Starter edge
3.46 ERA
Foster Griffin vs Michael Wacha - 3.58 ERA
Griffin owns the sharper run-prevention profile, giving WSH cleaner opening script tonight.
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Kansas City Royals at Washington Nationals
KC
KC
29-44
PregameTue, 6:45 PM EDT
WSH
WSH
38-35
Probable starters
The mound matchup
Combined ERA 7.04
M. Wacha
4-5 · 3.58 ERA
vs
F. Griffin
7-2 · 3.46 ERA
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketNationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia
Line movement
200 snapshots
WSH spread
-1.5
open +1.5 · -3.0
Total
O/U 8.5
open O/U 8.5
WSH no-vig %
54.1%
open 53.2% · +0.9
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = WSH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Michael Wacha
SP · #52
4-5
W-L
3.58
ERA
1.16
WHIP
69
K
88.0
IP
Last 3 starts
vsTEXL(4-5)7.0 IP4 ER2 K
@MINL(4-4)5.2 IP4 ER2 K
@TEXL(4-3)5.0 IP6 ER5 K
Home starter
Foster Griffin
SP · #22
7-2
W-L
3.46
ERA
1.09
WHIP
74
K
78.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@SF-6.0 IP1 ER5 K
@ARIW(7-2)5.0 IP1 ER4 K
vsSD-5.0 IP3 ER5 K
Vegas line
Spread-1.5
TotalO/U 8.5
Money+119 / -143
Model edge
Win prob41% / 59%
LeanHome · 9pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesWSH leads series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
Place a bet
Take WSH on the model side.
Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.
Model side · moneyline
21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.
Projected lineups
Top of the order, top of mind.
Posted by ESPN ~30 minutes before first pitch.
KC
- 1.L. ThomasRF
- 2.B. Witt Jr.SS
- 3.J. Caglianone1B
- 4.M. Garcia3B
- 5.S. MarteDH
- 6.S. PerezC
- 7.N. Loftin2B
- 8.T. TolbertLF
- 9.K. MisnerCF
WSH
- 1.J. WoodRF
- 2.L. Garcia Jr.1B
- 3.C. Mead3B
- 4.C. AbramsSS
- 5.D. CrewsLF
- 6.D. LileDH
- 7.J. YoungCF
- 8.D. MillasC
- 9.N. Nunez2B
Scouting report · pre-game
WSH vs KC.
WSH enters on a 3-game win streak; KC is 4-6 over its last 10.
59.3%
model · WSH win prob
Recent form
- WSH7–3+2.7
- KC4–6-0.5
Situational
- WSH1d restB2B
- KC1d restB2B
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. WSH has 0 straight road games; KC has 1.
Model angle
Weather and park add about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+0.1pp
Players to watch
- James WoodWSH2.6total bases · ±2.3
James Wood · 2.6 TB · last-10 2.9 vs season 2.1.
- Jac CaglianoneKC2.0total bases · ±2.8
Jac Caglianone · 2 TB · last-10 2.4 vs season 1.5.
- Brad LordWSH2.0strikeouts · ±0.7
Brad Lord · 2 K · last-10 2.1 vs season 1.8.
Head-to-head · 1-0 · last 1
WSH is 1-0 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-06-15KC @ WSH3–7
Line move
open -126→-131toward WSH
The market has moved 1pp toward the home side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
59.8%
ensemble · WSH favored
Elo Static
58.4%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
58.6%
P(WSH win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
59.3%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.39 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
97% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
WSH vs KC.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
127
projections · 90 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Cade CavalliWSH5.9± 3.5medium
- Foster GriffinWSH5.4± 2.7low
- Noah CameronKC5.0± 3.0low
Hits
- Kameron MisnerKC1.5± 0.8low
- Jac CaglianoneKC1.3± 1.4high
- James WoodWSH1.3± 1.0high
Total bases
- James WoodWSH2.6± 2.3high
- Jac CaglianoneKC2.0± 2.8high
- Luis Garcia Jr.WSH2.0± 2.5high
RBIs
- Luis Garcia Jr.WSH1.1± 1.8high
- Carter JensenKC0.8± 1.1high
- Kameron MisnerKC0.8± 1.3low
Earned runs
- Michael WachaKC2.9± 2.7low
- Zack LittellWSH2.6± 2.6low
- Noah CameronKC2.5± 2.3low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
KC
league avg
WSH
.693
OPS
.717
▶.745
.316
OBP
.319
▶.323
3.99
Runs / G
4.50
▶5.47
4.48
Team ERA
◀
4.18
4.64
1.38
WHIP
1.31
1.38
8.1
K / 9
◀
8.5
7.7
The One modelEdge
Tue, Jun 16KC
Royals
31-46
vs59.3%WSH
WSH★
Nationals
41-40
KC 40.7%win prob59.3% WSH
WSH 1494 · KC 1458Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
