Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PIT at CIN?

The model favors CIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Box Score — Jul 31, 2026

FINAL+1CIN

PIT

55-56

CIN

52-57

Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio

30,618 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CIN spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 8.0 · -0.5

CIN no-vig %

46.8%

open 46.8%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

46.1%

ensemble · PIT favored

Elo Static
49.0%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
45.5%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
48.3%
P(CIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.50 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

90% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.89

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+104

Close price

+113

Open no-vig

46.8%

Close no-vig

44.9%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PIT at CIN?: The model favors CIN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+18.9pp

best edge · PIT · DraftKings

PIT

★ best

+188DraftKings

edge +18.9pp · implied 32.6%

CIN

no live price

Book	PIT	CIN	Best edge
DraftKings	+188★	-253	+18.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CIN vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

129

projections · 106 high confidence

Strikeouts

Paul SkenesPIT
7.2± 2.1high
Hunter GreeneCIN
6.6± 4.7low
Chase BurnsCIN
6.5± 2.5high

Hits

Brandon LowePIT
1.4± 1.1high
Elly De La CruzCIN
1.1± 1.0high
Jake MangumPIT
1.1± 0.6high

Total bases

Brandon LowePIT
2.4± 1.9high
Jose TrevinoCIN
2.0± 3.2high
Elly De La CruzCIN
1.9± 2.1high

RBIs

Sal StewartCIN
1.0± 1.4high
Elly De La CruzCIN
0.6± 0.8high
Jose TrevinoCIN
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Hunter GreeneCIN
4.2± 4.1low
Braxton AshcraftPIT
3.0± 2.4high
Paul SkenesPIT
2.9± 1.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PIT

league avg

CIN

.748

OPS

◀

.720

.707

.334

OBP

◀

.318

.310

5.08

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.17

4.30

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.43

1.33

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.41

9.3

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CIN wins

PIT 7 · CIN 8 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked PIT +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
PIT	2	1	0	0	1	0	0	3	0	7
CIN	2	0	1	2	0	0	0	3	8

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Team pages

Pittsburgh PiratesCincinnati Reds

Elsewhere in the MLB

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. MangumCF	.304	4	1	2	2	1	1	1
B. Lowe2B	.257	5	1	3	1	0	0	2
B. ReynoldsLF	.268	5	1	2	0	0	0	1
E. ValdezRF	.271	3	1	0	1	0	1	1
R. O'HearnRF	.270	4	0	1	0	0	1	0
N. Gonzales3B	.318	4	1	2	2	0	0	0
E. RodriguezC	.259	5	1	1	0	0	0	2
J. GonzalezSS	.200	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
H. DavisC	.173	4	1	1	1	0	0	0
J. TrioloSS	.243	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		38	7	12	7	1	3	8

Player

.304

.257

.268

.271

.270

.318

.259

.200

.173

.243

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. SkenesSP	4.0	7	5	5	4	7	100
A. KellySP	3.0	2	0	0	2	3	40
W. DotelRP	0.1	3	3	2	0	1	18
M. MontgomeryRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	1	12
Team	8.0	12	8	7	7	12	170

Player

P. SkenesSP

4.0

100

A. KellySP

3.0

W. DotelRP

0.1

M. MontgomeryRP

0.2

Team

8.0

170

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. De La CruzSS	.279	3	1	1	0	0	2	1
S. Stewart1B	.255	5	2	2	4	1	0	0
J. BledayLF	.229	3	2	1	1	1	2	1
T. StephensonC	.252	3	1	1	1	0	2	2
N. LoweDH	.258	5	0	2	1	0	0	2
E. SuarezDH	.200	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
D. MyersCF	.276	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
N. MarteRF	.200	4	1	3	0	0	0	1
M. McLain2B	.192	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
I. Johnson2B	.100	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. Hayes3B	.141	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		35	8	12	7	2	7	12

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
H. GreeneSP	6.0	7	4	4	2	4	91
S. MollRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	2	16
J. GarciaRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. FergusonRP	0.1	2	2	2	0	0	7
P. JohnsonRP	0.2	3	1	1	0	1	17
E. PaganRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14
Team	9.0	12	7	7	3	8	146

Team

PIT

CIN

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

CIN vs PIT.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CIN vs PIT.

3 sub-models, blended.