Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TB at BUF?

The model favors BUF, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2BUF

48-23-6

BUF

47-23-8

NHLMon, Apr 6FinalSeriesBUF wins series 3-1VegasTB -122

TB · top performer

Jake Guentzel

C · #59

2Points

—

SOG

BUF · top performer

Alex Tuch

RW · #89

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. BjorkstrandRW · #22	0	0	0	1	5	1	0	14:57
M. ChaffeeRW · #41	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	6:23
Z. GirgensonsC · #28	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	11:29
G. GoncalvesC · #93	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	19:17
Y. GourdeC · #37	0	0	-2	0	0	1	0	14:53
J. GuentzelC · #59	1	1	-1	6	1	0	2	24:54
P. HolmbergRW · #29	0	0	-2	0	1	1	2	8:21
N. KucherovRW · #86	1	0	-1	3	0	0	0	23:30
N. PaulLW · #20	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	18:05
C. PerryRW · #10	0	0	-2	1	0	1	2	12:36
B. PointC · #21	0	1	-1	2	1	0	0	20:11
S. SabourinRW · #46	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	5:58

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. CernakD · #81	0	0	0	1	1	2	2	13:58
C. D'AstousD · #51	0	0	-1	3	2	0	2	18:02
E. LillebergD · #78	0	0	-1	0	2	2	0	16:58
R. McDonaghD · #27	0	0	-1	0	0	2	0	16:44
J.J. MoserD · #90	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	19:54
D. RaddyshD · #43	0	2	-2	4	0	0	0	25:45

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. VasilevskiyG · #88	29	3	26	.897	58:05

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BensonLW · #6	0	1	1	3	1	0	2	17:44
J. DoanRW · #91	0	1	1	0	2	0	2	14:40
J. DunneC · #44	0	0	0	1	0	2	2	7:58
J. GreenwayLW · #12	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	11:19
P. KrebsC · #19	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	12:37
B. MalenstynLW · #29	0	0	0	1	5	2	0	12:53
R. McLeodC · #71	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	17:31
J. NorrisC · #9	1	0	1	2	2	1	0	17:10
J. QuinnRW · #22	1	0	2	4	0	0	2	14:24
T. ThompsonC · #72	0	0	-1	1	3	0	0	17:56
A. TuchRW · #89	1	0	0	6	2	0	4	17:59
J. ZuckerLW · #17	1	1	2	4	0	0	0	13:44

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. ByramD · #4	0	2	2	1	0	0	0	21:16
R. DahlinD · #26	0	1	2	1	1	0	0	23:01
O. PowerD · #25	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	19:48
M. SamuelssonD · #23	0	0	2	1	2	1	0	22:44
L. SchennD · #5	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	12:54
L. StanleyD · #64	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	12:40

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
U. LuukkonenG · #1	25	2	23	.920	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

Away

Stat

BUF

Home

Shots

20.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

BUF wins series 3-1

Feb 4

BUF3@

TB4

Mar 1

BUF6@

TB2

Mar 8

TB7@

BUF8

Apr 6

TB2@

BUF4today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TB-12255%

BUF+10250%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 26 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BUF beat TB 4-2. A. Tuch led the way — 1 G · 6 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
TB	1	1	0	2
BUF	2	1	1	4

Period scoring

TB won 0 · BUF won 2

BUF

Play-by-play · 320 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
TB 2·BUF 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
TB 2·BUF 4
3rd·19:51
Nick Paul hit Peyton Krebs
·
TB 2·BUF 4
3rd·19:47
Nick Paul Backhand Wide Right
·
TB 2·BUF 4
3rd·19:41
Ryan McDonagh Slap Shot Short
·
TB 2·BUF 4
3rd·19:08
Jake Guentzel Snap Shot Wide Left
·
TB 2·BUF 4
3rd·19:00
Giveaway by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
TB 2·BUF 4
3rd·18:18
Charle-Edouard D'Astous shot blocked by Beck Malenstyn
·
TB 2·BUF 4
3rd·18:17
Jake Guentzel Snap Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
·
TB 2·BUF 4
3rd·18:06
Brayden Point faceoff won against Josh Dunne
·
TB 2·BUF 4
3rd·18:06
Jack Quinn Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Zucker (18), Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (1)
· ·
TB 2·BUF 4
3rd·18:01
Charle-Edouard D'Astous hit Jason Zucker
·
TB 2·BUF 3
3rd·17:56
Jake Guentzel Wrist Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
·
TB 2·BUF 3
3rd·17:45
Giveaway by Yanni Gourde
TB 2·BUF 3
3rd·17:33
Oliver Bjorkstrand hit Rasmus Dahlin
·
TB 2·BUF 3
3rd·17:20
Erik Cernak hit Alex Tuch
·
TB 2·BUF 3
3rd·16:44
Jake Guentzel faceoff won against Peyton Krebs
·
TB 2·BUF 3
3rd·16:44
Icing
TB 2·BUF 3
3rd·16:30
Charle-Edouard D'Astous Snap Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
·
TB 2·BUF 3
3rd·15:58
Josh Norris faceoff won against Jake Guentzel
·
TB 2·BUF 3
3rd·15:58
Puck Frozen - Goalie
TB 2·BUF 3
3rd·15:56
Josh Dunne faceoff won against Nick Paul
·
TB 2·BUF 3
3rd·15:56
Icing
TB 2·BUF 3
3rd·15:54
Charle-Edouard D'Astous hit Beck Malenstyn
·
TB 2·BUF 3
3rd·15:53
Oliver Bjorkstrand hit Owen Power
·
TB 2·BUF 3
3rd·15:45
Emil Lilleberg Snap Shot Short
·
TB 2·BUF 3
3rd·15:40
Beck Malenstyn hit Charle-Edouard D'Astous
·
TB 2·BUF 3
3rd·14:22
Takeaway by Ryan McLeod
TB 2·BUF 3
3rd·14:15
Alex Tuch faceoff won against Jake Guentzel
·
TB 2·BUF 3
3rd·14:15
Goalie Stopped
TB 2·BUF 3

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 6.5·TB -122/BUF +102

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

uffalo Sabres held off Tampa Bay Lightning, 4–2.

BUF +1.5 cashed (TB lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Alex Tuch · WSH18:120.9157.7%74.9%18:12 TOI · 0.91 iXG · 57.7% CF · 74.9% xGF
Jake Guentzel · TBL25:060.8058.3%61.4%25:06 TOI · 0.80 iXG · 58.3% CF · 61.4% xGF
Jason Zucker · BUF14:000.5071.4%77.4%14:00 TOI · 0.50 iXG · 71.4% CF · 77.4% xGF
Nikita Kucherov · TBL23:300.4865.9%60.8%23:30 TOI · 0.48 iXG · 65.9% CF · 60.8% xGF
Zach Benson · BUF18:000.4341.7%40.8%18:00 TOI · 0.43 iXG · 41.7% CF · 40.8% xGF
Brayden Point · TBL20:120.3477.1%79.9%20:12 TOI · 0.34 iXG · 77.1% CF · 79.9% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen · BUF23–2.920+0.2623–2 · .920 SV% · +0.26 GSAx
Andrei Vasilevskiy · TBL26–3.897+0.2226–3 · .897 SV% · +0.22 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.5%

ensemble · BUF favored

Elo Static
55.5%
P(BUF win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
55.5%
P(BUF win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
55.5%
P(BUF win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+102

Close price

+102

Open no-vig

47.4%

Close no-vig

47.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TB at BUF?: The model favors BUF, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

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