WNBA game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1NY

11-4

9695

CHI

4-10

WNBAWed, Jun 17FinalSeriesNY leads series 1-0VegasNY -10.5

NY · top performer

Jonquel Jones

C · #35

16.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CHI · top performer

Sydney Taylor

G · #12

19.2Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

Game flowNY ↔ CHI

Biggest swing: 43pp · 4th Quarter · 0.0

WNBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
B. StewartF · #30	35	17	7-12	1-3	2-3	-1	6	3
L. FiebichF · #13	24	9	2-9	1-5	4-5	+2	6	3
J. JonesC · #35	28	19	6-9	3-5	4-4	-5	8	3
M. JohannesG · #23	17	3	1-5	1-3	—	+2	1	1
S. IonescuG · #20	28	10	4-9	2-4	—	-7	3	1
Bench
S. SaballyF · #0	19	17	8-11	1-4	—	+6	2	2
H. XuC · #21	11	2	1-3	0-1	—	+3	2	2
R. GardnerG · #7	15	10	3-5	0-2	4-4	-3	1	1
P. AstierG · #18	23	9	1-3	—	7-7	+8	5	4
Team		96	33-66	9-27	21-23		34	20
DNP: R. Carrera, R. Allen

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
A. StevensF · #30	20	6	3-6	—	—	+6	6	0
K. CardosoC · #10	24	10	4-7	—	2-2	+7	4	4
S. DigginsG · #4	31	19	7-16	3-5	2-3	+7	2	8
S. TaylorG · #12	28	24	10-16	4-7	—	+4	1	2
G. JaquezG · #11	29	22	7-11	4-5	4-4	+4	3	3
Bench
E. WilliamsC · #1	16	3	1-2	—	1-2	-13	3	0
N. CloudG · #9	28	11	3-7	1-2	4-4	-2	3	4
R. BanhamG · #24	4	0	0-2	0-2	—	-4	2	0
J. SheldonG · #0	10	0	0-2	0-1	—	-9	2	1
A. CoulibalyG · #35	11	0	0-2	0-1	—	-5	2	1
Team		95	35-71	12-23	13-15		28	23
DNP: S. Poffenbarger

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Team stats

Away

Stat

CHI

Home

33-66

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

35-71

FG %

9-27

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

12-23

21-23

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

13-15

Assists

Turnovers

Season series

NY leads series 1-0

Jun 18

NY96@

CHI95today

Jul 22

CHI@

NYupcoming

Aug 19

NY@

CHIupcoming

Aug 29

CHI@

NYupcoming

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NY -10.5

Half-pt above key 10

1.0pt· 6.4h

Total

169.5

Standard · +4.5 vs avg

Moneyline

NY-50083%

CHI+38021%

40· 6.4h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NY -10.5↗SpreadBet NY -10.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

10.5

+2.0 since open

Total

169.5

+1.0 since open

How it ended

NY beat CHI 96-95. J. Jones led with 19 PTS, 8 REB, 3 AST. Sydney Taylor's play in the 4th quarter drove the biggest swing of the night (43pp).

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CHI vs NY

Starters vs bench

production by unit

NYstarters 60% of pts

Starters(5)

58 PTS · 24 REB · 11 AST

GS 44

Bench(4)

38 PTS · 10 REB · 9 AST

GS 39

CHIstarters 85% of pts

Starters(5)

81 PTS · 16 REB · 17 AST

GS 62

Bench(5)

14 PTS · 12 REB · 6 AST

GS 18

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

CHI4th Quarter · 1:19 · 92-89

+24pp→ 39% WP

Jonquel Jones · shooting foul

CHI4th Quarter · 15.6 · 94-95

+26pp→ 53% WP

Sydney Taylor · makes 27-foot three pointer (Skylar Diggins assists)

NY4th Quarter · 0.0 · 96-95

+43pp→ 100% WP

Sydney Taylor · misses 11-foot step back jumpshot

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
NY	27	20	27	22	96
CHI	32	13	23	27	95

Period scoring

NY won 2 · CHI won 2

Sabally 9

Diggins 9

Stewart 7

Taylor 5

Ionescu 5

Jaquez 12

Jones 9

Taylor 11

CHI

Shooting comparison

CHI

50%

33-66

49%

35-71

33%

9-27

3PT

52%

12-23

91%

21-23

87%

13-15

Play-by-play · 399 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
NY 96·CHI 95
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
NY 96·CHI 95
Q4·0.0
Sky offensive team rebound
NY 96·CHI 95
Q4·0.0
Sydney Taylor misses 11-foot step back jumpshotBIG MOMENT
NY 96·CHI 95
−43pp
Q4·10.3
Sabrina Ionescu makes driving layupBIG MOMENT
NY 96·CHI 95
−10pp
Q4·15.6
Sabrina Ionescu enters the game for Rebekah Gardner
·
NY 94·CHI 95
Q4·15.6
Elizabeth Williams enters the game for Azura Stevens
·
NY 94·CHI 95
Q4·15.6
Liberty timeout
NY 94·CHI 95
Q4·15.6
Sydney Taylor makes 27-foot three pointer (Skylar Diggins assists)BIG MOMENT
·
NY 94·CHI 95
+26pp
Q4·21.3
Rebekah Gardner enters the game for Sabrina Ionescu
·
NY 94·CHI 92
Q4·21.3
Azura Stevens enters the game for Elizabeth Williams
·
NY 94·CHI 92
Q4·21.3
Sky timeout
NY 94·CHI 92
Q4·21.3
Sydney Taylor defensive rebound
NY 94·CHI 92
+3pp
Q4·22.2
Breanna Stewart misses 9-foot turnaround jump shotBIG MOMENT
NY 94·CHI 92
+7pp
Q4·27.2
Elizabeth Williams enters the game for Kamilla Cardoso
·
NY 94·CHI 92
Q4·27.2
Liberty Full timeout
NY 94·CHI 92
−4pp
Q4·46.2
Natasha Cloud makes free throw 2 of 2BIG MOMENT
NY 94·CHI 92
−9pp
Q4·46.2
Sabrina Ionescu enters the game for Rebekah Gardner
·
NY 94·CHI 91
Q4·46.2
Kamilla Cardoso enters the game for Azura Stevens
·
NY 94·CHI 91
Q4·46.2
Natasha Cloud makes free throw 1 of 2
NY 94·CHI 91
+3pp
Q4·46.2
Rebekah Gardner shooting foulBIG MOMENT
NY 94·CHI 90
+13pp
Q4·50.5
Rebekah Gardner enters the game for Sabrina Ionescu
·
NY 94·CHI 90
Q4·50.5
Azura Stevens enters the game for Elizabeth Williams
·
NY 94·CHI 90
Q4·50.5
Sky Full timeout
NY 94·CHI 90
Q4·50.5
Jonquel Jones makes 3-foot two point shot (Pauline Astier assists)BIG MOMENT
·
NY 94·CHI 90
−8pp
Q4·1:02
Pauline Astier offensive reboundBIG MOMENT
NY 92·CHI 90
−9pp
Q4·1:05
Leonie Fiebich misses 25-foot three point jumperBIG MOMENT
NY 92·CHI 90
+9pp
Q4·1:19
Elizabeth Williams makes free throw 2 of 2
NY 92·CHI 90
−0.5pp
Q4·1:19
Sky offensive team reboundBIG MOMENT
NY 92·CHI 89
−8pp
Q4·1:19
Elizabeth Williams misses free throw 1 of 2BIG MOMENT
NY 92·CHI 89
−6pp

Betting line

NY -10.5·O/U 169.5·NY -500/CHI +380

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · WNBA

ew York Liberty went into Chicago Sky and beat them, 96–95. It came down to the final possession.

CHI +10.5 cashed (NY won by 1). Total cleared the 169.5 OVER by 21.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Four factors · this game

Who won the possession battle

Dean Oliver’s four factors from this game’s box score — shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounding, free throws.

CHI

eFG%

shooting

56.8%

57.7%

TOV%

ball control

14.6%

11.4%

OREB%

offensive glass

32.3%

22.6%

FT rate

free throws / FGA

31.8%

18.3%

WNBA · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 16 players in cohort

Jonquel JonesNY · C
DRB%.27493
Marine JohannesNY · G
eFG%.62993
Skylar DigginsCHI · G
AST/TO2.792
Breanna StewartNY · F
USG%.28091
Kamilla CardosoCHI · C
ORB%.10789

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

10.7%

ensemble · NY favored

Elo Static
28.9%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
31.3%
P(CHI win)
31%
weight
Pace Efficiency
29.5%
P(CHI win)
35%
weight

Disagreement

1.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

93% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-5.32

CLV pp · steam

Open price

+260

Close price

+350

Open no-vig

26.6%

Close no-vig

21.3%

Market faded the model hard · Graded: miss

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+10.0pp

best edge · NY · DraftKings

★ best

-500DraftKings

edge +10.0pp · implied 80.0%

CHI

no live price

Book	NY	CHI	Best edge
DraftKings	-500★	+380	+10.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

CHI vs NY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 0 high confidence

Points

Breanna StewartNY
18.6± 8.2medium
Rickea JacksonCHI
16.0± 11.0low
Skylar DigginsCHI
15.8± 7.2low

Rebounds

Jonquel JonesNY
9.3± 4.0medium
Breanna StewartNY
8.6± 2.4medium
Kamilla CardosoCHI
7.6± 4.5medium

Assists

Skylar DigginsCHI
4.3± 3.6low
Natasha CloudCHI
4.2± 3.0low
Pauline AstierNY
4.0± 1.8medium

Blocks

Kamilla CardosoCHI
1.7± 2.2medium
Jonquel JonesNY
1.5± 1.4medium
Elizabeth WilliamsCHI
1.3± 1.3low

Steals

Breanna StewartNY
1.5± 1.5medium
Aicha CoulibalyCHI
1.1± 1.2low
Gabriela JaquezCHI
1.1± 1.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

wehoop

league avg

CHI

46.2%

FG%

◀

44.6

42.3%

35.1%

3PT %

◀

33.4

31.5%

88.9

PPG

◀

85.7

83.1

21.1

Assists / G

◀

18.0

19.4

14.6

Turnovers / G

13.0

▶

12.5

On the call · WNBA

3 officials

Referee

Toni Patillo

Referee

Gina Cross

Referee

Agon Abazi

Per-official season stats (foul rate, strike-zone tendency) activate with the season-stats rollup. Bookmark the names for now.

Data via ESPN · wehoop