUF · C
    BURSTS7299

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · BUF favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-175

Close price

-175

Open no-vig

60.9%

Close no-vig

60.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR