MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2TEX

TEX

34-34

28-41

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri

17,622 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

KC spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 10.0

open O/U 9.5 · +0.5

KC no-vig %

52.1%

open 53.2% · -1.2

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = KC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

44.1%

ensemble · TEX favored

Elo Static
48.0%
P(KC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
48.0%
P(KC win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
47.9%
P(KC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.05 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.48

CLV pp

Open price

+104

Close price

-102

Open no-vig

46.8%

Close no-vig

48.3%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+8.3pp

best edge · KC · DraftKings

TEX

no live price

★ best

+162DraftKings

edge +8.3pp · implied 35.8%

Book	TEX	KC	Best edge
DraftKings	-216	+162★	+8.3

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

KC vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob deGromTEX
6.4± 3.2low
Nathan EovaldiTEX
5.8± 2.7low
Jack LeiterTEX
5.6± 3.6low

Hits

Kameron MisnerKC
1.5± 0.8low
Jac CaglianoneKC
1.3± 1.4high
Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

Jac CaglianoneKC
2.0± 2.8high
Jake BurgerTEX
1.8± 1.9high
Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.6± 1.5high

RBIs

Carter JensenKC
0.8± 1.1high
Kameron MisnerKC
0.8± 1.3low
Maikel GarciaKC
0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

Jack LeiterTEX
3.1± 2.7low
Michael WachaKC
2.9± 2.7low
Nathan EovaldiTEX
2.9± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TEX

league avg

.699

OPS

.717

.693

.316

OBP

.319

.316

3.99

Runs / G

4.50

3.99

3.79

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.48

1.22

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.38

8.5

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

TEX 4 · KC 2 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TEX +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TEX	1	1	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	4
KC	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. LangfordLF	.214	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. SeagerSS	.186	4	2	2	1	1	0	0
J. Jung3B	.309	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
B. NimmoRF	.259	4	0	2	1	0	0	0
E. Duran2B	.296	4	2	2	0	0	0	0
J. Burger1B	.250	3	0	2	0	0	1	0
E. CarterCF	.178	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
E. DiazC	.444	4	0	2	1	0	0	0
N. Lopez2B	.294	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		36	4	11	4	1	1	6

Player

.214

.186

.309

.259

.296

.250

.178

.444

.294

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. RockerSP	4.2	5	2	2	2	3	83
R. AhlstromRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	14
C. WinnRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	12
J. LatzRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	3	15
Team	9.0	6	2	2	3	7	124

Player

4.2

1.1

1.0

2.0

Team

9.0

124

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. JensenC	.215	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. Witt Jr.SS	.278	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
V. Pasquantino1B	.223	3	1	1	0	0	1	1
J. CaglianoneRF	.279	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
L. ThomasCF	.228	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
M. Massey2B	.255	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. MisnerCF	.500	2	0	1	1	0	1	1
N. Loftin2B	.223	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
I. CollinsLF	.214	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		30	2	6	1	0	3	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. WachaSP	7.0	9	4	4	1	2	102
B. WayRP	2.0	2	0	0	0	4	32
Team	9.0	11	4	4	1	6	134

Team

TEX

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

KC vs TEX.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

Closing-line value.

KC vs TEX.

3 sub-models, blended.