MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+7KC

23-37

CIN

30-29

Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati, Ohio

19,409 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

CIN spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 9.0 · -0.5

CIN no-vig %

64.3%

open 63.1% · +1.2

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = CIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.7%

ensemble · CIN favored

Elo Static
59.0%
P(CIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
54.5%
P(CIN win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
58.6%
P(CIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

2.02 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-2.53

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+159

Close price

+178

Open no-vig

36.9%

Close no-vig

34.4%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: hit

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+5.5pp

best edge · CIN · DraftKings

no live price

CIN

★ best

-131DraftKings

edge +5.5pp · implied 54.2%

Book	KC	CIN	Best edge
DraftKings	+109	-131★	+5.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CIN vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chase BurnsCIN
6.9± 3.1low
Noah CameronKC
5.0± 3.0low
Michael WachaKC
4.7± 2.5low

Hits

Kameron MisnerKC
1.5± 0.8low
Jac CaglianoneKC
1.3± 1.4high
Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

Jac CaglianoneKC
2.0± 2.8high
JJ BledayCIN
1.8± 1.4high
Matt McLainCIN
1.7± 2.5high

RBIs

Carter JensenKC
0.8± 1.1high
Kameron MisnerKC
0.8± 1.3low
Maikel GarciaKC
0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

Chris PaddackCIN
3.2± 2.4low
Nick LodoloCIN
3.1± 1.8low
Michael WachaKC
2.9± 2.7low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

CIN

.694

OPS

.717

▶

.705

.316

OBP

◀

.319

.312

4.00

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.19

4.44

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.68

1.38

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.46

8.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

KC 9 · CIN 2 (by 7)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked CIN +9pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
KC	4	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	1	9
CIN	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. JensenC	.223	4	1	0	0	0	1	1
B. Witt Jr.SS	.287	3	2	1	0	0	1	0
V. Pasquantino1B	.213	4	0	2	1	0	1	0
J. CaglianoneRF	.242	4	2	2	2	1	1	1
I. CollinsLF	.216	5	0	1	0	0	0	3
L. ThomasCF	.226	5	2	3	4	1	0	0
M. Massey2B	.250	5	1	3	1	1	0	1
N. Loftin2B	.214	3	1	1	1	0	1	0
K. IsbelCF	.243	5	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		38	9	13	9	3	5	7

Player

.223

.287

.213

.242

.216

.226

.250

.214

.243

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. AvilaRP	5.0	2	1	1	4	5	86
J. SchreiberRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	11
A. LangeRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	9
M. BlackRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	15
E. MorganRP	1.0	2	1	1	1	3	25
Team	9.0	6	2	2	6	12	146

Player

5.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

146

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. DunnRF	.269	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. BledayLF	.301	4	1	1	1	1	1	3
S. Stewart1B	.261	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
E. SuarezDH	.227	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
N. LoweDH	.258	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
S. SteerLF	.272	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
T. StephensonC	.193	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
E. ArroyoSS	.250	4	1	1	0	0	0	3
M. McLain2B	.198	3	0	1	1	0	1	1
W. BensonRF	.179	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		32	2	6	2	1	6	12

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. RichardsonRP	1.0	1	4	4	2	2	30
C. FergusonRP	2.0	2	0	0	0	2	34
B. LeibrandtRP	6.0	10	5	5	3	3	99
Team	9.0	13	9	9	5	7	163

Team

CIN

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

CIN vs KC.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CIN vs KC.

3 sub-models, blended.