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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2KC
KC

KC

20-27

2
0
STL

STL

27-19

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri
38,051 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

STL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.5 · -0.5

STL no-vig %

51.0%

open 51.1% · -0.1

+2.0+1.0STL SPREADO/U 10.0O/U 8.5TOTAL55.1%47.0%STL NO-VIG %May 16, 6 PMMay 17, 2 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = STL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

KC 2 · STL 0 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked STL +13pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
KC1001000002
STL0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+11.9pp

best edge · STL · DraftKings

KC

no live price

STL

★ best
-125DraftKings

edge +11.9pp · implied 53.1%

BookKCSTLBest edge
DraftKings+104-125★+11.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 3, 26sim 95
    261
    30(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 1, 26sim 95
    260
    30(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 31, 26sim 94
    32
    16(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 22, 26sim 94
    182
    5(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 19, 26sim 94
    211
    16(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 16, 26sim 93
    72
    24(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sun, May 17·Final/SeriesSTL wins series 2-1/VegasSTL -120

Recap · MLB

Kansas City Royals went into St. Louis Cardinals and beat them, 2–0.

KC -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 9.5 by 7.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

KC · top performer

KC
Salvador Perez

Salvador Perez

C

3.500OPS

2-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

STL · top performer

STL
Masyn Winn

Masyn Winn

SS

1.000OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Kansas City Royals at St. Louis Cardinals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
KC20-27
2
0
STL27-19
KC20-27·STL27-19
KC

KC

20-27

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
1-55110000
SPRINT27.765
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
0-44000000
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
1-44010001
SPRINT25.411
S. PerezS. Perez★C
2-22122110
SPRINT241
C. JensenC. Jensen★C
1-44010002
SPRINT27.457
I. CollinsI. Collins★LF
1-44010002
L. ThomasL. Thomas★CF
0-33000012
M. MasseyM. Massey★2B
1-33010001
K. IsbelK. Isbel★CF
2-44020001
SPRINT26.941
Team9-3333292129
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. KolekS. Kolek★SP
6.1400130
D. Lynch IVD. Lynch IVRP
1.2100010
L. ErcegL. ErcegRP
1.0000100
Team9.0500240
STL

STL

27-19

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WetherholtJ. Wetherholt★2B
0-33000011
I. HerreraI. Herrera★DH
1-44010000
SPRINT25.513
A. BurlesonA. Burleson★1B
1-44010000
SPRINT25.513
J. WalkerJ. Walker★RF
0-44000000
N. GormanN. Gorman★3B
1-33010011
SPRINT257
M. WinnM. Winn★SS
1-22010000
SPRINT2872
N. ChurchN. Church★LF
0-44000001
T. SaggeseT. Saggese★LF
1-33010000
SPRINT27.354
V. Scott IIV. Scott II★CF
0-22000000
C. PrietoC. Prieto3B
0-11000000
J. FerminJ. FerminLF
0-11000001
Team5-3131050024
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
A. PallanteA. Pallante★SP
6.2821071
M. SvansonM. SvansonRP
1.0000100
J. BruihlJ. BruihlRP
0.1100110
M. PushardM. PushardRP
1.0000010
Team9.0921291

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

KC

  • S. Kolek
    82 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      29%·94.2 mph·6% whiff
    • SI
      24%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      13%·90.1 mph·14% whiff
    • SL
      13%·85.0 mph·22% whiff
    • ST
      12%·79.2 mph·17% whiff
    • CH
      7%·86.8 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Erceg
    22 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      32%·97.3 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      27%·85.8 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      23%·97.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      18%·90.0 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Lynch IV
    21 pitches·24% CSW
    • SI
      33%·95.2 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      29%·95.3 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      19%·85.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      19%·87.3 mph·0% whiff

STL

  • A. Pallante
    99 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      30%·95.7 mph·11% whiff
    • SL
      30%·88.8 mph·31% whiff
    • KC
      23%·78.4 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      13%·96.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      3%·90.5 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Svanson
    15 pitches·20% CSW
    • ST
      47%·87.4 mph·33% whiff
    • SI
      33%·97.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      20%·91.4 mph·50% whiff
  • J. Bruihl
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      50%·89.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      29%·77.1 mph·50% whiff
    • CH
      14%·80.6 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      7%·91.5 mph·— whiff
  • M. Pushard
    9 pitches·22% CSW
    • FF
      44%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      22%·84.5 mph·100% whiff
    • CU
      11%·82.6 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      11%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      11%·89.1 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

5

2

Runs

0

0

Errors

1

Current series

STL wins series 2-1

May 16KCKC4@STLSTL5
May 16KCKC2@STLSTL4
May 17KCKC2@STLSTL0today

Season series

STL leads series 2-1

May 16KCKC4@STLSTL5
May 16KCKC2@STLSTL4
May 17KCKC2@STLSTL0today
Jun 18STLSTL@KCKCupcoming
Jun 20STLSTL@KCKCupcoming
Jun 21STLSTL@KCKCupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

KC -1.5

Total

9.5

High-scoring · +1.0 vs avg

↘0.5pt· 6.5h

Moneyline

KCKC+10050%
STLSTL-12055%

↗1· 6.5h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet KC -1.5↗SpreadBet KC -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

9.5

-0.5 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowKC ↔ STL

Biggest swing: 12pp · Top 4th Inning

KCKC
S. Perez

S. Perez

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-2 · 1 HR · 3.500 OPS

S. Kolek

S. Kolek

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.1 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

STLSTL
M. Winn

M. Winn

SS

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.000 OPS

A. Pallante

A. Pallante

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.2 IP · 7 K · 1 ER · 8 H

How it ended

KC beat STL 2-0.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

STL vs KC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
KCTop 3rd Inning · 1-0
+7pp→ 64% WP

Isbel · doubled to left.

KCTop 4th Inning · 2-0
+12pp→ 70% WP

Perez · homered to left (393 feet).

KCBottom 5th Inning · 2-0
+10pp→ 74% WP

Scott II · grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Saggese out at second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
KC1001000002
STL0000000000

Period scoring

KC won 2 · STL won 0

1
0

Inn 1

Perez 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

1
0

Inn 4

Perez 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

KC
STL

Play-by-play · 527 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    KC 2·STL 0

  2. B9

    · ·

    KC 2·STL 0

  3. B9

    Church grounded out to shortstop.

    · ·

    KC 2·STL 0

    −4pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 10 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    KC 2·STL 0

  5. B9

    Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    KC 2·STL 0

  6. B9

    Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    KC 2·STL 0

  7. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    KC 2·STL 0

  8. B9

    Gorman to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    KC 2·STL 0

  9. B9

    Gorman to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    KC 2·STL 0

  10. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    · ·

    KC 2·STL 0

  11. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    KC 2·STL 0

  12. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    KC 2·STL 0

  13. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    KC 2·STL 0

  14. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    KC 2·STL 0

  15. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    KC 2·STL 0

  16. B9

    Lucas Erceg pitches to Nathan Church

    · ·

    KC 2·STL 0

  17. B9

    · ·

    KC 2·STL 0

  18. B9

    Prieto lined out to right.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    KC 2·STL 0

    −6pp

  19. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    KC 2·STL 0

  20. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    KC 2·STL 0

  21. B9

    Lucas Erceg pitches to Cesar Prieto

    · ·

    KC 2·STL 0

  22. B9

    ·

    KC 2·STL 0

  23. B9

    Gorman walked.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    KC 2·STL 0

    +6pp

  24. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball 4

    ·

    KC 2·STL 0

  25. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    KC 2·STL 0

  26. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    KC 2·STL 0

  27. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    KC 2·STL 0

  28. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    KC 2·STL 0

  29. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    KC 2·STL 0

  30. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    KC 2·STL 0

Team stats

KC

Away

Stat

STL

Home

2

Runs

0

9

Hits

5

0

Errors

1

13

TB

5

1

HR

0

2

BB

2

9

K

4

17

LOB

13

Betting line

KC -1.5·O/U 9.5·KC +100/STL -120

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.09

CLV pp

Open price

-115

Close price

-120

Open no-vig

51.1%

Close no-vig

52.2%

Market came to the model · Graded: miss

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • Jordan WalkerSTL · RF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Lane ThomasKC · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Nathan ChurchSTL · LF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Masyn WinnSTL · SS
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

STL vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Michael WachaKC
    5.4± 2.1low
  • Seth LugoKC
    5.0± 2.1low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    5.0± 3.7low

Hits

  • Bryan TorresSTL
    1.2± 1.1low
  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Alec BurlesonSTL
    1.0± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Bryan TorresSTL
    2.2± 2.6low
  • Ivan HerreraSTL
    1.9± 1.9high
  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    1.8± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    0.6± 1.2low
  • Ivan HerreraSTL
    0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    2.8± 2.1low
  • Noah CameronKC
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Seth LugoKC
    2.6± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.9%

ensemble · STL favored

  • Elo Static

    63.0%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    62.2%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    63.4%

    P(STL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.50 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.