MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Live read

Jensen scored on error, Witt Jr. safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Kreidler, Witt Jr. safe at second on error. → win prob 43→61% KC

RAIN DELAY, BOTTOM 6TH+1KC

24-38

MIN

29-34

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 981 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

MLB · At bat

Bottom 60-00 outs

Pitcher· KC

S. Lugo

5.0 IP, 4 K, 5 ER

Batter· MIN

T. Larnach

1-2

LastSeth Lugo pitches to Trevor Larnach

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 15 players in cohort

Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
SPRINT30.399+
Byron BuxtonMIN · CF
SPRINT29.597
Luke KeaschallMIN · 2B
SPRINT28.688
Nick LoftinKC · 2B
SPRINT2872

Live · model leanRain Delay, Bottom 6thPolls every 30s

53.3%

KC wins · current

Pre-game: 56.5% MIN

KC 6 · 5 MIN

KC +1

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 6

away leadsMIN leads

Key moments · live

newest first

ClutchKCTop 6th Inning · 5-5
+24pp→ 43% WP
Jensen · doubled to left, Collins scored and Isbel scored, Jensen to third.
SwingMINBottom 5th Inning · 3-5
+10pp→ 82% WP
Clemens · homered to right (379 feet).
SwingMINBottom 4th Inning · 3-4
+14pp→ 71% WP
Kreidler · tripled to center, Larnach scored.
ClutchKCTop 4th Inning · 3-3
+14pp→ 46% WP
Massey · homered to right (360 feet).
Lead flipMINBottom 2nd Inning · 2-2
+13pp→ 60% WP
Caratini · doubled to center, Keaschall scored.

Target Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 7.62

S. Lugo

2-4 · 3.55 ERA

A. Morris

1-2 · 4.07 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

MIN spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

MIN no-vig %

48.3%

open 48.3%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.4%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
56.6%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
56.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
57.0%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.41 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

18.2%

-38.4ppvs pre-game · KC favored

Leverage

±7.4

pp · next play

medium · 49/100

1-point game · home ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.65

CLV pp

Open price

-102

Close price

-105

Open no-vig

48.3%

Close no-vig

48.9%

Market came to the model

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+5.3pp

best edge · MIN · DraftKings

no live price

MIN

★ best

-120DraftKings

edge +5.3pp · implied 51.2%

Book	KC	MIN	Best edge
DraftKings	-108	-120★	+5.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

MIN vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 87 high confidence

Strikeouts

Joe RyanMIN
6.2± 3.4low
Taj BradleyMIN
6.2± 3.0low
Zebby MatthewsMIN
6.0± 1.1low

Hits

Maikel GarciaKC
1.1± 0.8high
Luke KeaschallMIN
1.1± 0.8high
Michael MasseyKC
1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.8± 1.6high
Kody ClemensMIN
1.8± 2.2high
Brooks LeeMIN
1.7± 2.6high

RBIs

Tristan GrayMIN
0.9± 1.7high
Brooks LeeMIN
0.8± 1.2high
Carter JensenKC
0.6± 1.2high

Earned runs

Zebby MatthewsMIN
3.0± 4.0low
Connor PrielippMIN
2.9± 2.5low
Noah CameronKC
2.6± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelLean

● Live

Royals

26-40

vs56.5%MIN

MIN★

Twins

37-36

KC 43.5%win prob56.5% MIN

MIN 1482 · KC 1460Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
C. Jensen★C	1-4	4	1	1	2	0	0	1	34.5
SPRINT27.457
B. Witt Jr.★SS	1-4	4	1	1	0	0	0	1	17.6
SPRINT30.399+
V. Pasquantino★1B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	1	2.7
S. Perez★C	0-2	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	6.8
J. Caglianone★RF	1-3	3	0	1	0	0	0	0	7.5
I. Collins★LF	0-2	2	1	0	0	0	1	0	19.2
M. Massey★2B	2-3	3	1	2	1	1	0	0	13.8
SPRINT26.838
N. Loftin★2B	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	6.7
SPRINT2872
K. Isbel★CF	2-3	3	1	2	0	0	0	0	23.1
SPRINT26.941
Team	8-27	27	6	8	4	1	2	3	—

Batting

Analytics

Player

C. Jensen★C

1-4

34.5

B. Witt Jr.★SS

1-4

17.6

V. Pasquantino★1B

0-3

2.7

S. Perez★C

0-2

6.8

J. Caglianone★RF

1-3

7.5

I. Collins★LF

0-2

19.2

M. Massey★2B

2-3

13.8

N. Loftin★2B

1-3

6.7

K. Isbel★CF

2-3

23.1

Team

8-27

—

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Pitching	Analytics
S. Lugo★SP	5.0	6	5	5	1	4	3	36.1
Team	5.0	6	5	5	1	4	3	—

Pitching

Analytics

Player

S. Lugo★SP

5.0

36.1

Team

5.0

—

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
B. Buxton★CF	1-3	3	1	1	1	1	0	0	5.8
SPRINT29.597
B. Lee★SS	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	5.4
K. ClemensMulti-HR game★1B	2-3	3	2	2	2	2	0	0	20.3
SPRINT27.457
A. Martin★RF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.8
T. Larnach★LF	1-2	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	9.8
SPRINT26.632
L. Keaschall★2B	0-1	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	7.8
V. Caratini★C	1-2	2	0	1	1	0	0	0	3.3
SPRINT24.22
R. Kreidler★CF	1-2	2	0	1	1	0	0	0	9.0
J. Outman★CF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	5.5
Team	6-21	21	5	6	5	3	1	4	—

Batting

Analytics

Player