NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4WSH

BUF

46-23-8

WSH

39-29-9

NHLSat, Apr 4FinalSeriesWSH wins series 2-1VegasBUF -115

BUF · top performer

Rasmus Dahlin

D · #26

2Points

—

SOG

WSH · top performer

Connor McMichael

C · #24

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BensonLW · #6	0	0	-2	3	0	1	12	15:20
J. DoanRW · #91	0	0	-3	1	1	0	0	12:57
J. GreenwayLW · #12	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	13:32
T. KozakC · #48	0	0	1	0	3	0	0	12:15
P. KrebsC · #19	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	12:05
B. MalenstynLW · #29	1	0	1	1	4	0	0	12:27
R. McLeodC · #71	0	0	-3	0	0	0	0	16:53
J. NorrisC · #9	0	1	0	4	1	1	0	15:48
J. QuinnRW · #22	0	0	-3	6	0	0	0	18:27
T. ThompsonC · #72	0	0	-3	5	1	1	0	19:20
A. TuchRW · #89	0	1	1	5	0	2	0	16:20
J. ZuckerLW · #17	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	18:20

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. ByramD · #4	0	0	-3	0	1	0	0	20:59
R. DahlinD · #26	1	1	1	3	1	0	0	22:28
Z. MetsaD · #73	0	0	-3	0	0	1	0	15:15
O. PowerD · #25	0	0	-2	2	0	0	0	20:22
M. SamuelssonD · #23	0	0	2	2	0	2	2	19:54
L. StanleyD · #64	0	0	-2	3	0	0	0	13:18

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. EllisG · #92	23	3	20	.870	54:08
A. LyonG · #34	5	3	2	.400	5:52

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. BeauvillierLW · #72	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:44
P. DuboisLW · #80	0	2	2	1	0	0	0	12:58
B. DuhaimeRW · #22	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	11:43
E. FrankC · #53	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	9:34
H. LapierreC · #29	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	11:05
R. LeonardRW · #9	1	0	1	2	2	0	2	12:55
C. McMichaelC · #24	1	1	3	5	1	2	2	16:03
A. OvechkinLW · #8	0	2	1	4	1	0	0	17:01
A. ProtasC · #21	1	1	1	4	0	1	0	16:15
J. SourdifRW · #34	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	15:25
D. StromeC · #17	1	0	2	4	0	1	2	16:38
T. WilsonRW · #43	1	0	2	1	1	0	0	17:19

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChychrunD · #6	1	1	1	2	1	0	0	19:40
M. FehervaryD · #42	0	0	2	0	0	3	10	21:10
C. HutsonD · #44	0	1	2	2	0	0	2	18:58
M. RoyD · #3	0	0	2	1	3	1	0	20:56
R. SandinD · #38	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	20:25
T. van RiemsdykD · #57	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	16:11

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. ThompsonG · #48	39	2	37	.949	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

BUF

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

WSH wins series 2-1

Nov 1

WSH3@

BUF4

Mar 12

WSH2@

BUF1

Apr 4

BUF2@

WSH6today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BUF -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BUF-11553%

WSH-10551%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗

Line movement · 56 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

WSH beat BUF 6-2. C. McMichael led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
BUF	2	0	0	2
WSH	3	1	2	6

Period scoring

BUF won 0 · WSH won 3

BUF

WSH

Play-by-play · 318 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
BUF 2·WSH 6
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
BUF 2·WSH 6
3rd·19:55
Logan Stanley Slap Shot saved by Logan Thompson
· ·
BUF 2·WSH 6
3rd·19:54
Giveaway by Jakob Chychrun
BUF 2·WSH 6
3rd·19:50
Giveaway by Jack Quinn
BUF 2·WSH 6
3rd·19:21
Justin Sourdif Tip-In Above Crossbar
·
BUF 2·WSH 6
3rd·19:20
Giveaway by Logan Stanley
BUF 2·WSH 6
3rd·18:52
Dylan Strome faceoff won against Ryan McLeod
·
BUF 2·WSH 6
3rd·18:52
Goalie Stopped
BUF 2·WSH 6
3rd·18:50
Alex Ovechkin Snap Shot saved by Colten Ellis
·
BUF 2·WSH 6
3rd·18:43
Giveaway by Tage Thompson
·
BUF 2·WSH 6
3rd·18:34
Dylan Strome Snap Shot saved by Colten Ellis
·
BUF 2·WSH 6
3rd·17:46
Peyton Krebs faceoff won against Hendrix Lapierre
·
BUF 2·WSH 6
3rd·17:46
Icing
BUF 2·WSH 6
3rd·17:15
Justin Sourdif faceoff won against Peyton Krebs
·
BUF 2·WSH 6
3rd·17:15
Zach Benson Misconduct
BUF 2·WSH 6
3rd·17:15
Martin Fehervary Misconduct
BUF 2·WSH 6
3rd·16:40
Josh Norris faceoff won against Hendrix Lapierre
·
BUF 2·WSH 6
3rd·16:40
Icing
BUF 2·WSH 6
3rd·16:04
Dylan Strome Snap Shot saved by Colten Ellis
·
BUF 2·WSH 6
3rd·15:43
Ryan McLeod faceoff won against Dylan Strome
·
BUF 2·WSH 6
3rd·15:43
Goalie Stopped
BUF 2·WSH 6
3rd·15:41
Tage Thompson Slap Shot saved by Logan Thompson
·
BUF 2·WSH 6
3rd·15:35
Jason Zucker Snap Shot saved by Logan Thompson
· ·
BUF 2·WSH 6
3rd·15:10
Rasmus Dahlin Slap Shot saved by Logan Thompson
· ·
BUF 2·WSH 6
3rd·14:56
Takeaway by Cole Hutson
BUF 2·WSH 6
3rd·14:47
Josh Doan hit Martin Fehervary
·
BUF 2·WSH 6
3rd·14:09
Hendrix Lapierre faceoff won against Peyton Krebs
·
BUF 2·WSH 6
3rd·14:09
Hand Pass
BUF 2·WSH 6
3rd·14:05
Giveaway by Beck Malenstyn
BUF 2·WSH 6

Betting line

BUF -1.5·O/U 6.5·BUF -115/WSH -105

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ashington Capitals held off Buffalo Sabres, 6–2.

WSH +1.5 cashed (BUF lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Connor McMichael · STL16:000.6641.7%44.1%16:00 TOI · 0.66 iXG · 41.7% CF · 44.1% xGF
Alex Ovechkin · WSH17:060.6358.5%62.9%17:06 TOI · 0.63 iXG · 58.5% CF · 62.9% xGF
Jack Quinn · BUF18:360.6165.9%72.2%18:36 TOI · 0.61 iXG · 65.9% CF · 72.2% xGF
Tage Thompson · BUF19:300.6065.0%64.7%19:30 TOI · 0.60 iXG · 65.0% CF · 64.7% xGF
Josh Norris · BUF16:000.4855.2%65.0%16:00 TOI · 0.48 iXG · 55.2% CF · 65.0% xGF
Dylan Strome · WSH16:540.4657.5%61.4%16:54 TOI · 0.46 iXG · 57.5% CF · 61.4% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Logan Thompson · WSH37–2.949+2.0437–2 · .949 SV% · +2.04 GSAx
Colten Ellis · BUF20–3.870-0.8320–3 · .870 SV% · -0.83 GSAx
Alex Lyon · BUF2–3.400-2.202–3 · .400 SV% · -2.20 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.6%

ensemble · BUF favored

Elo Static
48.6%
P(WSH win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
48.6%
P(WSH win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
48.6%
P(WSH win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Team pages

Buffalo SabresWashington Capitals

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