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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+8TEX
KC

KC

22-35

1
9
TEX

TEX

26-31

Globe Life Field · Arlington, Texas
39,704 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

TEX spread

-1.5

open +1.5 · -3.0

Total

O/U 7.5

open O/U 8.0 · -0.5

TEX no-vig %

53.2%

open 53.2%

+2.0-2.0TEX SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.0TOTAL57.2%49.2%TEX NO-VIG %MODEL 55.3%May 28, 5 PMMay 29, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = TEX favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

KC 1 · TEX 9 (by 8)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TEX +6pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
KC0000000011
TEX400022019

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

54%Last 7 · 59-50
61%Last 30 · 320-207
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

KC

no live price

TEX

no live price

BookKCTEXBest edge
DraftKings+114-137+0.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Fri, May 29·Final/SeriesTEX leads series 1-0/VegasTEX -137

Recap · MLB

Texas Rangers held off Kansas City Royals, 9–1. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

TEX -1.5 cashed (won by 8). Total cleared the 7.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

KC · top performer

KC
Maikel Garcia

Maikel Garcia

3B

1.417OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

TEX · top performer

TEX
Joc Pederson

Joc Pederson

DH

1.400OPS

4-1

AB-H

2

R

1

RBI

MLB · Kansas City Royals at Texas Rangers · final

MLB · Box scoreADVANCED

Final
KC22-35
1
9
TEX26-31
KC22-35·TEX26-31
KC

KC

22-35

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
L. ThomasL. Thomas★CF
0-44000001
SPRINT28.688
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
0-44000000
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
2-33120011
SPRINT27.765
S. PerezS. Perez★C
1-33010010
SPRINT241
S. MarteS. Marte★RF
0-33000001
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
2-33021010
SPRINT25.411
N. LoftinN. Loftin★2B
0-44000000
J. CaglianoneJ. Caglianone★RF
1-44010002
SPRINT27.148
K. IsbelK. Isbel★CF
0-33000000
Team6-3131161035
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. KolekS. Kolek★SP
5.0664151
S. CruzS. CruzRP
1.0122111
E. MorganE. MorganRP
1.0200020
E. CerantolaE. CerantolaRP
1.0111021
Team8.010972103
TEX

TEX

26-31

9
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. PedersonJ. Pederson★DH
1-44211112
SPRINT25.716
J. JungJ. Jung★3B
1-55110002
B. NimmoB. Nimmo★RF
1-44112102
SPRINT28.278
J. BurgerJ. Burger★1B
2-44120000
SPRINT2744
E. DuranE. Duran★2B
2-44122001
SPRINT28.891
E. CarterE. Carter★CF
1-33110000
A. OsunaA. Osuna★LF
1-44010000
D. JansenD. Jansen★C
0-33100012
N. LopezN. Lopez★2B
1-44112101
Team10-353591073210
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. GoreM. Gore★SP
6.1400130
T. AlexanderT. AlexanderRP
0.2000000
J. BeeksJ. BeeksRP
1.0100000
G. CollyerG. CollyerRP
1.0111220
Team9.0611350

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

Hits

10

1

Runs

9

2

Errors

0

Current series

TEX leads series 1-0

May 30KCKC1@TEXTEX9today
May 30KCKC@TEXTEXupcoming
May 31KCKC@TEXTEXupcoming

Season series

TEX leads series 1-0

May 30KCKC1@TEXTEX9today
May 30KCKC@TEXTEXupcoming
May 31KCKC@TEXTEXupcoming
Jun 9TEXTEX@KCKCupcoming
Jun 10TEXTEX@KCKCupcoming
Jun 11TEXTEX@KCKCupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TEX -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

↘0.5pt· 6.3h

Moneyline

KCKC+11447%
TEXTEX-13758%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TEX -1.5↗SpreadBet TEX -1.5↗

Headlines · top performers

Game flowKC ↔ TEX

Biggest swing: 16pp · Bottom 1st Inning

KCKC
M. Garcia

M. Garcia

3B

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.417 OPS

S. Kolek

S. Kolek

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 5 K · 4 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

TEXTEX
J. Pederson

J. Pederson

DH

Batter of the game

1-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.400 OPS

M. Gore

M. Gore

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.1 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

How it ended

TEX beat KC 9-1.

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
TEXBottom 1st Inning · 0-0
+9pp→ 66% WP

Pederson · walked.

TEXBottom 1st Inning · 0-2
+16pp→ 79% WP

Duran · singled to center, Pederson scored and Burger scored.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
KC0000000011
TEX40002201—9

Team stats

KC

Away

Stat

TEX

Home

1

Runs

9

6

Hits

10

2

Errors

0

7

TB

22

0

HR

3

3

BB

2

5

K

10

17

LOB

9

Betting line

TEX -1.5·O/U 7.5·KC +114/TEX -137

DraftKings · via ESPN

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

-0.5 since open

Win probability

TEX vs KC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Period scoring

KC won 0 · TEX won 4

0
4

Inn 1

Duran 3

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
2

Inn 5

Nimmo 2

0
2

Inn 6

Lopez 2

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Pederson 1

1

Inn 9

Pasquantino 1

KC
TEX

Play-by-play · 559 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    KC 1·TEX 9

  2. T9

    Caglianone struck out swinging.

    · ·

    KC 1·TEX 9

  3. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    KC 1·TEX 9

  4. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 2

    · ·

    KC 1·TEX 9

  5. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    KC 1·TEX 9

  6. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    KC 1·TEX 9

  7. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    KC 1·TEX 9

  8. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    KC 1·TEX 9

  9. T9

    Gavin Collyer pitches to Jac Caglianone

    · ·

    KC 1·TEX 9

  10. T9

    · ·

    KC 1·TEX 9

  11. T9

    Loftin fouled out to first.

    · ·

    KC 1·TEX 9

  12. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    KC 1·TEX 9

  13. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    · ·

    KC 1·TEX 9

  14. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    KC 1·TEX 9

  15. T9

    Pasquantino to second on fielder's indifference.

    · ·

    KC 1·TEX 9

  16. T9

    Pasquantino to second on fielder's indifference.

    · ·

    KC 1·TEX 9

  17. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    KC 1·TEX 9

  18. T9

    Gavin Collyer pitches to Nick Loftin

    · ·

    KC 1·TEX 9

  19. T9

    · ·

    KC 1·TEX 9

  20. T9

    Pasquantino singled to center, Garcia scored, Perez to third.

    · ·

    KC 1·TEX 9

  21. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    KC 1·TEX 9

  22. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    KC 0·TEX 9

  23. T9

    Gavin Collyer pitches to Vinnie Pasquantino

    · ·

    KC 1·TEX 9

  24. T9

    · ·

    KC 0·TEX 9

  25. T9

    Marte struck out swinging.

    · ·

    KC 0·TEX 9

  26. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    KC 0·TEX 9

  27. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    KC 0·TEX 9

  28. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    KC 0·TEX 9

  29. T9

    Gavin Collyer pitches to Starling Marte

    · ·

    KC 0·TEX 9

  30. T9

    · ·

    KC 0·TEX 9

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-126

Close price

-126

Open no-vig

53.2%

Close no-vig

53.2%

Line barely moved

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • Ezequiel DuranTEX · 2B
    SPRINT28.891
  • Lane ThomasKC · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Brandon NimmoTEX · RF
    SPRINT28.278
  • Sam HaggertyTEX · LF
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

TEX vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 82 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Jacob deGromTEX
    6.3± 3.6low
  • Nathan EovaldiTEX
    6.0± 2.5low
  • Jack LeiterTEX
    5.7± 3.1low

Hits

  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.1± 0.7high
  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    1.1± 1.2high
  • Josh JungTEX
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC
    1.7± 1.5high
  • Salvador PerezKC
    1.7± 2.4high
  • Brandon NimmoTEX
    1.7± 2.4high

RBIs

  • Ezequiel DuranTEX
    0.9± 1.4high
  • Salvador PerezKC
    0.6± 1.1high
  • Jake BurgerTEX
    0.6± 0.7high

Earned runs

  • Jack LeiterTEX
    3.0± 2.4low
  • Noah CameronKC
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Seth LugoKC
    2.6± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.2%

ensemble · TEX favored

  • Elo Static

    56.3%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    55.8%

    P(TEX win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    56.7%

    P(TEX win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.37 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 970 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 8, 26sim 95
    30
    14(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 29, 26sim 94
    180
    1(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 21, 26sim 94
    212
    20(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 23, 26sim 92
    60
    1(H)0
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 24, 26sim 91
    210
    28(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 19, 26sim 90
    182
    9(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs