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FINAL+5BUF
BUF

BUF

43-20-6

50
SJ

SJ

32-29-6

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Mar 19FinalSeriesBUF wins series 2-0VegasBUF -142

Recap · NHL

uffalo Sabres went into San Jose Sharks and beat them, 5–0.

BUF -1.5 cashed (won by 5). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BUF · top performer

BUF
Sam Carrick

Sam Carrick

C · #10

2Points

2

G

0

A

—

SOG

SJ · top performer

SJ
Macklin Celebrini

Macklin Celebrini

C · #71

0Points

0

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Buffalo Sabres at San Jose Sharks · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
5
0
BUF43-20-6SJ32-29-6
BUF

BUF

43-20-6

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
SJ

SJ

32-29-6

0
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

PIM

4

Season series

BUF wins series 2-0

Mar 10SJSJ3@BUFBUF6
Mar 20BUFBUF5@SJSJ0today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BUF -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BUFBUF-14259%
SJSJ+12045%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BUF beat SJ 5-0.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
BUF0325
SJ0000

Period scoring

BUF won 2 · SJ won 0

0
0

1

3
0

2

2
0

3

BUF
SJ

Play-by-play · 269 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    BUF 5·SJ 0

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    BUF 5·SJ 0

  3. 3rd·19:23

    Shakir Mukhamadullin hit Beck Malenstyn

    ·

    BUF 5·SJ 0

  4. 3rd·19:16

    Josh Norris faceoff won against Zack Ostapchuk

    ·

    BUF 5·SJ 0

  5. 3rd·19:16

    Icing

    BUF 5·SJ 0

  6. 3rd·18:59

    Josh Doan Tip-In saved by Alex Nedeljkovic

    ·

    BUF 5·SJ 0

  7. 3rd·18:13

    Sam Dickinson Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    BUF 5·SJ 0

  8. 3rd·17:45

    Macklin Celebrini faceoff won against Ryan McLeod

    ·

    BUF 5·SJ 0

  9. 3rd·17:45

    Icing

    BUF 5·SJ 0

  10. 3rd·17:39

    Giveaway by Michael Misa

    BUF 5·SJ 0

  11. 3rd·17:30

    Giveaway by Shakir Mukhamadullin

    BUF 5·SJ 0

  12. 3rd·17:27

    Logan Stanley Wrist Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic

    ·

    BUF 5·SJ 0

  13. 3rd·17:12

    Giveaway by Zach Metsa

    BUF 5·SJ 0

  14. 3rd·17:01

    Kiefer Sherwood hit Zach Metsa

    ·

    BUF 5·SJ 0

  15. 3rd·16:54

    Michael Misa faceoff won against Ryan McLeod

    ·

    BUF 5·SJ 0

  16. 3rd·16:54

    Sam Carrick Goal (8) Deflected, assists: Logan Stanley (14), Zach Metsa (3)

    · ·

    BUF 5·SJ 0

  17. 3rd·16:47

    Sam Carrick faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg

    ·

    BUF 4·SJ 0

  18. 3rd·16:47

    Off-side

    BUF 4·SJ 0

  19. 3rd·16:37

    Giveaway by Sam Dickinson

    BUF 4·SJ 0

  20. 3rd·16:23

    Sam Dickinson Wrist Shot saved by Alex Lyon

    ·

    BUF 4·SJ 0

  21. 3rd·15:56

    Barclay Goodrow hit Tage Thompson

    ·

    BUF 4·SJ 0

  22. 3rd·15:20

    Bowen Byram Wrist Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic

    ·

    BUF 4·SJ 0

  23. 3rd·15:13

    Jack Quinn shot blocked by Mario Ferraro

    ·

    BUF 4·SJ 0

  24. 3rd·14:41

    Giveaway by Zack Ostapchuk

    BUF 4·SJ 0

  25. 3rd·14:37

    Vincent Desharnais hit Ryan McLeod

    ·

    BUF 4·SJ 0

  26. 3rd·14:13

    Takeaway by Zack Ostapchuk

    BUF 4·SJ 0

  27. 3rd·13:45

    Alexander Wennberg faceoff won against Ryan McLeod

    ·

    BUF 4·SJ 0

  28. 3rd·13:45

    Puck in Crowd

    BUF 4·SJ 0

  29. 3rd·13:40

    Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg

    ·

    BUF 4·SJ 0

  30. 3rd·13:40

    Barclay Goodrow Slashing against Peyton Krebs

    ·

    BUF 4·SJ 0

Team stats

BUF

Away

Stat

SJ

Home

16

Shots

23

0.0

PCT

0.0

4

PIM

4

24

Faceoffs W

24

14

Blocks

16

10

Giveaways

19

4

Takeaways

6

Betting line

BUF -1.5·O/U 6.5·BUF -142/SJ +120

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 skaters with EDGE
  • Ryan McLeodBUF · C
    BURSTS7299
  • Rasmus DahlinBUF · D
    DIST MI46.992
  • Bowen ByramBUF · D
    BURSTS1691
  • Logan StanleyBUF · D
    SHOT MPH95.991
  • Josh NorrisBUF · C
    SKATE MPH22.989

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · SJ favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(SJ win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(SJ win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(SJ win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+120

Close price

+120

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

43.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR