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FINAL+1WSH
WSH

WSH

33-27-7

21
BUF

BUF

40-20-6

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Mar 12FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasBUF -218

Recap · NHL

ashington Capitals went into Buffalo Sabres and beat them, 2–1.

WSH +1.5 cashed (BUF lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

WSH · top performer

WSH
Ryan Leonard

Ryan Leonard

RW · #9

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

BUF · top performer

BUF
Sam Carrick

Sam Carrick

C · #10

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Washington Capitals at Buffalo Sabres · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
2
1
WSH33-27-7BUF40-20-6
WSH

WSH

33-27-7

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
BUF

BUF

40-20-6

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

PIM

4

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Nov 1WSHWSH3@BUFBUF4
Mar 12WSHWSH2@BUFBUF1today
Apr 4BUFBUF2@WSHWSH6

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BUF -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

WSHWSH+18036%
BUFBUF-21869%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

WSH beat BUF 2-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
WSH0112
BUF1001

Period scoring

WSH won 2 · BUF won 1

0
1

1

1
0

2

1
0

3

WSH
BUF

Play-by-play · 304 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    WSH 2·BUF 1

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    WSH 2·BUF 1

  3. 3rd·19:56

    Rasmus Dahlin hit Martin Fehervary

    ·

    WSH 2·BUF 1

  4. 3rd·19:36

    Tage Thompson shot blocked by Pierre-Luc Dubois

    ·

    WSH 2·BUF 1

  5. 3rd·19:16

    Pierre-Luc Dubois faceoff won against Ryan McLeod

    ·

    WSH 2·BUF 1

  6. 3rd·19:16

    Icing

    WSH 2·BUF 1

  7. 3rd·19:13

    Connor McMichael Wrist Shot Wide Right

    WSH 2·BUF 1

  8. 3rd·18:55

    Tage Thompson shot blocked by Matt Roy

    ·

    WSH 2·BUF 1

  9. 3rd·18:44

    Tom Wilson shot blocked by Bowen Byram

    ·

    WSH 2·BUF 1

  10. 3rd·18:27

    Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Pierre-Luc Dubois

    ·

    WSH 2·BUF 1

  11. 3rd·18:27

    Timeout - Home

    WSH 2·BUF 1

  12. 3rd·18:27

    Jakob Chychrun Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (24), Trevor van Riemsdyk (7)

    · ·

    WSH 2·BUF 1

  13. 3rd·18:20

    Aliaksei Protas Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    WSH 1·BUF 1

  14. 3rd·18:19

    Trevor van Riemsdyk Slap Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

    ·

    WSH 1·BUF 1

  15. 3rd·17:58

    Takeaway by Dylan Strome

    WSH 1·BUF 1

  16. 3rd·17:50

    Bowen Byram Wrist Shot saved by Charlie Lindgren

    ·

    WSH 1·BUF 1

  17. 3rd·17:43

    Giveaway by Dylan Strome

    WSH 1·BUF 1

  18. 3rd·17:37

    Takeaway by Jakob Chychrun

    WSH 1·BUF 1

  19. 3rd·17:00

    Connor McMichael hit Peyton Krebs

    ·

    WSH 1·BUF 1

  20. 3rd·16:00

    Dylan Strome faceoff won against Tage Thompson

    ·

    WSH 1·BUF 1

  21. 3rd·16:00

    Icing

    WSH 1·BUF 1

  22. 3rd·15:43

    Aliaksei Protas Slap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    WSH 1·BUF 1

  23. 3rd·15:41

    Dylan Strome faceoff won against Sam Carrick

    ·

    WSH 1·BUF 1

  24. 3rd·15:41

    Goalie Stopped

    WSH 1·BUF 1

  25. 3rd·15:39

    Trevor van Riemsdyk Wrist Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

    ·

    WSH 1·BUF 1

  26. 3rd·15:36

    Tom Wilson Tip-In Wide Right

    ·

    WSH 1·BUF 1

  27. 3rd·15:13

    Pierre-Luc Dubois faceoff won against Ryan McLeod

    ·

    WSH 1·BUF 1

  28. 3rd·15:13

    Puck in Netting

    WSH 1·BUF 1

  29. 3rd·15:01

    Giveaway by Luke Schenn

    WSH 1·BUF 1

  30. 3rd·14:50

    Logan Stanley Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    WSH 1·BUF 1

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

BUF

Home

22

Shots

30

0.0

PCT

0.0

4

PIM

4

18

Faceoffs W

27

17

Blocks

11

17

Giveaways

13

9

Takeaways

5

Betting line

BUF -1.5·O/U 6.5·WSH +180/BUF -218

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Ryan LeonardWSH · RW
    SKATE MPH24.399
  • Alex OvechkinWSH · LW
    SHOT MPH97.399
  • Ryan McLeodBUF · C
    BURSTS7299
  • Ethen FrankWSH · C
    BURSTS22797
  • Jakob ChychrunWSH · D
    DIST MI264.495

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · BUF favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR