Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CBJ at BUF?

The model favors BUF, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+5BUF

CBJ

39-28-12

BUF

49-23-8

NHLThu, Apr 9FinalSeriesCBJ win series 2-1VegasBUF -102

CBJ · top performer

Adam Fantilli

C · #19

0Points

—

SOG

BUF · top performer

Josh Doan

RW · #91

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CoyleC · #3	0	0	-4	0	6	0	0	23:04
A. FantilliC · #19	0	0	-2	5	2	2	2	21:25
C. GarlandRW · #83	0	0	-1	4	0	0	2	12:39
D. HeinenLW · #43	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	11:39
B. JennerC · #38	0	0	-1	3	5	0	0	12:50
K. JohnsonC · #91	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	9:18
I. LundestromC · #21	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:29
K. MarchenkoRW · #86	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	21:58
M. MarchmentLW · #17	0	0	-2	3	2	0	0	17:56
S. MonahanC · #23	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	15:25
C. SillingerC · #4	0	0	-2	1	1	0	0	13:37
M. WoodLW · #11	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	10:22

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. FabbroD · #15	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	16:30
E. GudbransonD · #44	0	0	-2	0	1	3	0	15:46
D. MateychukD · #5	0	0	-1	4	0	1	0	18:06
I. ProvorovD · #9	0	0	-4	5	0	0	0	24:41
Z. WerenskiD · #8	0	0	-3	5	0	0	0	28:46
E. ZamulaD · #6	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	10:37

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. GreavesG · #73	23	4	19	.826	57:52

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BensonLW · #6	0	1	2	1	1	0	2	15:39
J. DoanRW · #91	2	0	3	4	0	1	0	14:42
J. GreenwayLW · #12	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	12:00
T. KozakC · #48	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	9:38
P. KrebsC · #19	1	0	1	1	4	1	0	14:35
B. MalenstynLW · #29	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	11:30
R. McLeodC · #71	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	15:53
J. NorrisC · #9	0	2	3	1	1	0	0	14:36
J. QuinnRW · #22	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	14:48
T. ThompsonC · #72	0	0	1	2	1	2	2	16:47
A. TuchRW · #89	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	21:16
J. ZuckerLW · #17	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	14:18

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. ByramD · #4	0	0	2	0	0	1	0	19:32
R. DahlinD · #26	1	0	2	3	1	1	0	19:47
Z. MetsaD · #73	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	19:26
O. PowerD · #25	0	0	3	2	0	4	2	20:11
M. SamuelssonD · #23	0	0	2	2	1	5	0	21:03
L. StanleyD · #64	0	2	2	1	0	1	0	16:19

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. EllisG · #92	37	0	37	1.000	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

CBJ

Away

Stat

BUF

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

CBJ win series 2-1

Oct 28

CBJ4@

BUF3

Jan 3

BUF1@

CBJ5

Apr 9

CBJ0@

BUF5today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BUF -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CBJ-11854%

BUF-10250%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗

Line movement · 61 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

BUF beat CBJ 5-0. J. Doan led the way — 2 G · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
CBJ	0	0	0	0
BUF	1	0	4	5

Period scoring

CBJ won 0 · BUF won 2

CBJ

BUF

Play-by-play · 309 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
CBJ 0·BUF 5
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CBJ 0·BUF 5
3rd·19:24
Miles Wood Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
CBJ 0·BUF 5
3rd·18:58
Mason Marchment shot blocked by Rasmus Dahlin
·
CBJ 0·BUF 5
3rd·18:14
Josh Norris faceoff won against Isac Lundeström
·
CBJ 0·BUF 5
3rd·18:14
Off-side
CBJ 0·BUF 5
3rd·18:07
Tage Thompson faceoff won against Isac Lundeström
·
CBJ 0·BUF 5
3rd·18:07
Off-side
CBJ 0·BUF 5
3rd·17:52
Boone Jenner shot blocked by Bowen Byram
·
CBJ 0·BUF 5
3rd·16:55
Tyson Kozak faceoff won against Sean Monahan
·
CBJ 0·BUF 5
3rd·16:55
Rasmus Dahlin Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Logan Stanley (16), Tyson Kozak (3)
· ·
CBJ 0·BUF 5
3rd·16:49
Tyson Kozak faceoff won against Charlie Coyle
·
CBJ 0·BUF 4
3rd·16:49
Puck Frozen - Goalie
CBJ 0·BUF 4
3rd·16:46
Tyson Kozak faceoff won against Charlie Coyle
·
CBJ 0·BUF 4
3rd·16:46
Goalie Stopped
CBJ 0·BUF 4
3rd·16:44
Sean Monahan Wrist Shot saved by Colten Ellis
·
CBJ 0·BUF 4
3rd·16:31
Kirill Marchenko Wrist Shot saved by Colten Ellis
·
CBJ 0·BUF 4
3rd·16:27
Sean Monahan faceoff won against Ryan McLeod
·
CBJ 0·BUF 4
3rd·16:27
Goalie Stopped
CBJ 0·BUF 4
3rd·16:26
Conor Garland Wrist Shot saved by Colten Ellis
·
CBJ 0·BUF 4
3rd·16:24
Mason Marchment Wrist Shot saved by Colten Ellis
·
CBJ 0·BUF 4
3rd·16:18
Kirill Marchenko shot blocked by Beck Malenstyn
·
CBJ 0·BUF 4
3rd·16:15
Charlie Coyle faceoff won against Josh Norris
·
CBJ 0·BUF 4
3rd·16:15
Puck Frozen - Goalie
CBJ 0·BUF 4
3rd·16:09
Zach Werenski Slap Shot Wide Right
·
CBJ 0·BUF 4
3rd·15:54
Kirill Marchenko shot blocked by Alex Tuch
·
CBJ 0·BUF 4
3rd·15:45
Zach Werenski Snap Shot Wide Right
·
CBJ 0·BUF 4
3rd·15:21
Ivan Provorov Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
CBJ 0·BUF 4
3rd·15:08
Mattias Samuelsson hit Adam Fantilli
·
CBJ 0·BUF 4
3rd·15:07
Adam Fantilli Wrist Shot saved by Colten Ellis
·
CBJ 0·BUF 4

Betting line

BUF -1.5·O/U 6.5·CBJ -118/BUF -102

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

uffalo Sabres held off Columbus Blue Jackets, 5–0.

BUF -1.5 cashed (won by 5). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Conor Garland · CBJ12:420.6061.8%74.2%12:42 TOI · 0.60 iXG · 61.8% CF · 74.2% xGF
Josh Doan · BUF14:480.5468.2%76.9%14:48 TOI · 0.54 iXG · 68.2% CF · 76.9% xGF
Adam Fantilli · CBJ21:360.5178.9%87.0%21:36 TOI · 0.51 iXG · 78.9% CF · 87.0% xGF
Mason Marchment · CBJ18:000.5080.6%80.7%18:00 TOI · 0.50 iXG · 80.6% CF · 80.7% xGF
Zach Werenski · CBJ28:480.2869.8%68.8%28:48 TOI · 0.28 iXG · 69.8% CF · 68.8% xGF
Kent Johnson · CBJ9:240.2870.0%62.3%9:24 TOI · 0.28 iXG · 70.0% CF · 62.3% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Colten Ellis · BUF37–01.000+3.3237–0 · 1.000 SV% · +3.32 GSAx
Jet Greaves · CBJ19–4.826-1.9619–4 · .826 SV% · -1.96 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

65.2%

ensemble · BUF favored

Elo Static
65.2%
P(BUF win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
65.2%
P(BUF win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
65.2%
P(BUF win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-102

Close price

-102

Open no-vig

48.3%

Close no-vig

48.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CBJ at BUF?: The model favors BUF, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Columbus Blue JacketsBuffalo Sabres

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