MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Live read

Jensen grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Collins out at second, Misner to third. → win prob 72→85% HOU

BOT 7TH+4HOU

HOU

31-39

28-41

MLB · At bat

Bottom 70-00 outs

Pitcher· HOU

N. Pearson

1.0 IP, 0 ER

Batter· KC

C. Jensen

1-3

LastNate Pearson pitches to Carter Jensen

Live · model leanBot 7thPolls every 30s

70.4%

HOU wins · current

Pre-game: 51.3% HOU

HOU 9 · 5 KC

HOU +4

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 7

away leadsKC leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingHOUBottom 4th Inning · 9-5
+12pp→ 85% WP
Jensen · grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Collins out at second, Misner to third.
SwingKCBottom 3rd Inning · 9-5
+11pp→ 25% WP
Garcia · singled to left.
SwingKCBottom 1st Inning · 9-5
+11pp→ 25% WP
Misner · singled to center, Perez scored and Massey scored.
SwingHOUTop 1st Inning · 9-0
+13pp→ 96% WP
Alvarez · homered to center (419 feet), Trammell scored, Vázquez scored and Peña scored.
Lead flipHOUTop 1st Inning · 2-0
+16pp→ 56% WP
Alvarez · homered to left (368 feet), Peña scored.

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 9.26

T. Imai

3-3 · 5.24 ERA

L. Avila

1-2 · 4.02 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

KC spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

KC no-vig %

48.2%

open 47.8% · +0.3

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = KC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.4%

ensemble · HOU favored

Elo Static
50.3%
P(KC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
51.7%
P(KC win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
50.4%
P(KC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.63 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

1.0%

-49.3ppvs pre-game · HOU favored

Leverage

±2.4

pp · next play

low · 4/100

Mostly decided · home ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.66

CLV pp

Open price

+100

Close price

-103

Open no-vig

47.8%

Close no-vig

48.5%

Market came to the model

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

HOU

no live price

Book	HOU	KC	Best edge
DraftKings	-112	-108	+0.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

KC vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 88 high confidence

Strikeouts

Peter LambertHOU
5.3± 2.5low
Spencer ArrighettiHOU
5.3± 3.2low
Noah CameronKC
5.3± 2.5low

Hits

Jac CaglianoneKC
1.4± 1.3high
Jeremy PenaHOU
1.2± 1.2high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
1.2± 1.2high

Total bases

Jac CaglianoneKC
2.3± 2.8high
Yordan AlvarezHOU
2.1± 1.8high
Michael MasseyKC
1.9± 2.3high

RBIs

Yordan AlvarezHOU
0.8± 1.5high
Isaac ParedesHOU
0.7± 1.4high
Christian WalkerHOU
0.6± 0.7high

Earned runs

Mike BurrowsHOU
3.7± 2.8low
Michael WachaKC
2.9± 2.7low
Tatsuya ImaiHOU
2.5± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team rate stats

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

HOU

league avg

.730

OPS

◀

.715

.692

.320

OBP

◀

.319

.315

4.56

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.91

4.88

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.45

1.44

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.39

8.5

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.2

The One modelTossup

● Live

HOU★

Astros

36-44

vs51.3%HOU

Royals

30-43

HOU 51.3%win prob48.7% KC

HOU 1488 · KC 1466Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
J. PenaSS	.282	3	2	1	0	0	2	0
Y. AlvarezDH	.323	4	2	3	6	2	0	0
C. Walker1B	.249	4	1	1	1	1	0	2
I. Paredes3B	.234	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. Altuve2B	.234	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
J. LoperfidoLF	.246	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
C. SmithRF	.221	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
T. TrammellCF	.292	3	1	2	1	0	1	1
C. VazquezC	.229	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
J. MeyersCF	.212	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		29	9	9	8	3	7	4

Player

AVG

RBI

.282

.323

.249

.234

.234

.246

.221

.292

.229

.212

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
T. ImaiSP	0.2	4	5	5	1	1	38
S. OkertRP	2.1	3	0	0	0	0	28
A. BlubaughRP	2.0	1	0	0	1	2	38
N. PearsonRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	5
Team	6.0	9	5	5	2	3	109

Player

0.2

2.1

2.0

1.0

Team

6.0

109

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
C. JensenC	.216	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
B. Witt Jr.SS	.276	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
V. Pasquantino1B	.224	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
M. Garcia3B	.262	3	1	1	1	0	0	1
J. CaglianoneRF	.275	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
S. PerezC	.202	3	1	2	0	0	0	0
M. Massey2B	.257	3	1	1	1	0	0	0
K. MisnerCF	.600	3	0	2	2	0	0	0
I. CollinsLF	.217	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
Team		25	5	9	5	0	2	3