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FINAL+2BUF
TB

TB

48-23-6

24
BUF

BUF

47-23-8

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLMon, Apr 6FinalSeriesBUF wins series 3-1VegasTB -122

Recap · NHL

uffalo Sabres held off Tampa Bay Lightning, 4–2.

BUF +1.5 cashed (TB lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

TB · top performer

TB
Jake Guentzel

Jake Guentzel

C · #59

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

BUF · top performer

BUF
Jason Zucker

Jason Zucker

LW · #17

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
2
4
TB48-23-6BUF47-23-8
TB

TB

48-23-6

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
BUF

BUF

47-23-8

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

PIM

14

Season series

BUF wins series 3-1

Feb 4BUFBUF3@TBTB4
Mar 1BUFBUF6@TBTB2
Mar 8TBTB7@BUFBUF8
Apr 6TBTB2@BUFBUF4today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

TBTB-12255%
BUFBUF+10250%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BUF beat TB 4-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
TB1102
BUF2114

Period scoring

TB won 0 · BUF won 2

1
2

1

1
1

2

0
1

3

TB
BUF

Play-by-play · 320 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    TB 2·BUF 4

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    TB 2·BUF 4

  3. 3rd·19:51

    Nick Paul hit Peyton Krebs

    ·

    TB 2·BUF 4

  4. 3rd·19:47

    Nick Paul Backhand Wide Right

    ·

    TB 2·BUF 4

  5. 3rd·19:41

    Ryan McDonagh Slap Shot Short

    ·

    TB 2·BUF 4

  6. 3rd·19:08

    Jake Guentzel Snap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    TB 2·BUF 4

  7. 3rd·19:00

    Giveaway by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

    TB 2·BUF 4

  8. 3rd·18:18

    Charle-Edouard D'Astous shot blocked by Beck Malenstyn

    ·

    TB 2·BUF 4

  9. 3rd·18:17

    Jake Guentzel Snap Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

    ·

    TB 2·BUF 4

  10. 3rd·18:06

    Brayden Point faceoff won against Josh Dunne

    ·

    TB 2·BUF 4

  11. 3rd·18:06

    Jack Quinn Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Jason Zucker (18), Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (1)

    · ·

    TB 2·BUF 4

  12. 3rd·18:01

    Charle-Edouard D'Astous hit Jason Zucker

    ·

    TB 2·BUF 3

  13. 3rd·17:56

    Jake Guentzel Wrist Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

    ·

    TB 2·BUF 3

  14. 3rd·17:45

    Giveaway by Yanni Gourde

    TB 2·BUF 3

  15. 3rd·17:33

    Oliver Bjorkstrand hit Rasmus Dahlin

    ·

    TB 2·BUF 3

  16. 3rd·17:20

    Erik Cernak hit Alex Tuch

    ·

    TB 2·BUF 3

  17. 3rd·16:44

    Jake Guentzel faceoff won against Peyton Krebs

    ·

    TB 2·BUF 3

  18. 3rd·16:44

    Icing

    TB 2·BUF 3

  19. 3rd·16:30

    Charle-Edouard D'Astous Snap Shot saved by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

    ·

    TB 2·BUF 3

  20. 3rd·15:58

    Josh Norris faceoff won against Jake Guentzel

    ·

    TB 2·BUF 3

  21. 3rd·15:58

    Puck Frozen - Goalie

    TB 2·BUF 3

  22. 3rd·15:56

    Josh Dunne faceoff won against Nick Paul

    ·

    TB 2·BUF 3

  23. 3rd·15:56

    Icing

    TB 2·BUF 3

  24. 3rd·15:54

    Charle-Edouard D'Astous hit Beck Malenstyn

    ·

    TB 2·BUF 3

  25. 3rd·15:53

    Oliver Bjorkstrand hit Owen Power

    ·

    TB 2·BUF 3

  26. 3rd·15:45

    Emil Lilleberg Snap Shot Short

    ·

    TB 2·BUF 3

  27. 3rd·15:40

    Beck Malenstyn hit Charle-Edouard D'Astous

    ·

    TB 2·BUF 3

  28. 3rd·14:22

    Takeaway by Ryan McLeod

    TB 2·BUF 3

  29. 3rd·14:15

    Alex Tuch faceoff won against Jake Guentzel

    ·

    TB 2·BUF 3

  30. 3rd·14:15

    Goalie Stopped

    TB 2·BUF 3

Team stats

TB

Away

Stat

BUF

Home

25

Shots

30

20.0

PCT

0.0

12

PIM

14

31

Faceoffs W

28

10

Blocks

10

18

Giveaways

13

5

Takeaways

4

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 6.5·TB -122/BUF +102

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 skaters with EDGE
  • Ryan McLeodBUF · C
    BURSTS7299
  • Rasmus DahlinBUF · D
    DIST MI46.992
  • Bowen ByramBUF · D
    BURSTS1691
  • Logan StanleyBUF · D
    SHOT MPH95.991
  • Josh NorrisBUF · C
    SKATE MPH22.989

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · BUF favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+102

Close price

+102

Open no-vig

47.4%

Close no-vig

47.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR