
TB
48-23-6

BUF
47-23-8
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · NHL
uffalo Sabres held off Tampa Bay Lightning, 4–2.
BUF +1.5 cashed (TB lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
TB · top performer

Jake Guentzel
C · #59
1
G
1
A
—
SOG
BUF · top performer

Jason Zucker
LW · #17
1
G
1
A
—
SOG
NHL · Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres · final
NHL · Box scoreEDGE


TB
48-23-6
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
BUF
47-23-8
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
12
PIM
14
Season series
BUF wins series 3-1
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
TB -1.5
Total
6.5
Defensive · -2.0 vs avg
Moneyline
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 9 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
6.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
BUF beat TB 4-2.
Last play
Game End
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| BUF | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
Period scoring
TB won 0 · BUF won 2
1
2
3
Play-by-play · 320 plays
- 3rd·20:00
Game End
TB 2·BUF 4
- 3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
TB 2·BUF 4
- 3rd·19:51
Nick Paul hit Peyton Krebs
·
TB 2·BUF 4
- 3rd·19:47
Nick Paul Backhand Wide Right
·
TB 2·BUF 4
- 3rd·19:41
Ryan McDonagh Slap Shot Short
·
TB 2·BUF 4
- 3rd·19:08
Jake Guentzel Snap Shot Wide Left
·
TB 2·BUF 4
- 3rd·19:00
Giveaway by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
TB 2·BUF 4
- 3rd·18:18
Charle-Edouard D'Astous shot blocked by Beck Malenstyn
·
TB 2·BUF 4
- 3rd·18:17
Jake Guentzel Snap Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
·
TB 2·BUF 4
- 3rd·18:06
Brayden Point faceoff won against Josh Dunne
·
TB 2·BUF 4
- 3rd·18:06
Jack Quinn Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Zucker (18), Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (1)
· ·
TB 2·BUF 4
- 3rd·18:01
Charle-Edouard D'Astous hit Jason Zucker
·
TB 2·BUF 3
- 3rd·17:56
Jake Guentzel Wrist Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
·
TB 2·BUF 3
- 3rd·17:45
Giveaway by Yanni Gourde
TB 2·BUF 3
- 3rd·17:33
Oliver Bjorkstrand hit Rasmus Dahlin
·
TB 2·BUF 3
- 3rd·17:20
Erik Cernak hit Alex Tuch
·
TB 2·BUF 3
- 3rd·16:44
Jake Guentzel faceoff won against Peyton Krebs
·
TB 2·BUF 3
- 3rd·16:44
Icing
TB 2·BUF 3
- 3rd·16:30
Charle-Edouard D'Astous Snap Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
·
TB 2·BUF 3
- 3rd·15:58
Josh Norris faceoff won against Jake Guentzel
·
TB 2·BUF 3
- 3rd·15:58
Puck Frozen - Goalie
TB 2·BUF 3
- 3rd·15:56
Josh Dunne faceoff won against Nick Paul
·
TB 2·BUF 3
- 3rd·15:56
Icing
TB 2·BUF 3
- 3rd·15:54
Charle-Edouard D'Astous hit Beck Malenstyn
·
TB 2·BUF 3
- 3rd·15:53
Oliver Bjorkstrand hit Owen Power
·
TB 2·BUF 3
- 3rd·15:45
Emil Lilleberg Snap Shot Short
·
TB 2·BUF 3
- 3rd·15:40
Beck Malenstyn hit Charle-Edouard D'Astous
·
TB 2·BUF 3
- 3rd·14:22
Takeaway by Ryan McLeod
TB 2·BUF 3
- 3rd·14:15
Alex Tuch faceoff won against Jake Guentzel
·
TB 2·BUF 3
- 3rd·14:15
Goalie Stopped
TB 2·BUF 3
Team stats
TB
Away
Stat
BUF
Home
25
Shots
30
20.0
PCT
0.0
12
PIM
14
31
Faceoffs W
28
10
Blocks
10
18
Giveaways
13
5
Takeaways
4
Betting line
TB -1.5·O/U 6.5·TB -122/BUF +102
NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 14 skaters with EDGE
Ryan McLeodBUF · CBURSTS7299
Rasmus DahlinBUF · DDIST MI46.992
Bowen ByramBUF · DBURSTS1691
Logan StanleyBUF · DSHOT MPH95.991
Josh NorrisBUF · CSKATE MPH22.989
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.2%
ensemble · BUF favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BUF win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BUF win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BUF win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
+102
Close price
+102
Open no-vig
47.4%
Close no-vig
47.4%
Line barely moved · Graded: hit