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Live · 11
  • MLBTop 7
    DET 1@CHW 0
    -53.1ppmedium
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    SD 2@WSH 4
    +49.7pplow
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    LAA 2@TB 4
    +28.5pplow
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    SF 2@COL 0
    -35.3pplow
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    +56.0pplow
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    BOS 7@CLE 4
    -60.4pplow
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    +48.1pplow
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    KC 0@TEX 6
    +40.3pplow
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    +45.4pplow
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THE ONE Analytics
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KC logo
KC
0
LiveBot 4th
TEX logo
TEX
6
Updated 3:49 PM ET
BOT 4TH+6TEX↑
KC

KC

22-36

0
6
TEX

TEX

27-31

MLB · At bat

Bottom 4·1-0·2 outs

Pitcher· KC

M. Wacha

3.2 IP, 3 K, 6 ER

Batter· TEX

E. Duran

1-2, 2 RBI

LastPitch 1 : Ball 1

Live · model leanBot 4thPolls every 30s

78.6%

TEX wins · current

Pre-game: 59.0% TEX

KC 0 · 6 TEX

TEX +6

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 4
away leadsTEX leads

Key moments · live

newest first
  • ↑SwingTEXBottom 1st Inning · 0-2
    +19pp→ 76% WP

    Duran · tripled to left, Jung scored and Burger scored.

Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 7.44

M. Wacha

4-2 · 2.69 ERA

vs

J. Leiter

2-4 · 4.75 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

TEX spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 7.5

TEX no-vig %

51.5%

open 51.1% · +0.4

+2.0-0.5TEX SPREADO/U 8.0O/U 7.0TOTAL55.5%47.1%TEX NO-VIG %May 30, 5 PMMay 31, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TEX favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown
Live model · pick
Receipts
Line shop
Player props
The One modelEdge
● Live
KC0

KC

Royals

24-39

vs59.0%TEX

TEX★

Rangers

30-34

TEX6
KC 41.0%win prob59.0% TEX
TEX 1488 · KC 1451Box score→

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21+

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Live read

Osuna singled to right, Duran scored. → win prob 76→82% TEX · leverage low · next play ≈ ±2pp

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

99.0%

+40.3ppvs pre-game · TEX favored

Leverage

±2.3

pp · next play

low · 3/100

Mostly decided · home ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

61%Last 7 · 63-41
62%Last 30 · 324-202
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+7.9pp

best edge · TEX · DraftKings

KC

no live price

TEX

★ best
-115DraftKings

edge +7.9pp · implied 51.1%

BookKCTEXBest edge
DraftKings-105-115★+7.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.43

CLV pp

Open price

-115

Close price

-117

Open no-vig

51.1%

Close no-vig

51.5%

Line barely moved

MLB·Sun, May 31·Bot 4th/SeriesTEX leads series 2-0/VegasTEX -112
Updated 0s ago
Win-probability impactWPA · win prob added
  1. 1M. WachaKC−36.5pp
  2. 2E. DuranTEX+24.7pp
  3. 3J. JungTEX+21.8pp

KC · top performer

KC
Jac Caglianone

Jac Caglianone

RF

1.000OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

TEX · top performer

TEX
Kyle Higashioka

Kyle Higashioka

C

2.000OPS

2-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Kansas City Royals at Texas Rangers · live

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Bot 4th
KC22-36
0
6
TEX27-31
KC22-36·TEX27-31
KC

KC

22-36

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
C. JensenC. Jensen★C
0-22000001
SPRINT27.457
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
0-22000001
SPRINT30.399+
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
0-22000000
SPRINT25.411
S. PerezS. Perez★C
0-22000001
SPRINT241
J. CaglianoneJ. Caglianone★RF
1-22010001
SPRINT27.148
I. CollinsI. Collins★LF
0-22000002
M. MasseyM. Massey★2B
0-00000010
N. LoftinN. Loftin★2B
0-11000000
K. IsbelK. Isbel★CF
0-11000000
Team1-1414010016
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. WachaM. Wacha★SP
3.2866430
Team3.2866430
TEX

TEX

27-31

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. PedersonJ. Pederson★DH
0-11000020
J. JungJ. Jung★3B
2-33122000
SPRINT25.920
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
0-33000002
J. BurgerJ. Burger★1B
1-11110020
SPRINT2744
E. DuranE. Duran★2B
1-22112000
SPRINT28.891
A. OsunaA. Osuna★LF
1-22111000
SPRINT2872
K. HigashiokaK. Higashioka★C
2-22121000
SPRINT23.91
N. LopezN. Lopez★2B
1-22110001
M. HelmanM. Helman★CF
0-11000000
Team8-1717686043
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
J. LeiterJ. Leiter★SP
4.0100160
Team4.0100160

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

KC

  • M. Wacha
    70 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      30%·92.6 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      17%·84.8 mph·22% whiff
    • CH
      14%·81.6 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      14%·92.7 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      13%·89.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      11%·76.0 mph·0% whiff

TEX

  • J. Leiter
    58 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      50%·97.3 mph·36% whiff
    • SL
      16%·86.5 mph·20% whiff
    • FC
      12%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      10%·91.0 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      7%·95.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      5%·82.4 mph·50% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

1

Hits

8

0

Runs

6

0

Errors

1

Current series

TEX leads series 2-0

May 30KCKC1@TEXTEX9
May 30KCKC6@TEXTEX7
May 31KCKC@TEXTEXtoday

Season series

TEX leads series 2-0

May 30KCKC1@TEXTEX9
May 30KCKC6@TEXTEX7
May 31KCKC@TEXTEXtoday
Jun 9TEXTEX@KCKCupcoming
Jun 10TEXTEX@KCKCupcoming
Jun 11TEXTEX@KCKCupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

KC -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

KCKC-10852%
TEXTEX-11253%

↘2· 6.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet KC -1.5↗SpreadBet KC -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Pitching matchup · today

ESPN · season stats
KCKCSP
M. Wacha

M. Wacha

#52 · 4-2

ERA

2.69

K

60

SV

—

Last 3 starts

5/25vsNYYNYY7.0 IP · 2 ER · 5 K-
5/20vsBOSBOS6.0 IP · 1 ER · 8 K-
5/16@STLSTL6.0 IP · 3 ER · 5 K-
VS
TEXTEXSP
J. Leiter

J. Leiter

#22 · 2-4

ERA

4.75

K

64

SV

—

Last 3 starts

5/27vsHOUHOU6.0 IP · 4 ER · 4 KW(2-4)
5/20@COLCOL5.0 IP · 4 ER · 5 K-
5/16@HOUHOU7.0 IP · 1 ER · 6 KL(1-4)

Starting lineups

ESPN · 1-9 batting order
KCKC5L · 3R · 1S
  1. 1

    C. Jensen

    DH · #22

    L
  2. 2

    B. Witt Jr.

    SS · #7

    R
  3. 3

    V. Pasquantino

    1B · #9

    L
  4. 4

    S. Perez

    C · #13

    R
  5. 5

    J. Caglianone

    RF · #14

    L
  6. 6

    I. Collins

    LF · #1

    B
  7. 7

    M. Massey

    2B · #19

    L
  8. 8

    N. Loftin

    3B · #12

    R
  9. 9

    K. Isbel

    CF · #28

    L
TEXTEX4L · 5R
  1. 1

    J. Pederson

    DH · #3

    L
  2. 2

    J. Jung

    3B · #6

    R
  3. 3

    B. Nimmo

    RF · #24

    L
  4. 4

    J. Burger

    1B · #21

    R
  5. 5

    E. Duran

    SS · #20

    R
  6. 6

    A. Osuna

    LF · #19

    L
  7. 7

    K. Higashioka

    C · #11

    R
  8. 8

    N. Lopez

    2B · #33

    L
  9. 9

    M. Helman

    CF · #23

    R

Live · top performers so far

Bot 4th
Game flowKC ↔ TEX
Just happened

Pitch · 1 : Ball 1

KCKC
J. Caglianone

J. Caglianone

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.000 OPS

M. Wacha

M. Wacha

SP

Starting pitcher

3.2 IP · 3 K · 6 ER · 8 H · 4 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 6 K · 11 ER

TEXTEX
J. Burger

J. Burger

1B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

J. Leiter

J. Leiter

SP

Starting pitcher

4.0 IP · 6 K · 0 ER · 1 H · 1 BB

On pace: 7 IP · 11 K · 0 ER

How it's going

TEX lead KC 6-0 (Bot 4th). Duran's play in the bottom 1st inning drove the biggest swing of the night (19pp).

Win probability

TEX vs KC

0255075100I2I3I4

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TEXBottom 1st Inning · 0-2
+19pp→ 76% WP

Duran · tripled to left, Jung scored and Burger scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team1234R
KC00000
TEX40026

Period scoring

KC won 0 · TEX won 2

0
4

Inn 1

Duran 2

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
2

Inn 4

Jung 2

KC
TEX

Play-by-play · 255 plays

period
event
player
  1. B4

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    KC 0·TEX 6

  2. B4

    Michael Wacha pitches to Ezequiel Duran

    · ·

    KC 0·TEX 6

  3. B4

    · ·

    KC 0·TEX 6

  4. B4

    Burger walked, Jung to second.

    · ·

    KC 0·TEX 6

  5. B4

    Pitch 6 : Ball 4

    · ·

    KC 0·TEX 6

  6. B4

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    KC 0·TEX 6

  7. B4

    Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    KC 0·TEX 6

  8. B4

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    KC 0·TEX 6

  9. B4

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    KC 0·TEX 6

  10. B4

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    KC 0·TEX 6

  11. B4

    Michael Wacha pitches to Jake Burger

    · ·

    KC 0·TEX 6

  12. B4

    · ·

    KC 0·TEX 6

  13. B4

    Nimmo flied out to center, Pederson to third.

    · ·

    KC 0·TEX 6

  14. B4

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    KC 0·TEX 6

  15. B4

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    KC 0·TEX 6

  16. B4

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    KC 0·TEX 6

  17. B4

    Michael Wacha pitches to Brandon Nimmo

    · ·

    KC 0·TEX 6

  18. B4

    · ·

    KC 0·TEX 6

  19. B4

    Jung singled to left, Higashioka scored and Lopez scored, Pederson to second.

    · ·

    KC 0·TEX 6

    +2pp

  20. B4

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    KC 0·TEX 6

  21. B4

    Michael Wacha pitches to Josh Jung

    · ·

    KC 0·TEX 6

  22. B4

    · ·

    KC 0·TEX 4

  23. B4

    Pederson intentionally walked.

    · ·

    KC 0·TEX 4

  24. B4

    Pitch 4 : Automatic Ball - IBB 4

    · ·

    KC 0·TEX 4

  25. B4

    Pitch 3 : Ball 3

    · ·

    KC 0·TEX 4

  26. B4

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    KC 0·TEX 4

  27. B4

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    KC 0·TEX 4

  28. B4

    Michael Wacha pitches to Joc Pederson

    · ·

    KC 0·TEX 4

  29. B4

    · ·

    KC 0·TEX 4

  30. B4

    Helman hit sacrifice bunt to pitcher, Lopez to second, Higashioka to third.

    · ·

    KC 0·TEX 4

Team stats

KC

Away

Stat

TEX

Home

0

Runs

6

1

Hits

8

0

Errors

1

1

TB

13

0

HR

0

1

BB

4

6

K

3

6

LOB

7

Betting line

KC -1.5·O/U 7.5·KC -108/TEX -112

DraftKings · via ESPN

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • Ezequiel DuranTEX · 2B
    SPRINT28.891
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Nick LoftinKC · 2B
    SPRINT2872
  • Alejandro OsunaTEX · LF
    SPRINT2872

Recent pitches · last 8

ESPN PBP · live
  1. Fly OutFF 92#3
  2. BallCU 76#1
  3. BallFF 92#2
  4. BallFC 89#3
  5. Strike LookingSI 92#4
  6. Strike LookingSL 84#5
  7. BallCH 81#6
  8. BallFC 89#1

Player projections

TEX vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.3± 3.6low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    6.0± 2.5low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    5.7± 3.1low

Hits

  • Josh JungTEX
    1.3± 1.0high
  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Jake BurgerTEX
    1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Josh JungTEX
    2.1± 1.9high
  • Joc PedersonTEX
    1.9± 2.9high
  • Jake BurgerTEX
    1.8± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    0.7± 0.9high
  • Carter JensenKC
    0.6± 1.2high
  • Jake BurgerTEX
    0.6± 0.7high

Earned runs

  • Jack LeiterTEX
    3.0± 2.4low
  • Noah CameronKC
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    2.6± 3.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.3%

ensemble · TEX favored

  • Elo Static

    58.7%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    56.2%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    59.4%

    P(TEX win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.37 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

91% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 977 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 29, 26sim 96
    71
    13(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 20, 26sim 95
    181
    9(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 19, 26sim 95
    182
    9(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 10, 26sim 95
    202
    28(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 23, 26sim 95
    211
    28(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 21, 26sim 94
    212
    20(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs