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FINAL+4WSH
BUF

BUF

46-23-8

26
WSH

WSH

39-29-9

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Apr 4FinalSeriesWSH wins series 2-1VegasBUF -115

Recap · NHL

ashington Capitals held off Buffalo Sabres, 6–2.

WSH +1.5 cashed (BUF lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BUF · top performer

BUF
Jordan Greenway

Jordan Greenway

LW · #12

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

WSH · top performer

WSH
Pierre-Luc Dubois

Pierre-Luc Dubois

LW · #80

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · Buffalo Sabres at Washington Capitals · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
2
6
BUF46-23-8WSH39-29-9
BUF

BUF

46-23-8

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
WSH

WSH

39-29-9

6
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

14

PIM

20

Season series

WSH wins series 2-1

Nov 1WSHWSH3@BUFBUF4
Mar 12WSHWSH2@BUFBUF1
Apr 4BUFBUF2@WSHWSH6today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BUF -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BUFBUF-11553%
WSHWSH-10551%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗

Line movement · 13 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

WSH beat BUF 6-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
BUF2002
WSH3126

Period scoring

BUF won 0 · WSH won 3

2
3

1

0
1

2

0
2

3

BUF
WSH

Play-by-play · 318 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    BUF 2·WSH 6

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    BUF 2·WSH 6

  3. 3rd·19:55

    Logan Stanley Slap Shot saved by Logan Thompson

    · ·

    BUF 2·WSH 6

  4. 3rd·19:54

    Giveaway by Jakob Chychrun

    BUF 2·WSH 6

  5. 3rd·19:50

    Giveaway by Jack Quinn

    BUF 2·WSH 6

  6. 3rd·19:21

    Justin Sourdif Tip-In Above Crossbar

    ·

    BUF 2·WSH 6

  7. 3rd·19:20

    Giveaway by Logan Stanley

    BUF 2·WSH 6

  8. 3rd·18:52

    Dylan Strome faceoff won against Ryan McLeod

    ·

    BUF 2·WSH 6

  9. 3rd·18:52

    Goalie Stopped

    BUF 2·WSH 6

  10. 3rd·18:50

    Alex Ovechkin Snap Shot saved by Colten Ellis

    ·

    BUF 2·WSH 6

  11. 3rd·18:43

    Giveaway by Tage Thompson

    ·

    BUF 2·WSH 6

  12. 3rd·18:34

    Dylan Strome Snap Shot saved by Colten Ellis

    ·

    BUF 2·WSH 6

  13. 3rd·17:46

    Peyton Krebs faceoff won against Hendrix Lapierre

    ·

    BUF 2·WSH 6

  14. 3rd·17:46

    Icing

    BUF 2·WSH 6

  15. 3rd·17:15

    Justin Sourdif faceoff won against Peyton Krebs

    ·

    BUF 2·WSH 6

  16. 3rd·17:15

    Zach Benson Misconduct

    BUF 2·WSH 6

  17. 3rd·17:15

    Martin Fehervary Misconduct

    BUF 2·WSH 6

  18. 3rd·16:40

    Josh Norris faceoff won against Hendrix Lapierre

    ·

    BUF 2·WSH 6

  19. 3rd·16:40

    Icing

    BUF 2·WSH 6

  20. 3rd·16:04

    Dylan Strome Snap Shot saved by Colten Ellis

    ·

    BUF 2·WSH 6

  21. 3rd·15:43

    Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Dylan Strome

    ·

    BUF 2·WSH 6

  22. 3rd·15:43

    Goalie Stopped

    BUF 2·WSH 6

  23. 3rd·15:41

    Tage Thompson Slap Shot saved by Logan Thompson

    ·

    BUF 2·WSH 6

  24. 3rd·15:35

    Jason Zucker Snap Shot saved by Logan Thompson

    · ·

    BUF 2·WSH 6

  25. 3rd·15:10

    Rasmus Dahlin Slap Shot saved by Logan Thompson

    · ·

    BUF 2·WSH 6

  26. 3rd·14:56

    Takeaway by Cole Hutson

    BUF 2·WSH 6

  27. 3rd·14:47

    Josh Doan hit Martin Fehervary

    ·

    BUF 2·WSH 6

  28. 3rd·14:09

    Hendrix Lapierre faceoff won against Peyton Krebs

    ·

    BUF 2·WSH 6

  29. 3rd·14:09

    Hand Pass

    BUF 2·WSH 6

  30. 3rd·14:05

    Giveaway by Beck Malenstyn

    BUF 2·WSH 6

Team stats

BUF

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

39

Shots

28

0.0

PCT

0.0

14

PIM

20

33

Faceoffs W

31

8

Blocks

10

17

Giveaways

18

3

Takeaways

9

Betting line

BUF -1.5·O/U 6.5·BUF -115/WSH -105

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Ryan LeonardWSH · RW
    SKATE MPH24.399
  • Alex OvechkinWSH · LW
    SHOT MPH97.399
  • Ryan McLeodBUF · C
    BURSTS7299
  • Ethen FrankWSH · C
    BURSTS22797
  • Jakob ChychrunWSH · D
    DIST MI264.495

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · WSH favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(WSH win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(WSH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR