Recent form
7-3
IND +4.2 vs TOR -3.1 margin
IND brings the hotter last-ten margin into this matchup tonight with balance.
Toronto Tempo at Indiana Fever
TOR
TOR
7-7
PregameTue, 7:00 PM EDT
IND
IND
8-5
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
3 signals · model + marketPreview · WNBA
oronto Tempo visit Indiana Fever Tuesday at 6/16 - 7:00 PM EDT. TOR is 4-3 in their last 7. IND arrives on a 3-game win streak (4-3 in their last 7).
Vegas opened IND as a 8.5-point favorite with the total at 178.5. IND's moneyline implies a 80% break-even, TOR the inverse.
For bettors: the IND side carries the favorite-tax, the dog gets the points and a plus-money payout. The 178.5 total reads high-scoring vs the league average.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Updated 0s ago
Season series
Series starts 6/16
Jun 16TOR@INDtoday
TOR@INDtodayAug 18IND@TORupcoming
IND@TORupcomingSep 18IND@TORupcoming
IND@TORupcomingVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
IND -8.5
Between 7 and 10
1.0pt· 6.1h
Total
178.5
High-scoring · +13.5 vs avg
1.0pt· 6.1h
Moneyline
TOR+31024%IND-39580%50· 6.1h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
8.5
+1.0 since open
Total
178.5
+1.0 since open
Scouting report
TOR @ IND
StorylineIND on a 3-game roll.
Rest going in
IND +1 day
TORStandard
1 day
last game Jun 14
INDStandard
2 days
last game Jun 13
Model edge vs market
Pass · split signalSpread
Market
IND -8.5
Model
TOR -0.4
Edge
split
Total
Market
178.5
Model
On the roadmap
Edge
—
Moneyline
Market
IND -395
Model
TOR
Edge
fading market
Model spread derived from 21-day power-rank delta · not a true point-spread model. Total + ML model wires roadmap. Bet responsibly · 21+
Tale of the tape
TORmetricIND
7-7
Record
8-5
#4
Conf rank
#3
-1.1
Pt diff
+3.5
L2
Streak
W3
5-5
Last 10
7-3
55.8
Power score
55.4
#7
Power rank
#8
Composite signals from ESPN standings + 21-day power rolling. NBA pace / ORtg / DRtg from ESPN core team-stats; NFL yards-per-game from nflverse aggregation. Park factors, weather, KenPom-class metrics still on the roadmap.
Team stats
TOR
Away
Stat
IND
Home
43
FG %
45
Betting line
IND -8.5·O/U 178.5·TOR +310/IND -395
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Scouting report · pre-game
IND vs TOR.
IND enters on a 3-game win streak; TOR is 5-5 over its last 10.
68.5%
model · IND win prob
Recent form
- IND7–3+4.2
- TOR5–5-3.1
Situational
- IND3d rest
- TOR2d rest
- +1.0d differential
IND has 1 more rest day. IND has 1 straight road games; TOR has 0.
Model angle
No actionable edge surfaced.
Line move
open -345→-395toward IND
The market has moved 2.3pp toward the home side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
69.3%
ensemble · IND favored
Elo Static
71.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
71.5%
P(IND win)
32%
weight
Pace Efficiency
72.5%
P(IND win)
35%
weight
Disagreement
0.63 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
96% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
-2.18
CLV pp · steam
Open price
+275
Close price
+310
Open no-vig
25.6%
Close no-vig
23.4%
Market faded the model hard
Line shopping · 1 book
Where to bet this game.
Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.
+8.1pp
best edge · TOR · DraftKings
TOR
★ best+310DraftKings
edge +8.1pp · implied 23.4%
IND
no live price
| Book | TOR | IND | Best edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +310★ | -395 | +8.1 |
Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.
Player projections
IND vs TOR.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
115
projections · 0 high confidence
Points
- Caitlin ClarkIND19.6± 9.7medium
- Brittney SykesTOR19.5± 11.3medium
- Kelsey MitchellIND18.9± 3.7medium
Rebounds
- Aliyah BostonIND8.5± 4.6low
- Nyara SaballyTOR5.2± 2.2low
- Lexie HullIND4.5± 3.2low
Assists
- Caitlin ClarkIND7.5± 2.4medium
- Marina MabreyTOR3.7± 3.3low
- Julie AllemandTOR3.6± 2.0low
Blocks
- Aliyah BostonIND1.1± 1.7low
- Nyara SaballyTOR1.1± 1.0low
- Caitlin ClarkIND0.7± 0.7medium
Steals
- Julie AllemandTOR1.7± 1.3low
- Laura JuskaiteTOR1.2± 1.6medium
- Nyara SaballyTOR1.2± 1.4low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
wehoop
TOR
league avg
IND
43.4%
FG%
44.4
▶45.0%
32.9%
3PT %
33.0
32.6%
88.6
PPG
85.3
▶89.9
18.5
Assists / G
18.0
▶21.0
12.7
Turnovers / G
◀
13.0
15.0