
BOS
21-27

KC
20-29
Line movement
200 snapshots
KC spread
+1.5
open PK · +1.5
Total
O/U 8.0
open O/U 7.5 · +0.5
KC no-vig %
46.8%
open 48.9% · -2.1
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = KC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Postgame · final
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
BOS wins
BOS 7 · KC 1 (by 6)
Model verdict
✓ Hit
Picked BOS +2pp
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| KC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Final play
“End of the 9th inning”
What's next
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
Recap · MLB
oston Red Sox went into Kansas City Royals and beat them, 7–1. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
BOS -1.5 cashed (won by 6). Total cleared the 7.5 OVER by 0.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
BOS · top performer

Jarren Duran
LF
3-2
AB-H
2
R
3
RBI
KC · top performer

Lane Thomas
CF
4-2
AB-H
0
R
1
RBI
MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST


BOS
21-27
| Batting | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
| 2-3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | |
SPRINT29.294 | ||||||||
| 2-5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
SPRINT28.790 | ||||||||
| 2-5 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT2872 | ||||||||
| 2-5 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT26.838 | ||||||||
| 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 0-3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| 3-3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
SPRINT27.560 | ||||||||
| 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1-1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 15-37 | 37 | 7 | 15 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
| Pitching | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR |
| 4.1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 | |
| 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
KC
20-29
| Batting | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | H-AB | AB | R | H | RBI | HR | BB | K |
| 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT27.765 | ||||||||
| 1-4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT30.399+ | ||||||||
| 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| 2-4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT28.688 | ||||||||
| 0-4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | |
| 1-4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
SPRINT25.411 | ||||||||
| 0-3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| 0-2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 1-3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
SPRINT27.457 | ||||||||
| 0-1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Team | 6-31 | 31 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| Pitching | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | HR |
| 2.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
| 3.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| 2.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| 1.0 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 1 |
Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail
Statcast · via Baseball SavantBOS
KC
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
15
Hits
6
7
Runs
1
0
Errors
1
Current series
BOS wins series 3-0
Season series
BOS leads series 2-0
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
BOS -1.5
1.5pt· 6.3h
Total
7.5
Defensive · -1.0 vs avg
0.5pt· 6.3h
Moneyline
2· 6.3h
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 200 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
+1.5 since open
Total
7.5
+0.5 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 15pp · Bottom 1st Inning
J. Duran
LFBatter of the gamePerfect day
2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.467 OPS
R. Suarez
SPStarting pitcher
4.1 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 3 BB
L. Thomas
CFBatter of the game
2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS
L. Avila
RPTop reliever
3.0 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 1 H · 1 BB
How it ended
BOS beat KC 7-1.
Last play
End of the 9th inning
Win probability
KC vs BOS
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactThomas · doubled to right, Witt Jr. scored, Perez to third.
Durbin · singled to center, Narváez scored, Kiner-Falefa to second, Kiner-Falefa safe at third on fielding error by center fielder Thomas.
Jensen · doubled to right.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| KC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Period scoring
BOS won 3 · KC won 0
Inn 1
Contreras 1
Thomas 1
Inn 2
Durbin 1
Inn 3
Inn 4
Inn 5
Inn 6
Inn 7
Inn 8
Contreras 1
Inn 9
Duran 3
Play-by-play · 591 plays
End of the 9th inning
BOS 7·KC 1
·
BOS 7·KC 1
Pasquantino struck out swinging.
·
BOS 7·KC 1
Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging
·
BOS 7·KC 1
Pitch 5 : Ball 1
·
BOS 7·KC 1
Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul
·
BOS 7·KC 1
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul
·
BOS 7·KC 1
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul
·
BOS 7·KC 1
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
·
BOS 7·KC 1
Jovani Moran pitches to Vinnie Pasquantino
·
BOS 7·KC 1
·
BOS 7·KC 1
Marte struck out swinging.
·
BOS 7·KC 1
Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging
·
BOS 7·KC 1
Pitch 6 : Ball 3
·
BOS 7·KC 1
Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul
·
BOS 7·KC 1
Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging
·
BOS 7·KC 1
Pitch 3 : Ball 2
·
BOS 7·KC 1
Pitch 2 : Ball 1
·
BOS 7·KC 1
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking
·
BOS 7·KC 1
Jovani Moran pitches to Starling Marte
·
BOS 7·KC 1
·
BOS 7·KC 1
Caglianone struck out looking.
·
BOS 7·KC 1
Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Looking
·
BOS 7·KC 1
Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul
·
BOS 7·KC 1
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging
·
BOS 7·KC 1
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul
·
BOS 7·KC 1
Jovani Moran pitches to Jac Caglianone
·
BOS 7·KC 1
Morán relieved Whitlock
·
BOS 7·KC 1
Mayer at second base.
BOS 7·KC 1
Sogard at third base.
BOS 7·KC 1
Team stats
BOS
Away
Stat
KC
Home
7
Runs
1
15
Hits
6
0
Errors
1
21
TB
8
1
HR
0
4
BB
3
9
K
10
17
LOB
10
Betting line
BOS -1.5·O/U 7.5·BOS -136/KC +113
Player projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
128
projections · 81 high confidence
Strikeouts
Hits
Total bases
RBIs
Earned runs
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.8%
ensemble · BOS favored
Elo Static
47.8%
P(KC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
43.3%
P(KC win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
46.6%
P(KC win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.89 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
87% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Historical comparables
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs
STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 15 players in cohort