Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BUF at SJ?

The model favors SJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+5BUF

BUF

43-20-6

32-29-6

NHLThu, Mar 19FinalSeriesBUF wins series 2-0VegasBUF -142

BUF · top performer

Sam Carrick

C · #10

2Points

—

SOG

SJ · top performer

Kiefer Sherwood

LW · #44

0Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BensonLW · #6	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	11:59
S. CarrickC · #10	2	0	2	3	0	0	0	13:27
J. DoanRW · #91	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	15:17
P. KrebsC · #19	0	1	1	0	2	1	0	14:17
B. MalenstynLW · #29	0	0	2	0	3	0	0	13:54
R. McLeodC · #71	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:58
J. NorrisC · #9	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	14:54
N. OstlundC · #86	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	16:06
J. QuinnRW · #22	0	0	1	2	1	1	0	14:55
T. ThompsonC · #72	1	0	1	1	3	0	0	16:50
A. TuchRW · #89	0	1	1	0	1	2	0	17:36
J. ZuckerLW · #17	0	1	1	2	0	0	2	14:08

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. ByramD · #4	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	24:07
R. DahlinD · #26	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	19:15
Z. MetsaD · #73	0	1	2	0	0	1	0	15:48
O. PowerD · #25	0	0	1	0	0	3	2	20:47
M. SamuelssonD · #23	0	1	2	1	0	1	0	18:36
L. StanleyD · #64	0	2	2	1	1	2	0	18:06

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. LyonG · #34	23	0	23	1.000	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. CelebriniC · #71	0	0	-1	1	3	1	0	21:33
W. EklundLW · #72	0	0	-2	2	0	0	0	15:54
A. GaudetteRW · #81	0	0	-2	0	1	0	0	10:54
B. GoodrowC · #23	0	0	-1	3	2	0	2	11:36
C. GrafRW · #51	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	17:27
M. MisaC · #77	0	0	-1	0	1	2	0	14:20
Z. OstapchukC · #63	0	0	-1	2	1	1	0	11:40
P. RegendaLW · #84	0	0	-1	0	3	0	0	14:16
K. SherwoodLW · #44	0	0	-2	4	3	1	0	20:43
W. SmithC · #2	0	0	-1	3	0	0	0	20:29
T. ToffoliC · #73	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	3:41
A. WennbergC · #21	0	0	-2	0	2	1	2	17:42

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. DesharnaisD · #5	0	0	-1	1	3	4	0	19:51
S. DickinsonD · #6	0	0	-2	1	2	3	0	19:02
M. FerraroD · #38	0	0	-2	1	3	3	0	23:06
N. LeddyD · #4	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	18:15
S. MukhamadullinD · #85	0	0	-2	0	2	0	0	16:16
D. OrlovD · #9	0	0	-2	1	1	0	0	19:15

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. NedeljkovicG · #33	16	5	11	.688	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

BUF

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

BUF wins series 2-0

Mar 10

SJ3@

BUF6

Mar 20

BUF5@

SJ0today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BUF -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BUF-14259%

SJ+12045%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗

Line movement · 24 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BUF beat SJ 5-0. S. Carrick led the way — 2 G · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
BUF	0	3	2	5
SJ	0	0	0	0

Period scoring

BUF won 2 · SJ won 0

BUF

Play-by-play · 269 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
BUF 5·SJ 0
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
BUF 5·SJ 0
3rd·19:23
Shakir Mukhamadullin hit Beck Malenstyn
·
BUF 5·SJ 0
3rd·19:16
Josh Norris faceoff won against Zack Ostapchuk
·
BUF 5·SJ 0
3rd·19:16
Icing
BUF 5·SJ 0
3rd·18:59
Josh Doan Tip-In saved by Alex Nedeljkovic
·
BUF 5·SJ 0
3rd·18:13
Sam Dickinson Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
BUF 5·SJ 0
3rd·17:45
Macklin Celebrini faceoff won against Ryan McLeod
·
BUF 5·SJ 0
3rd·17:45
Icing
BUF 5·SJ 0
3rd·17:39
Giveaway by Michael Misa
BUF 5·SJ 0
3rd·17:30
Giveaway by Shakir Mukhamadullin
BUF 5·SJ 0
3rd·17:27
Logan Stanley Wrist Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic
·
BUF 5·SJ 0
3rd·17:12
Giveaway by Zach Metsa
BUF 5·SJ 0
3rd·17:01
Kiefer Sherwood hit Zach Metsa
·
BUF 5·SJ 0
3rd·16:54
Michael Misa faceoff won against Ryan McLeod
·
BUF 5·SJ 0
3rd·16:54
Sam Carrick Goal (8) Deflected, assists: Logan Stanley (14), Zach Metsa (3)
· ·
BUF 5·SJ 0
3rd·16:47
Sam Carrick faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
BUF 4·SJ 0
3rd·16:47
Off-side
BUF 4·SJ 0
3rd·16:37
Giveaway by Sam Dickinson
BUF 4·SJ 0
3rd·16:23
Sam Dickinson Wrist Shot saved by Alex Lyon
·
BUF 4·SJ 0
3rd·15:56
Barclay Goodrow hit Tage Thompson
·
BUF 4·SJ 0
3rd·15:20
Bowen Byram Wrist Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic
·
BUF 4·SJ 0
3rd·15:13
Jack Quinn shot blocked by Mario Ferraro
·
BUF 4·SJ 0
3rd·14:41
Giveaway by Zack Ostapchuk
BUF 4·SJ 0
3rd·14:37
Vincent Desharnais hit Ryan McLeod
·
BUF 4·SJ 0
3rd·14:13
Takeaway by Zack Ostapchuk
BUF 4·SJ 0
3rd·13:45
Alexander Wennberg faceoff won against Ryan McLeod
·
BUF 4·SJ 0
3rd·13:45
Puck in Crowd
BUF 4·SJ 0
3rd·13:40
Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
BUF 4·SJ 0
3rd·13:40
Barclay Goodrow Slashing against Peyton Krebs
·
BUF 4·SJ 0

Betting line

BUF -1.5·O/U 6.5·BUF -142/SJ +120

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

uffalo Sabres went into San Jose Sharks and beat them, 5–0.

BUF -1.5 cashed (won by 5). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

46.6%

ensemble · BUF favored

Elo Static
46.6%
P(SJ win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
46.6%
P(SJ win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
46.6%
P(SJ win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+120

Close price

+120

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

43.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in BUF at SJ?: The model favors SJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Buffalo SabresSan Jose Sharks

Elsewhere in the NHL