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FINAL+5BUF
CBJ

CBJ

39-28-12

05
BUF

BUF

49-23-8

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Apr 9FinalSeriesCBJ win series 2-1VegasBUF -102

Recap · NHL

uffalo Sabres held off Columbus Blue Jackets, 5–0.

BUF -1.5 cashed (won by 5). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CBJ · top performer

CBJ
Charlie Coyle

Charlie Coyle

C · #3

0Points

0

G

0

A

—

SOG

BUF · top performer

BUF
Josh Doan

Josh Doan

RW · #91

2Points

2

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Columbus Blue Jackets at Buffalo Sabres · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
0
5
CBJ39-28-12BUF49-23-8
CBJ

CBJ

39-28-12

0
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
BUF

BUF

49-23-8

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

PIM

8

Season series

CBJ win series 2-1

Oct 28CBJCBJ4@BUFBUF3
Jan 3BUFBUF1@CBJCBJ5
Apr 9CBJCBJ0@BUFBUF5today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BUF -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CBJCBJ-11854%
BUFBUF-10250%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗

Line movement · 14 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BUF beat CBJ 5-0.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
CBJ0000
BUF1045

Period scoring

CBJ won 0 · BUF won 2

0
1

1

0
0

2

0
4

3

CBJ
BUF

Play-by-play · 309 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    CBJ 0·BUF 5

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    CBJ 0·BUF 5

  3. 3rd·19:24

    Miles Wood Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    CBJ 0·BUF 5

  4. 3rd·18:58

    Mason Marchment shot blocked by Rasmus Dahlin

    ·

    CBJ 0·BUF 5

  5. 3rd·18:14

    Josh Norris faceoff won against Isac Lundeström

    ·

    CBJ 0·BUF 5

  6. 3rd·18:14

    Off-side

    CBJ 0·BUF 5

  7. 3rd·18:07

    Tage Thompson faceoff won against Isac Lundeström

    ·

    CBJ 0·BUF 5

  8. 3rd·18:07

    Off-side

    CBJ 0·BUF 5

  9. 3rd·17:52

    Boone Jenner shot blocked by Bowen Byram

    ·

    CBJ 0·BUF 5

  10. 3rd·16:55

    Tyson Kozak faceoff won against Sean Monahan

    ·

    CBJ 0·BUF 5

  11. 3rd·16:55

    Rasmus Dahlin Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Logan Stanley (16), Tyson Kozak (3)

    · ·

    CBJ 0·BUF 5

  12. 3rd·16:49

    Tyson Kozak faceoff won against Charlie Coyle

    ·

    CBJ 0·BUF 4

  13. 3rd·16:49

    Puck Frozen - Goalie

    CBJ 0·BUF 4

  14. 3rd·16:46

    Tyson Kozak faceoff won against Charlie Coyle

    ·

    CBJ 0·BUF 4

  15. 3rd·16:46

    Goalie Stopped

    CBJ 0·BUF 4

  16. 3rd·16:44

    Sean Monahan Wrist Shot saved by Colten Ellis

    ·

    CBJ 0·BUF 4

  17. 3rd·16:31

    Kirill Marchenko Wrist Shot saved by Colten Ellis

    ·

    CBJ 0·BUF 4

  18. 3rd·16:27

    Sean Monahan faceoff won against Ryan McLeod

    ·

    CBJ 0·BUF 4

  19. 3rd·16:27

    Goalie Stopped

    CBJ 0·BUF 4

  20. 3rd·16:26

    Conor Garland Wrist Shot saved by Colten Ellis

    ·

    CBJ 0·BUF 4

  21. 3rd·16:24

    Mason Marchment Wrist Shot saved by Colten Ellis

    ·

    CBJ 0·BUF 4

  22. 3rd·16:18

    Kirill Marchenko shot blocked by Beck Malenstyn

    ·

    CBJ 0·BUF 4

  23. 3rd·16:15

    Charlie Coyle faceoff won against Josh Norris

    ·

    CBJ 0·BUF 4

  24. 3rd·16:15

    Puck Frozen - Goalie

    CBJ 0·BUF 4

  25. 3rd·16:09

    Zach Werenski Slap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    CBJ 0·BUF 4

  26. 3rd·15:54

    Kirill Marchenko shot blocked by Alex Tuch

    ·

    CBJ 0·BUF 4

  27. 3rd·15:45

    Zach Werenski Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    CBJ 0·BUF 4

  28. 3rd·15:21

    Ivan Provorov Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    CBJ 0·BUF 4

  29. 3rd·15:08

    Mattias Samuelsson hit Adam Fantilli

    ·

    CBJ 0·BUF 4

  30. 3rd·15:07

    Adam Fantilli Wrist Shot saved by Colten Ellis

    ·

    CBJ 0·BUF 4

Team stats

CBJ

Away

Stat

BUF

Home

37

Shots

24

0.0

PCT

0.0

4

PIM

8

33

Faceoffs W

24

9

Blocks

20

16

Giveaways

10

4

Takeaways

4

Betting line

BUF -1.5·O/U 6.5·CBJ -118/BUF -102

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Ivan ProvorovCBJ · D
    DIST MI299.999+
  • Ryan McLeodBUF · C
    BURSTS7299
  • Kirill MarchenkoCBJ · RW
    BURSTS30199
  • Zach WerenskiCBJ · D
    DIST MI289.198
  • Adam FantilliCBJ · C
    DIST MI256.696

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · BUF favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-102

Close price

-102

Open no-vig

48.3%

Close no-vig

48.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR