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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2BOS
BOS

BOS

20-27

3
1
KC

KC

20-28

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri
15,531 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

KC spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

KC no-vig %

49.6%

open 49.6%

+2.0-0.5KC SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.5TOTAL53.6%45.6%KC NO-VIG %May 17, 4 PMMay 18, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = KC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

BOS 3 · KC 1 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BOS +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BOS0000021003
KC0000001001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

54%Last 7 · 55-46
61%Last 30 · 318-205
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+10.7pp

best edge · BOS · DraftKings

BOS

★ best
-113DraftKings

edge +10.7pp · implied 49.8%

KC

no live price

BookBOSKCBest edge
DraftKings-113★-115+10.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Mon, May 18·Final/SeriesBOS wins series 3-0/VegasBOS -111

Recap · MLB

Boston Red Sox went into Kansas City Royals and beat them, 3–1.

BOS -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 9.0 by 5.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BOS · top performer

BOS
Willson Contreras

Willson Contreras

1B

1.250OPS

4-1

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

KC · top performer

KC
Jac Caglianone

Jac Caglianone

RF

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · Boston Red Sox at Kansas City Royals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BOS20-27
3
1
KC20-28
BOS20-27·KC20-28
BOS

BOS

20-27

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
0-22001021
SPRINT29.294
M. GasperM. Gasper★C
2-55120001
W. AbreuW. Abreu★RF
0-55000002
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★1B
1-44112100
SPRINT26.838
M. YoshidaM. Yoshida★DH
1-44010000
A. MonasterioA. Monasterio★SS
2-44020002
SPRINT2744
M. MayerM. Mayer★2B
1-44010001
C. WongC. Wong★C
1-44110001
SPRINT27.354
N. SogardN. Sogard★3B
1-33010010
Team9-3535393138
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. GrayS. Gray★SP
6.0511190
J. SlatenJ. SlatenRP
1.0000020
G. WhitlockG. WhitlockRP
1.0100010
A. ChapmanA. ChapmanRP
1.0000010
Team9.06111130
KC

KC

20-28

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
1-44010001
SPRINT27.765
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
1-44010002
SPRINT30.399+
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
0-44000002
S. PerezS. Perez★C
0-33000001
C. JensenC. Jensen★C
0-22100011
SPRINT27.457
J. CaglianoneJ. Caglianone★RF
2-44021000
SPRINT27.148
I. CollinsI. Collins★LF
0-44000003
M. MasseyM. Massey★2B
1-33010000
SPRINT26.838
K. IsbelK. Isbel★CF
1-33010002
S. MarteS. MarteRF
0-11000001
Team6-32321610113
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. LugoS. Lugo★SP
6.0522251
A. LangeA. LangeRP
1.0311010
J. SchreiberJ. SchreiberRP
1.0100020
S. CruzS. CruzRP
1.0000100
Team9.0933381

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BOS

  • S. Gray
    80 pitches·35% CSW
    • FC
      23%·89.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      23%·92.0 mph·22% whiff
    • ST
      21%·85.3 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      16%·80.7 mph·60% whiff
    • SI
      14%·92.8 mph·33% whiff
    • CH
      4%·84.8 mph·— whiff
  • J. Slaten
    17 pitches·35% CSW
    • FC
      47%·95.5 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      47%·97.7 mph·40% whiff
    • ST
      6%·88.5 mph·— whiff
  • A. Chapman
    14 pitches·36% CSW
    • SI
      57%·98.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      21%·87.2 mph·— whiff
    • FF
      14%·95.8 mph·100% whiff
    • FS
      7%·91.7 mph·— whiff
  • G. Whitlock
    12 pitches·25% CSW
    • SI
      92%·95.5 mph·14% whiff
    • CH
      8%·84.8 mph·— whiff

KC

  • S. Lugo
    93 pitches·29% CSW
    • SI
      32%·91.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      20%·92.2 mph·25% whiff
    • FC
      17%·89.4 mph·11% whiff
    • CH
      8%·84.0 mph·50% whiff
    • CU
      8%·77.9 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      8%·84.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      8%·80.8 mph·33% whiff
  • A. Lange
    15 pitches·33% CSW
    • SI
      40%·95.2 mph·67% whiff
    • CH
      27%·90.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      20%·86.2 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      13%·91.5 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Schreiber
    13 pitches·46% CSW
    • FF
      62%·93.6 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      31%·81.7 mph·67% whiff
    • FC
      8%·87.8 mph·— whiff
  • S. Cruz
    11 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      55%·99.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      45%·95.7 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

9

Hits

6

3

Runs

1

0

Errors

0

Current series

BOS wins series 3-0

May 18BOSBOS3@KCKC1today
May 19BOSBOS7@KCKC1
May 20BOSBOS4@KCKC3

Season series

BOS leads series 1-0

May 18BOSBOS3@KCKC1today
May 19BOSBOS7@KCKC1
May 20BOSBOS4@KCKC3
Sep 11KCKC@BOSBOSupcoming
Sep 12KCKC@BOSBOSupcoming
Sep 13KCKC@BOSBOSupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -1.5

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

BOSBOS-11153%
KCKC-10852%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

9.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBOS ↔ KC

Biggest swing: 27pp · Top 6th Inning

BOSBOS
W. Contreras

W. Contreras

1B

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.250 OPS

S. Gray

S. Gray

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 9 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

KCKC
J. Caglianone

J. Caglianone

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

S. Lugo

S. Lugo

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 5 K · 2 ER · 5 H · 2 BB

How it ended

BOS beat KC 3-1. Contreras's play in the top 6th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (27pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

KC vs BOS

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
KCBottom 2nd Inning · 0-0
+9pp→ 63% WP

Caglianone · doubled to right, Perez to third.

BOSTop 6th Inning · 2-0
+27pp→ 78% WP

Contreras · homered to left center (435 feet), Gasper scored.

KCBottom 7th Inning · 3-1
+14pp→ 30% WP

Caglianone · doubled to right, Jensen scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BOS0000021003
KC0000001001

Period scoring

BOS won 1 · KC won 0

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

2
0

Inn 6

Contreras 2

1
1

Inn 7

Duran 1

Caglianone 1

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

BOS
KC

Play-by-play · 520 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    BOS 3·KC 1

  2. B9

    ·

    BOS 3·KC 1

  3. B9

    Collins grounded out to third.

    ·

    BOS 3·KC 1

    −1pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BOS 3·KC 1

  5. B9

    Aroldis Chapman pitches to Isaac Collins

    ·

    BOS 3·KC 1

  6. B9

    ·

    BOS 3·KC 1

  7. B9

    Caglianone grounded out to first.

    ·

    BOS 3·KC 1

    −3pp

  8. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BOS 3·KC 1

  9. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 3

    ·

    BOS 3·KC 1

  10. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    BOS 3·KC 1

  11. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    BOS 3·KC 1

  12. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    BOS 3·KC 1

  13. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BOS 3·KC 1

  14. B9

    Aroldis Chapman pitches to Jac Caglianone

    ·

    BOS 3·KC 1

  15. B9

    ·

    BOS 3·KC 1

  16. B9

    Starling Marte challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Starling Marte called out on strikes.

    ·

    BOS 3·KC 1

    −4pp

  17. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    BOS 3·KC 1

  18. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BOS 3·KC 1

  19. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 1

    ·

    BOS 3·KC 1

  20. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BOS 3·KC 1

  21. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BOS 3·KC 1

  22. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    BOS 3·KC 1

  23. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BOS 3·KC 1

  24. B9

    Aroldis Chapman pitches to Starling Marte

    ·

    BOS 3·KC 1

  25. B9

    Chapman relieved Whitlock

    ·

    BOS 3·KC 1

  26. B9

    Rafaela in center field.

    BOS 3·KC 1

  27. B9

    Marte hit for Jensen

    ·

    BOS 3·KC 1

  28. B9

    Duran in left field.

    BOS 3·KC 1

  29. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    BOS 3·KC 1

  30. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    BOS 3·KC 1

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

KC

Home

3

Runs

1

9

Hits

6

0

Errors

0

15

TB

9

1

HR

0

3

BB

1

8

K

13

13

LOB

13

Betting line

BOS -1.5·O/U 9·BOS -111/KC -108

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-112

Close price

-112

Open no-vig

50.4%

Close no-vig

50.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 968 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 20, 26sim 95
    24
    7(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 28, 26sim 94
    142
    1(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 19, 26sim 94
    27
    7(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 19, 26sim 93
    260
    20(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 23, 26sim 93
    120
    7(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 7, 26sim 92
    62
    9(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

KC vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Michael WachaKC
    5.4± 2.1low
  • Connelly EarlyBOS
    5.1± 2.1low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.7high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
    1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.5± 2.9high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.4± 1.5high
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
    1.8± 1.1high

RBIs

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Salvador PerezKC
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.5± 3.6low
  • Noah CameronKC
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Seth LugoKC
    2.6± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

39.5%

ensemble · BOS favored

  • Elo Static

    47.7%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    47.1%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    46.5%

    P(KC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.49 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 15 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS · CF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Wilyer AbreuBOS · RF
    SPRINT2872