MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1HOU

HOU

33-39

28-43

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri

17,881 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

KC spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.5

KC no-vig %

53.2%

open 54.2% · -1.0

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = KC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

48.5%

ensemble · HOU favored

Elo Static
49.3%
P(KC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
51.4%
P(KC win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
49.5%
P(KC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.94 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.02

CLV pp

Open price

+109

Close price

+104

Open no-vig

45.8%

Close no-vig

46.8%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+8.3pp

best edge · HOU · DraftKings

HOU

★ best

+104DraftKings

edge +8.3pp · implied 46.9%

no live price

Book	HOU	KC	Best edge
DraftKings	+104★	-125	+8.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

KC vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

Peter LambertHOU
5.3± 2.5low
Spencer ArrighettiHOU
5.2± 2.5low
Noah CameronKC
5.0± 3.0low

Hits

Kameron MisnerKC
1.5± 0.8low
Yordan AlvarezHOU
1.3± 1.0high
Jac CaglianoneKC
1.3± 1.4high

Total bases

Yordan AlvarezHOU
2.4± 2.6high
Christian WalkerHOU
2.0± 1.5high
Jac CaglianoneKC
2.0± 2.8high

RBIs

Yordan AlvarezHOU
0.9± 2.2high
Carter JensenKC
0.8± 1.1high
Kameron MisnerKC
0.8± 1.3low

Earned runs

Mike BurrowsHOU
3.6± 2.6low
Michael WachaKC
2.9± 2.7low
Tatsuya ImaiHOU
2.8± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

HOU

league avg

.729

OPS

◀

.717

.694

.318

OBP

.319

.316

4.56

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.00

4.91

Team ERA

4.18

▶

4.44

1.44

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.38

8.5

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

HOU wins

HOU 8 · KC 7 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked HOU +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
HOU	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	2	1	8
KC	0	1	2	1	0	3	0	0	0	7

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. PenaSS	.279	5	0	1	0	0	0	0
Y. AlvarezDH	.327	5	1	3	0	0	0	0
C. Walker1B	.247	5	1	1	3	1	0	1
I. Paredes3B	.229	4	1	0	0	0	0	1
J. Altuve2B	.238	4	1	2	2	1	0	1
C. SmithRF	.216	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. MeyersCF	.221	4	2	2	1	1	0	0
B. MatthewsCF	.216	4	1	2	2	1	0	0
C. VazquezC	.224	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. LoperfidoLF	.246	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
C. PriceC	.200	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		38	8	11	8	4	1	5

Player

AVG

RBI

.279

.327

.247

.229

.238

.216

.221

.216

.224

.246

.200

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
M. BurrowsSP	5.0	7	5	4	2	5	92
E. De Los SantosRP	0.1	2	2	2	1	0	16
A. SantaRP	1.2	1	0	0	0	0	15
B. KingRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	17
B. AbreuRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	8
Team	9.0	11	7	6	3	6	148

Player

5.0

0.1

1.2

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

148

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
C. JensenC	.220	5	1	2	3	0	0	0
B. Witt Jr.SS	.284	5	1	3	0	0	0	0
V. Pasquantino1B	.224	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
M. Garcia3B	.260	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. CaglianoneRF	.270	2	1	0	0	0	2	0
S. PerezC	.206	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
M. Massey2B	.270	3	1	2	1	0	0	0
L. ThomasCF	.229	3	2	1	1	1	1	1
K. MisnerCF	.444	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
I. CollinsLF	.215	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. Loftin2B	.221	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		36	7	11	6	1	3	6

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
N. CameronSP	4.1	7	4	4	0	1	86
J. SchreiberRP	1.2	2	1	1	0	3	28
D. Lynch IVRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13
M. StrahmRP	0.1	1	2	2	0	0	8
A. LangeRP	1.2	1	1	1	1	1	31
Team	9.0	11	8	8	1	5	166

Team

HOU

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

KC vs HOU.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

KC vs HOU.

3 sub-models, blended.