Starter edge
3.04 ERA
Brandon Young vs Logan Gilbert - 3.62 ERA
Young owns the sharper run-prevention profile, giving BAL cleaner opening script tonight.
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Baltimore Orioles at Seattle Mariners
BAL
BAL
34-39
PregameTue, 9:40 PM EDT
SEA
SEA
37-36
Probable starters
The mound matchup
Combined ERA 6.66
B. Young
5-1 · 3.04 ERA
vs
L. Gilbert
4-4 · 3.62 ERA
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
3 signals · model + marketT-Mobile Park · Seattle, Washington
Line movement
200 snapshots
SEA spread
-1.5
open -1.5
Total
O/U 7.5
open O/U 7.5
SEA no-vig %
58.3%
open 58.3%
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = SEA favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Brandon Young
SP · #63
5-1
W-L
3.04
ERA
1.24
WHIP
42
K
56.1
IP
Last 3 starts
vsSEAW(5-1)7.0 IP0 ER5 K
@TORW(4-1)6.1 IP3 ER4 K
vsTOR-6.2 IP2 ER7 K
Home starter
Logan Gilbert
SP · #36
4-4
W-L
3.62
ERA
1.08
WHIP
82
K
79.2
IP
Last 3 starts
@BAL-6.0 IP1 ER5 K
vsNYMW(4-4)5.1 IP3 ER8 K
@ATHW(3-4)6.0 IP0 ER6 K
Vegas line
Spread-1.5
TotalO/U 7.5
Money+128 / -154
Model edge
Win prob39% / 61%
LeanHome · 11pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesSeries tied 2-2
TypeRegular Season Series
Place a bet
Take SEA on the model side.
Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.
Model side · moneyline
21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.
Projected lineups
Top of the order, top of mind.
Posted by ESPN ~30 minutes before first pitch.
BAL
- 1.T. WardLF
- 2.G. HendersonSS
- 3.A. RutschmanC
- 4.P. Alonso1B
- 5.S. BasalloDH
- 6.L. TaverasRF
- 7.C. CowserCF
- 8.B. Alexander3B
- 9.J. Holliday2B
SEA
- 1.J.P. Crawford3B
- 2.C. RaleighC
- 3.J. RodriguezCF
- 4.D. CanzoneRF
- 5.R. RefsnyderDH
- 6.C. Young2B
- 7.V. RoblesLF
- 8.C. EmersonSS
- 9.M. Mastrobuoni1B
Scouting report · pre-game
SEA vs BAL.
SEA is 4-6 recently; BAL is 4-6.
61.3%
model · SEA win prob
Recent form
- SEA4–6-1.0
- BAL4–6+0.4
Situational
- SEA2d rest
- BAL2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. SEA has 10 straight road games; BAL has 0.
Model angle
Weather and park remove about 0.4 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.4pp
Players to watch
- Pete AlonsoBAL2.2total bases · ±2.4
Pete Alonso · 2.2 TB · last-10 2.4 vs season 1.8.
- Colt EmersonSEA2.1total bases · ±1.8
Colt Emerson · 2.1 TB · last-10 2.2 vs season 1.9.
- J.P. CrawfordSEA2.1total bases · ±2.9
J.P. Crawford · 2.1 TB · last-10 2.6 vs season 1.4.
Head-to-head · 2-2 · last 4
SEA is 2-2 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-06-08SEA @ BAL6–3
- 2026-06-09SEA @ BAL6–5
- 2026-06-10SEA @ BAL2–7
- 2026-06-11SEA @ BAL5–7
Line move
open -156→-156flat
The home moneyline has stayed mostly flat.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
60.9%
ensemble · SEA favored
Elo Static
60.0%
P(SEA win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
59.3%
P(SEA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
59.9%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.31 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
98% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
SEA vs BAL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
128
projections · 87 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Bryce MillerSEA6.0± 3.0low
- Bryan WooSEA5.8± 4.0low
- Logan GilbertSEA5.8± 2.5low
Hits
- Blaze AlexanderBAL1.2± 1.0high
- Cole YoungSEA1.2± 0.8high
- Adley RutschmanBAL1.1± 1.3high
Total bases
- Pete AlonsoBAL2.2± 2.4high
- Colt EmersonSEA2.1± 1.8high
- J.P. CrawfordSEA2.1± 2.9high
RBIs
- Adley RutschmanBAL1.0± 1.6high
- Pete AlonsoBAL0.9± 0.9high
- Colt EmersonSEA0.7± 0.8high
Earned runs
- Trevor RogersBAL3.7± 2.4low
- Bryan WooSEA3.1± 3.9low
- Trey GibsonBAL2.8± 2.8low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
BAL
league avg
SEA
.728
OPS
◀
.717
.713
.324
OBP
◀
.319
.316
4.70
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.26
4.59
Team ERA
4.18
▶3.69
1.40
WHIP
1.31
▶1.20
7.8
K / 9
8.5
▶8.7
The One modelEdge
Tue, Jun 16BAL
Orioles
38-49
vs61.2%SEA
SEA★
Mariners
44-44
BAL 38.8%win prob61.2% SEA
SEA 1513 · BAL 1467Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
