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FINAL+6BOS
BOS

BOS

21-27

7
1
KC

KC

20-29

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri
14,047 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

KC spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 7.5 · +0.5

KC no-vig %

46.8%

open 48.9% · -2.1

+2.0-0.5KC SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.0TOTAL52.9%42.2%KC NO-VIG %May 18, 5 PMMay 19, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = KC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

BOS 7 · KC 1 (by 6)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BOS +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BOS1100000147
KC1000000001

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →
MLB·Tue, May 19·Final/SeriesBOS wins series 3-0/VegasBOS -136

Recap · MLB

Boston Red Sox went into Kansas City Royals and beat them, 7–1. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

BOS -1.5 cashed (won by 6). Total cleared the 7.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BOS · top performer

BOS
Jarren Duran

Jarren Duran

LF

2.467OPS

3-2

AB-H

2

R

3

RBI

KC · top performer

KC
Lane Thomas

Lane Thomas

CF

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · Boston Red Sox at Kansas City Royals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BOS21-27
7
1
KC20-29
BOS21-27·KC20-29
BOS

BOS

21-27

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
2-33223121
SPRINT29.294
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
2-55220002
SPRINT28.790
W. AbreuW. Abreu★RF
2-55020000
SPRINT2872
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★1B
2-55023001
SPRINT26.838
A. MonasterioA. Monasterio★SS
0-22000000
N. SogardN. Sogard★3B
1-44010001
C. NarvaezC. Narvaez★C
0-33100012
I. Kiner-FalefaI. Kiner-Falefa★2B
3-33130010
SPRINT27.560
C. DurbinC. Durbin★3B
1-33011001
M. YoshidaM. YoshidaDH
1-33010001
M. GasperM. GasperC
1-11010000
Team15-37377157149
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
R. SuarezR. Suarez★SP
4.1411330
Z. KellyZ. KellyRP
0.2100000
T. SamaniegoT. SamaniegoRP
1.0100010
J. SlatenJ. SlatenRP
1.0000020
G. WhitlockG. WhitlockRP
1.0000010
J. MoranJ. MoranRP
1.0000030
Team9.06113100
KC

KC

20-29

1
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
1-44010001
SPRINT27.765
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
1-44110000
SPRINT30.399+
S. PerezS. Perez★C
0-22000020
L. ThomasL. Thomas★CF
2-44021001
SPRINT28.688
J. CaglianoneJ. Caglianone★RF
0-44000003
S. MarteS. Marte★RF
1-44010001
SPRINT25.411
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
0-33000012
N. LoftinN. Loftin★2B
0-22000001
C. JensenC. Jensen★C
1-33010000
SPRINT27.457
M. MasseyM. Massey2B
0-11000001
Team6-31311610310
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. FalterB. Falter★RP
2.0422320
L. AvilaL. AvilaRP
3.0100130
J. SchreiberJ. SchreiberRP
1.0100020
N. MearsN. MearsRP
2.0211020
E. MorganE. MorganRP
1.0744001
Team9.01577491

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BOS

  • R. Suarez
    81 pitches·27% CSW
    • SI
      35%·90.6 mph·20% whiff
    • CU
      20%·75.9 mph·43% whiff
    • FF
      17%·92.2 mph·25% whiff
    • CH
      15%·82.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      14%·88.7 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Moran
    17 pitches·41% CSW
    • CH
      35%·83.0 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      35%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      12%·87.5 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      12%·81.3 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      6%·93.4 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Slaten
    12 pitches·42% CSW
    • FC
      33%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      25%·86.5 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      25%·87.2 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      17%·96.8 mph·— whiff
  • T. Samaniego
    10 pitches·30% CSW
    • SI
      60%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      30%·84.1 mph·100% whiff
    • FF
      10%·94.0 mph·— whiff
  • Z. Kelly
    8 pitches·13% CSW
    • FC
      38%·90.2 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      38%·81.4 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      13%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      13%·94.2 mph·— whiff
  • G. Whitlock
    7 pitches·71% CSW
    • SI
      57%·95.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      43%·84.9 mph·67% whiff

KC

  • L. Avila
    51 pitches·27% CSW
    • SL
      35%·87.1 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      31%·96.6 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      22%·96.5 mph·20% whiff
    • CH
      8%·91.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      4%·83.1 mph·— whiff
  • B. Falter
    39 pitches·28% CSW
    • FF
      64%·91.6 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      18%·77.5 mph·50% whiff
    • SI
      8%·90.9 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      8%·82.0 mph·50% whiff
    • FS
      3%·85.6 mph·— whiff
  • N. Mears
    27 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      41%·94.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      26%·80.9 mph·25% whiff
    • SI
      19%·92.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      11%·84.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      4%·83.9 mph·— whiff
  • E. Morgan
    26 pitches·19% CSW
    • CH
      38%·77.3 mph·14% whiff
    • FF
      35%·90.8 mph·20% whiff
    • SL
      27%·86.4 mph·20% whiff
  • J. Schreiber
    18 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      44%·93.4 mph·25% whiff
    • ST
      28%·82.3 mph·33% whiff
    • FC
      11%·89.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      11%·92.3 mph·100% whiff
    • CH
      6%·86.7 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

15

Hits

6

7

Runs

1

0

Errors

1

Current series

BOS wins series 3-0

May 18BOSBOS3@KCKC1
May 19BOSBOS7@KCKC1today
May 20BOSBOS4@KCKC3

Season series

BOS leads series 2-0

May 18BOSBOS3@KCKC1
May 19BOSBOS7@KCKC1today
May 20BOSBOS4@KCKC3
Sep 11KCKC@BOSBOSupcoming
Sep 12KCKC@BOSBOSupcoming
Sep 13KCKC@BOSBOSupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -1.5

↗1.5pt· 6.3h

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

↗0.5pt· 6.3h

Moneyline

BOSBOS-13658%
KCKC+11347%

↗2· 6.3h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

7.5

+0.5 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBOS ↔ KC

Biggest swing: 15pp · Bottom 1st Inning

BOSBOS
J. Duran

J. Duran

LF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

2-for-3 · 1 HR · 2.467 OPS

R. Suarez

R. Suarez

SP

Starting pitcher

4.1 IP · 3 K · 1 ER · 4 H · 3 BB

KCKC
L. Thomas

L. Thomas

CF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

L. Avila

L. Avila

RP

Top reliever

3.0 IP · 3 K · 0 ER · 1 H · 1 BB

How it ended

BOS beat KC 7-1.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

KC vs BOS

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
KCBottom 1st Inning · 1-1
+15pp→ 54% WP

Thomas · doubled to right, Witt Jr. scored, Perez to third.

BOSTop 2nd Inning · 2-1
+13pp→ 76% WP

Durbin · singled to center, Narváez scored, Kiner-Falefa to second, Kiner-Falefa safe at third on fielding error by center fielder Thomas.

KCBottom 5th Inning · 2-1
+12pp→ 46% WP

Jensen · doubled to right.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BOS1100000147
KC1000000001

Period scoring

BOS won 3 · KC won 0

1
1

Inn 1

Contreras 1

Thomas 1

1
0

Inn 2

Durbin 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

1
0

Inn 8

Contreras 1

4
0

Inn 9

Duran 3

BOS
KC

Play-by-play · 591 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    BOS 7·KC 1

  2. B9

    ·

    BOS 7·KC 1

  3. B9

    Pasquantino struck out swinging.

    ·

    BOS 7·KC 1

  4. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    BOS 7·KC 1

  5. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball 1

    ·

    BOS 7·KC 1

  6. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BOS 7·KC 1

  7. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BOS 7·KC 1

  8. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BOS 7·KC 1

  9. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BOS 7·KC 1

  10. B9

    Jovani Moran pitches to Vinnie Pasquantino

    ·

    BOS 7·KC 1

  11. B9

    ·

    BOS 7·KC 1

  12. B9

    Marte struck out swinging.

    ·

    BOS 7·KC 1

  13. B9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 3 Swinging

    ·

    BOS 7·KC 1

  14. B9

    Pitch 6 : Ball 3

    ·

    BOS 7·KC 1

  15. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BOS 7·KC 1

  16. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    BOS 7·KC 1

  17. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    ·

    BOS 7·KC 1

  18. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    BOS 7·KC 1

  19. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    BOS 7·KC 1

  20. B9

    Jovani Moran pitches to Starling Marte

    ·

    BOS 7·KC 1

  21. B9

    ·

    BOS 7·KC 1

  22. B9

    Caglianone struck out looking.

    ·

    BOS 7·KC 1

  23. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Looking

    ·

    BOS 7·KC 1

  24. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    BOS 7·KC 1

  25. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    BOS 7·KC 1

  26. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    ·

    BOS 7·KC 1

  27. B9

    Jovani Moran pitches to Jac Caglianone

    ·

    BOS 7·KC 1

  28. B9

    Morán relieved Whitlock

    ·

    BOS 7·KC 1

  29. B9

    Mayer at second base.

    BOS 7·KC 1

  30. B9

    Sogard at third base.

    BOS 7·KC 1

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

KC

Home

7

Runs

1

15

Hits

6

0

Errors

1

21

TB

8

1

HR

0

4

BB

3

9

K

10

17

LOB

10

Betting line

BOS -1.5·O/U 7.5·BOS -136/KC +113

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

KC vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Michael WachaKC
    5.4± 2.1low
  • Connelly EarlyBOS
    5.1± 2.1low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.7high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
    1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.5± 2.9high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.4± 1.5high
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
    1.8± 1.1high

RBIs

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    0.8± 0.9high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Salvador PerezKC
    0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.5± 3.6low
  • Noah CameronKC
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Seth LugoKC
    2.6± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.8%

ensemble · BOS favored

  • Elo Static

    47.8%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    43.3%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    46.6%

    P(KC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.89 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 20, 26sim 99
    24
    7(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 96
    15
    4(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 18, 26sim 94
    23
    7(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 7, 26sim 94
    62
    9(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 6, 26sim 93
    63
    9(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 23, 26sim 92
    132
    3(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS · CF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Lane ThomasKC · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Wilyer AbreuBOS · RF
    SPRINT2872