NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1WSH

WSH

33-27-7

BUF

40-20-6

NHLThu, Mar 12FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasBUF -218

WSH · top performer

Ryan Leonard

RW · #9

1Points

—

SOG

BUF · top performer

Sam Carrick

C · #10

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. BeauvillierLW · #72	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:07
P. DuboisLW · #80	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	19:41
B. DuhaimeRW · #22	0	0	0	0	3	5	0	12:17
E. FrankC · #53	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	10:30
H. LapierreC · #29	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	13:17
R. LeonardRW · #9	1	0	2	1	1	0	0	13:46
C. McMichaelC · #24	0	0	0	2	2	1	2	14:15
A. OvechkinLW · #8	0	0	-1	2	1	2	0	14:03
A. ProtasC · #21	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	16:31
J. SourdifRW · #34	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	14:50
D. StromeC · #17	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	15:25
T. WilsonRW · #43	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	20:34

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChychrunD · #6	1	0	2	1	0	1	0	20:25
M. FehervaryD · #42	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	19:56
T. LiljegrenD · #27	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	15:50
M. RoyD · #3	0	0	-1	1	1	2	0	21:46
R. SandinD · #38	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	19:47
T. van RiemsdykD · #57	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	19:00

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. LindgrenG · #79	30	1	29	.967	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BensonLW · #6	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	17:15
S. CarrickC · #10	1	0	1	2	1	1	0	10:51
J. DoanRW · #91	0	0	-1	3	0	0	0	14:42
P. KrebsC · #19	0	0	-1	1	4	1	0	13:44
B. MalenstynLW · #29	0	1	1	1	3	0	0	10:25
R. McLeodC · #71	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	17:26
J. NorrisC · #9	0	0	-1	2	1	0	0	15:45
N. OstlundC · #86	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	16:49
T. PearsonLW · #70	0	0	1	3	0	0	2	8:58
J. QuinnRW · #22	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	16:19
T. ThompsonC · #72	0	0	0	5	2	0	0	22:04
J. ZuckerLW · #17	0	0	-1	3	5	1	0	17:07

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. ByramD · #4	0	0	0	3	1	2	0	23:02
R. DahlinD · #26	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	23:28
O. PowerD · #25	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	21:29
M. SamuelssonD · #23	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	20:30
L. SchennD · #5	0	0	-1	0	2	1	0	14:31
L. StanleyD · #64	0	0	-1	1	1	0	2	13:02

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
U. LuukkonenG · #1	22	2	20	.909	58:33

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

BUF

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Nov 1

WSH3@

BUF4

Mar 12

WSH2@

BUF1today

Apr 4

BUF2@

WSH6

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BUF -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

WSH+18036%

BUF-21869%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗

Line movement · 31 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

WSH beat BUF 2-1. R. Leonard led the way — 1 G · 1 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
WSH	0	1	1	2
BUF	1	0	0	1

Period scoring

WSH won 2 · BUF won 1

WSH

BUF

Play-by-play · 304 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
WSH 2·BUF 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
WSH 2·BUF 1
3rd·19:56
Rasmus Dahlin hit Martin Fehervary
·
WSH 2·BUF 1
3rd·19:36
Tage Thompson shot blocked by Pierre-Luc Dubois
·
WSH 2·BUF 1
3rd·19:16
Pierre-Luc Dubois faceoff won against Ryan McLeod
·
WSH 2·BUF 1
3rd·19:16
Icing
WSH 2·BUF 1
3rd·19:13
Connor McMichael Wrist Shot Wide Right
WSH 2·BUF 1
3rd·18:55
Tage Thompson shot blocked by Matt Roy
·
WSH 2·BUF 1
3rd·18:44
Tom Wilson shot blocked by Bowen Byram
·
WSH 2·BUF 1
3rd·18:27
Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Pierre-Luc Dubois
·
WSH 2·BUF 1
3rd·18:27
Timeout - Home
WSH 2·BUF 1
3rd·18:27
Jakob Chychrun Goal (23) Snap Shot, assists: Aliaksei Protas (24), Trevor van Riemsdyk (7)
· ·
WSH 2·BUF 1
3rd·18:20
Aliaksei Protas Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
WSH 1·BUF 1
3rd·18:19
Trevor van Riemsdyk Slap Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
·
WSH 1·BUF 1
3rd·17:58
Takeaway by Dylan Strome
WSH 1·BUF 1
3rd·17:50
Bowen Byram Wrist Shot saved by Charlie Lindgren
·
WSH 1·BUF 1
3rd·17:43
Giveaway by Dylan Strome
WSH 1·BUF 1
3rd·17:37
Takeaway by Jakob Chychrun
WSH 1·BUF 1
3rd·17:00
Connor McMichael hit Peyton Krebs
·
WSH 1·BUF 1
3rd·16:00
Dylan Strome faceoff won against Tage Thompson
·
WSH 1·BUF 1
3rd·16:00
Icing
WSH 1·BUF 1
3rd·15:43
Aliaksei Protas Slap Shot Wide Right
·
WSH 1·BUF 1
3rd·15:41
Dylan Strome faceoff won against Sam Carrick
·
WSH 1·BUF 1
3rd·15:41
Goalie Stopped
WSH 1·BUF 1
3rd·15:39
Trevor van Riemsdyk Wrist Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
·
WSH 1·BUF 1
3rd·15:36
Tom Wilson Tip-In Wide Right
·
WSH 1·BUF 1
3rd·15:13
Pierre-Luc Dubois faceoff won against Ryan McLeod
·
WSH 1·BUF 1
3rd·15:13
Puck in Netting
WSH 1·BUF 1
3rd·15:01
Giveaway by Luke Schenn
WSH 1·BUF 1
3rd·14:50
Logan Stanley Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
WSH 1·BUF 1

Betting line

BUF -1.5·O/U 6.5·WSH +180/BUF -218

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ashington Capitals went into Buffalo Sabres and beat them, 2–1.

WSH +1.5 cashed (BUF lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Tom Wilson · WSH20:480.6257.9%59.8%20:48 TOI · 0.62 iXG · 57.9% CF · 59.8% xGF
Josh Doan · BUF14:540.4876.0%83.1%14:54 TOI · 0.48 iXG · 76.0% CF · 83.1% xGF
Tage Thompson · BUF22:240.3663.8%55.7%22:24 TOI · 0.36 iXG · 63.8% CF · 55.7% xGF
Alex Ovechkin · WSH14:000.3658.6%60.0%14:00 TOI · 0.36 iXG · 58.6% CF · 60.0% xGF
Jason Zucker · BUF17:180.3461.4%59.0%17:18 TOI · 0.34 iXG · 61.4% CF · 59.0% xGF
Tanner Pearson · BUF9:000.3263.2%70.5%9:00 TOI · 0.32 iXG · 63.2% CF · 70.5% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Charlie Lindgren · WSH29–1.967+1.8129–1 · .967 SV% · +1.81 GSAx
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen · BUF20–2.909+0.5620–2 · .909 SV% · +0.56 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

67.0%

ensemble · BUF favored

Elo Static
67.0%
P(BUF win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
67.0%
P(BUF win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
67.0%
P(BUF win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Team pages

Washington CapitalsBuffalo Sabres

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