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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2SEA
SEA

SEA

25-27

2
0
KC

KC

20-31

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

2 of 15 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri
18,842 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

KC spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

KC no-vig %

44.9%

open 44.9%

+2.0-0.5KC SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL48.9%39.7%KC NO-VIG %May 21, 4 PMMay 22, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = KC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SEA wins

SEA 2 · KC 0 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked KC +1pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SEA0000002002
KC0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+3.1pp

best edge · KC · DraftKings

SEA

no live price

KC

★ best
+105DraftKings

edge +3.1pp · implied 45.8%

BookSEAKCBest edge
DraftKings-136+105★+3.1

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 28, 26sim 96
    142
    1(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 23, 26sim 95
    120
    7(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 16, 26sim 94
    142
    6(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 15, 26sim 92
    142
    6(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 24, 26sim 92
    234
    14(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 12, 26sim 92
    280
    9(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Fri, May 22·Final/SeriesKC wins series 2-1/VegasSEA -121

Recap · MLB

Seattle Mariners went into Kansas City Royals and beat them, 2–0.

SEA -1.5 cashed (won by 2). Total stayed UNDER 8.0 by 6.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SEA · top performer

SEA
Mitch Garver

Mitch Garver

C

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

2

RBI

KC · top performer

KC
Maikel Garcia

Maikel Garcia

3B

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · Seattle Mariners at Kansas City Royals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SEA25-27
2
0
KC20-31
SEA25-27·KC20-31
SEA

SEA

25-27

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. Crawford★SS
0-44000000
SPRINT25.513
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
2-44020000
SPRINT28.688
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
0-22000021
R. RefsnyderR. Refsnyder★DH
0-33000003
P. WisdomP. Wisdom★3B
0-44000002
C. YoungC. Young★2B
0-33100010
SPRINT27.662
M. GarverM. Garver★C
2-44122101
SPRINT24.53
V. RoblesV. Robles★RF
0-22000001
C. EmersonC. Emerson★3B
1-33010000
D. CanzoneD. CanzoneDH
0-11000000
L. RaleyL. RaleyRF
0-11000000
Team5-3131252138
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
L. GilbertL. Gilbert★SP
5.2200260
E. BazardoE. BazardoRP
1.1000030
M. BrashM. BrashRP
1.0200010
A. MunozA. MunozRP
1.0000000
Team9.04002100
KC

KC

20-31

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
2-44020001
SPRINT27.765
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
0-44000002
SPRINT30.399+
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
1-33010010
SPRINT25.411
S. PerezS. Perez★C
0-44000000
SPRINT241
C. JensenC. Jensen★C
0-44000002
J. CaglianoneJ. Caglianone★RF
0-44000001
I. CollinsI. Collins★LF
0-33000002
M. MasseyM. Massey★2B
1-33010001
SPRINT26.838
K. IsbelK. Isbel★CF
0-22000011
Team4-31310400210
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
N. CameronN. Cameron★SP
6.0400280
N. MearsN. MearsRP
1.0122101
A. LangeA. LangeRP
1.0000000
E. MorganE. MorganRP
1.0000000
Team9.0522381

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SEA

  • L. Gilbert
    94 pitches·24% CSW
    • FF
      35%·94.9 mph·11% whiff
    • SL
      24%·85.7 mph·36% whiff
    • FS
      17%·81.3 mph·14% whiff
    • CU
      10%·80.5 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      9%·90.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      5%·85.9 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Brash
    28 pitches·25% CSW
    • SL
      61%·87.1 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      25%·97.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      7%·90.5 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      7%·96.4 mph·— whiff
  • E. Bazardo
    25 pitches·32% CSW
    • ST
      56%·83.5 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      40%·94.4 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      4%·95.0 mph·— whiff
  • A. Munoz
    16 pitches·25% CSW
    • SL
      88%·87.7 mph·29% whiff
    • CH
      13%·92.2 mph·100% whiff

KC

  • N. Cameron
    96 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      35%·92.0 mph·7% whiff
    • CH
      19%·79.9 mph·25% whiff
    • CU
      16%·81.5 mph·71% whiff
    • FC
      14%·89.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      13%·85.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      4%·91.6 mph·0% whiff
  • N. Mears
    17 pitches·24% CSW
    • CU
      24%·81.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      24%·83.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      18%·85.5 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      18%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      18%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
  • E. Morgan
    14 pitches·21% CSW
    • FF
      43%·91.7 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      29%·77.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      29%·85.7 mph·33% whiff
  • A. Lange
    11 pitches·18% CSW
    • SI
      45%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      18%·90.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      18%·91.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      18%·88.3 mph·50% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

5

Hits

4

2

Runs

0

1

Errors

0

Current series

KC wins series 2-1

May 22SEASEA2@KCKC0today
May 23SEASEA0@KCKC5
May 24SEASEA6@KCKC8

Season series

KC leads series 3-1

May 2KCKC7@SEASEA6
May 3KCKC3@SEASEA2
May 3KCKC4@SEASEA1
May 22SEASEA2@KCKC0today
May 23SEASEA0@KCKC5
May 24SEASEA6@KCKC8

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SEA -1.5

Total

8.0

Defensive · -0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

SEASEA-12155%
KCKC+10050%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

8.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSEA ↔ KC

Biggest swing: 27pp · Top 7th Inning

SEASEA
M. Garver

M. Garver

C

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

L. Gilbert

L. Gilbert

SP

Starting pitcher

5.2 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 2 H · 2 BB

KCKC
M. Garcia

M. Garcia

3B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

N. Cameron

N. Cameron

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 8 K · 0 ER · 4 H · 2 BB

How it ended

SEA beat KC 2-0. Garver's play in the top 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (27pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

KC vs SEA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
KCTop 5th Inning · 0-0
+9pp→ 52% WP

Robles · grounded into double play, third to second to first, Garver out at second.

SEATop 7th Inning · 2-0
+27pp→ 84% WP

Garver · homered to left (406 feet), Young scored.

SEABottom 8th Inning · 2-0
+10pp→ 93% WP

Pasquantino · lined out to right.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SEA0000002002
KC0000000000

Period scoring

SEA won 1 · KC won 0

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

2
0

Inn 7

Garver 2

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

SEA
KC

Play-by-play · 550 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    SEA 2·KC 0

  2. B9

    ·

    SEA 2·KC 0

  3. B9

    Caglianone lined out to third.

    ·

    SEA 2·KC 0

    −1pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SEA 2·KC 0

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    SEA 2·KC 0

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    SEA 2·KC 0

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    SEA 2·KC 0

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    ·

    SEA 2·KC 0

  9. B9

    Andres Munoz pitches to Jac Caglianone

    ·

    SEA 2·KC 0

  10. B9

    ·

    SEA 2·KC 0

  11. B9

    Jensen fouled out to first.

    ·

    SEA 2·KC 0

    −3pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 7 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SEA 2·KC 0

  13. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    ·

    SEA 2·KC 0

  14. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    SEA 2·KC 0

  15. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 2

    ·

    SEA 2·KC 0

  16. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    SEA 2·KC 0

  17. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    SEA 2·KC 0

  18. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    SEA 2·KC 0

  19. B9

    Andres Munoz pitches to Carter Jensen

    ·

    SEA 2·KC 0

  20. B9

    ·

    SEA 2·KC 0

  21. B9

    Perez lined out to center.

    ·

    SEA 2·KC 0

    −4pp

  22. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    SEA 2·KC 0

  23. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    SEA 2·KC 0

  24. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    SEA 2·KC 0

  25. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    SEA 2·KC 0

  26. B9

    Andres Munoz pitches to Salvador Perez

    ·

    SEA 2·KC 0

  27. B9

    Muñoz relieved Brash

    ·

    SEA 2·KC 0

  28. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    SEA 2·KC 0

  29. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    SEA 2·KC 0

  30. T9

    ·

    SEA 2·KC 0

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

KC

Home

2

Runs

0

5

Hits

4

1

Errors

0

9

TB

4

1

HR

0

3

BB

2

8

K

10

9

LOB

11

Betting line

SEA -1.5·O/U 8·SEA -121/KC +100

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+113

Close price

+113

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

44.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

KC vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low
  • Emerson HancockSEA
    5.5± 4.3low
  • Michael WachaKC
    5.4± 2.1low

Hits

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Josh NaylorSEA
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.5± 2.2high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    2.0± 2.3high
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC
    1.7± 1.5high

RBIs

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    0.7± 1.0high
  • Colt EmersonSEA
    0.6± 1.4low

Earned runs

  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • Noah CameronKC
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Seth LugoKC
    2.6± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

47.8%

ensemble · SEA favored

  • Elo Static

    51.2%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    50.1%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    50.0%

    P(KC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.54 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.