Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at IND?

The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+22IND

TOR

7-8

91113

IND

9-5

WNBATue, Jun 16FinalSeriesIND leads series 1-0VegasIND -8.5

TOR · top performer

Laura Juskaite

F · #2

16.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

IND · top performer

Sophie Cunningham

G · #8

22.3Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowTOR ↔ IND

Biggest swing: 8pp · 3rd Quarter · 8:17

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
I. HarrisonF · #21	26	11	4-12	2-5	1-2	-9	8	2
L. JuskaiteF · #2	25	19	8-11	2-3	1-2	-8	2	4
B. SykesG · #20	19	11	5-8	1-1	0-1	+6	2	3
M. MabreyG · #3	31	18	7-16	2-5	2-3	-14	1	7
J. AllemandG · #22	11	0	0-2	0-2	—	-3	0	1
Bench
M. CondeF · #10	31	12	4-8	3-4	1-1	-22	4	5
T. KeyF · #7	11	2	1-3	0-1	—	-11	2	0
T. FagbenleC · #14	18	3	1-4	—	1-2	-16	5	1
K. NurseG · #11	15	10	3-4	0-1	4-4	-16	1	0
T. PouyeG · #32	13	5	1-7	1-3	2-4	-17	2	2
Team		91	34-75	11-25	12-19		27	25
DNP: N. Sabally, K. Rice

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
M. BillingsF · #25	20	5	1-5	0-1	3-4	+10	7	0
A. BostonC · #7	26	18	7-11	1-2	3-3	+6	11	4
K. MitchellG · #0	32	27	9-11	3-4	6-6	+17	1	2
L. HullG · #10	20	6	3-6	0-3	—	+2	4	0
C. ClarkG · #22	32	21	5-15	1-8	10-14	+14	5	14
Bench
M. Hines-AllenF · #2	7	0	0-1	—	—	+5	2	2
M. TimpsonF · #21	23	2	1-3	—	—	+17	6	0
G. VanSlootenF · #14	1	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
D. DantasC · #12	2	4	0-1	0-1	4-4	-2	1	0
S. CunninghamG · #8	24	24	8-11	6-7	2-2	+26	6	2
R. JohnsonG · #3	14	6	2-5	2-4	—	+15	0	1
Team		113	36-69	13-30	28-33		43	25
DNP: T. Harris

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

TOR

Away

Stat

IND

Home

34-75

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

36-69

FG %

11-25

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

13-30

12-19

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

28-33

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

IND leads series 1-0

Jun 16

TOR91@

IND113today

Aug 18

IND@

TORupcoming

Sep 18

IND@

TORupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

IND -8.5

Between 7 and 10

1.0pt· 6.1h

Total

180.5

High-scoring · +15.5 vs avg

1.0pt· 6.1h

Moneyline

TOR+32024%

IND-41080%

50· 6.1h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet IND -8.5↗SpreadBet IND -8.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

8.5

+1.0 since open

Total

180.5

+1.0 since open

How it ended

IND beat TOR 113-91. S. Cunningham led with 24 PTS, 6 REB, 2 AST. IND outscored the other side 28-18 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

IND vs TOR

Starters vs bench

production by unit

TORstarters 65% of pts

Starters(5)

59 PTS · 13 REB · 17 AST

GS 45

Bench(5)

32 PTS · 14 REB · 8 AST

GS 18

INDstarters 68% of pts

Starters(5)

77 PTS · 28 REB · 20 AST

GS 64

Bench(6)

36 PTS · 15 REB · 5 AST

GS 32

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

IND2nd Quarter · 3:19 · 40-42

+7pp→ 78% WP

Makayla Timpson · blocks Brittney Sykes 's 3-foot driving layup

IND2nd Quarter · 1:27 · 45-49

+7pp→ 82% WP

Sophie Cunningham · makes 25-foot three pointer (Caitlin Clark assists)

TOR3rd Quarter · 8:17 · 57-55

+8pp→ 36% WP

Marina Mabrey · makes 29-foot three point jumper (Maria Conde assists)

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
TOR	20	30	23	18	91
IND	26	27	32	28	113

Period scoring

TOR won 1 · IND won 3

Sykes 6

Mitchell 9

Mabrey 11

Clark 9

Mabrey 7

Mitchell 12

Nurse 8

Clark 8

TOR

IND

Shooting comparison

TOR

IND

45%

34-75

52%

36-69

44%

11-25

3PT

43%

13-30

63%

12-19

85%

28-33

Play-by-play · 430 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
TOR 91·IND 113
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
TOR 91·IND 113
Q4·18.5
Makayla Timpson defensive rebound
TOR 91·IND 113
Q4·21.2
Tima Pouye misses two point shot
TOR 91·IND 113
Q4·28.6
Damiris Dantas makes free throw 2 of 2
TOR 91·IND 113
Q4·28.6
Damiris Dantas makes free throw 1 of 2
TOR 91·IND 112
Q4·28.6
Laura Juskaite shooting foul
TOR 91·IND 111
Q4·39.0
Kia Nurse makes free throw 2 of 2
TOR 91·IND 111
Q4·39.0
Kia Nurse makes free throw 1 of 2
TOR 90·IND 111
Q4·39.0
Makayla Timpson shooting foul
TOR 89·IND 111
Q4·57.9
Damiris Dantas makes free throw 2 of 2
TOR 89·IND 111
Q4·57.9
Grace VanSlooten enters the game for Sophie Cunningham
·
TOR 89·IND 110
Q4·57.9
Damiris Dantas makes free throw 1 of 2
TOR 89·IND 110
Q4·57.9
Teonni Key shooting foul
TOR 89·IND 109
Q4·1:10
Kia Nurse makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot
TOR 89·IND 109
Q4·1:27
Raven Johnson makes 30-foot three point jumper (Sophie Cunningham assists)
·
TOR 87·IND 109
Q4·1:28
Damiris Dantas offensive rebound
TOR 87·IND 106
Q4·1:31
Raven Johnson misses 14-foot pullup jump shot
TOR 87·IND 106
Q4·1:36
Fever Full timeout
TOR 87·IND 106
Q4·1:40
Kia Nurse makes running layup (Laura Juskaite assists)
·
TOR 87·IND 106
Q4·1:44
Laura Juskaite defensive rebound
TOR 85·IND 106
Q4·1:48
Damiris Dantas misses 24-foot three point jumper
TOR 85·IND 106
Q4·2:01
Laura Juskaite makes free throw 1 of 1
TOR 85·IND 106
Q4·2:01
Sophie Cunningham shooting foul
TOR 84·IND 106
Q4·2:01
Laura Juskaite makes 7-foot turnaround jump shot (Maria Conde assists)
·
TOR 84·IND 106
Q4·2:14
Makayla Timpson enters the game for Monique Billings
·
TOR 82·IND 106
Q4·2:14
Damiris Dantas enters the game for Caitlin Clark
·
TOR 82·IND 106
Q4·2:14
Tempo Full timeout
TOR 82·IND 106
Q4·2:17
Sophie Cunningham makes two point shot
TOR 82·IND 106
Q4·2:17
Sophie Cunningham offensive rebound
TOR 82·IND 104

Betting line

IND -8.5·O/U 180.5·TOR +320/IND -410

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

ndiana Fever held off Toronto Tempo, 113–91. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

IND -8.5 cashed (won by 22). Total cleared the 180.5 OVER by 23.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

TOR

IND

eFG%

shooting

52.7%

61.6%

TOV%

ball control

12.6%

16.1%

OREB%

offensive glass

13.2%

31.3%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

16.0%

40.6%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Caitlin ClarkIND · G
USG%.30497
Marina MabreyTOR · G
USG%.29496
Aliyah BostonIND · C
DRB%.28196
Brittney SykesTOR · G
USG%.29195
Kelsey MitchellIND · G
USG%.26287

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.5%

ensemble · IND favored

Elo Static
68.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
68.5%
P(IND win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
63.0%
P(IND win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

2.48 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

84% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-2.18

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+275

Close price

+310

Open no-vig

25.6%

Close no-vig

23.4%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in TOR at IND?: The model favors TOR, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+12.2pp

best edge · TOR · DraftKings

TOR

★ best

+300DraftKings

edge +12.2pp · implied 23.6%

IND

no live price

Book	TOR	IND	Best edge
DraftKings	+300★	-425	+12.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

IND vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 90 high confidence

Points

Kelsey MitchellIND
25.6± 3.6high
Caitlin ClarkIND
21.1± 10.9high
Marina MabreyTOR
20.8± 8.4high

Rebounds

Aneesah MorrowTOR
8.1± 5.0high
Aliyah BostonIND
7.2± 3.3high
Isabelle HarrisonTOR
6.8± 2.8medium

Assists

Caitlin ClarkIND
7.3± 2.4high
Julie AllemandTOR
6.6± 3.4high
Marina MabreyTOR
3.8± 1.6high

Blocks

Aliyah BostonIND
0.9± 1.0high
Makayla TimpsonIND
0.9± 1.4high
Nyara SaballyTOR
0.8± 1.3high

Steals

Kelsey MitchellIND
1.5± 1.4high
Julie AllemandTOR
1.4± 0.9high
Aliyah BostonIND
1.2± 1.2high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

On the call · WNBA

3 officials

Referee

Tiara Cruse

Referee

Angel Kent

Referee

Kelsey Reynolds

Per-official season stats (foul rate, strike-zone tendency) activate with the season-stats rollup. Bookmark the names for now.

Data via ESPN · wehoop