MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Live read

Caglianone doubled to center, Pasquantino scored. → win prob 53→64% KC

MID 2ND+2KC

25-38

MIN

29-35

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 975 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

MLB · At bat

Mid 20-00 outs

Pitcher

—

Batter

—

LastMiddle of the 2nd inning

Live · model leanMid 2ndPolls every 30s

59.5%

KC wins · current

Pre-game: 54.7% MIN

KC 2 · 0 MIN

KC +2

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 2

away leadsMIN leads

Key moments · live

newest first

Lead flipKCTop 1st Inning · 1-0
+12pp→ 57% WP
Pasquantino · doubled to right, Witt Jr. scored.

Target Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 7.86

M. Wacha

4-3 · 3.23 ERA

Z. Matthews

1-3 · 4.63 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

MIN spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

MIN no-vig %

51.5%

open 51.1% · +0.4

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.2%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
55.3%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
53.6%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
55.5%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.85 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

10.1%

-45.2ppvs pre-game · KC favored

Leverage

±4.1

pp · next play

low · 19/100

One swing game · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.65

CLV pp

Open price

-115

Close price

-118

Open no-vig

51.1%

Close no-vig

51.7%

Market came to the model

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+2.4pp

best edge · MIN · DraftKings

no live price

MIN

★ best

-121DraftKings

edge +2.4pp · implied 52.3%

Book	KC	MIN	Best edge
DraftKings	+100	-121★	+2.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

MIN vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 87 high confidence

Strikeouts

Joe RyanMIN
6.2± 3.4low
Taj BradleyMIN
6.2± 3.0low
Zebby MatthewsMIN
6.0± 1.1low

Hits

Maikel GarciaKC
1.1± 0.9high
Michael MasseyKC
1.0± 1.1high
Alex JacksonMIN
1.0± 1.4low

Total bases

Kody ClemensMIN
2.2± 2.9high
Byron BuxtonMIN
1.9± 1.7high
Michael MasseyKC
1.8± 2.4high

RBIs

Tristan GrayMIN
0.9± 1.7high
Michael MasseyKC
0.7± 0.8high
Brooks LeeMIN
0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

Zebby MatthewsMIN
3.0± 4.0low
Connor PrielippMIN
2.9± 2.5low
Seth LugoKC
2.8± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelLean

● Live

Royals

27-40

vs54.7%MIN

MIN★

Twins

37-37

KC 45.3%win prob54.7% MIN

MIN 1477 · KC 1465Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
C. Jensen★C	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.0
SPRINT27.457
B. Witt Jr.★SS	0-0	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	3.0
SPRINT30.399+
V. Pasquantino★1B	1-1	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	18.1
SPRINT25.411
S. Perez★C	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	3.5
SPRINT241
J. Caglianone★RF	1-1	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	7.6
SPRINT27.148
I. Collins★LF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	2.5
M. Massey★2B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1.5
N. Loftin★2B	0-0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2.0
K. Isbel★CF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.0
Team	2-7	7	2	2	2	0	2	1	—

Batting

Analytics

Player

C. Jensen★C

0-1

0.0

B. Witt Jr.★SS

0-0

3.0

V. Pasquantino★1B

1-1

18.1

S. Perez★C

0-1

3.5

J. Caglianone★RF

1-1

7.6

I. Collins★LF

0-1

2.5

M. Massey★2B

0-1

1.5

N. Loftin★2B

0-0

2.0

K. Isbel★CF

0-1

0.0

Team

2-7

—

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Pitching	Analytics
M. Wacha★SP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	5.2
Team	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	0	—

Pitching

Analytics

Player

M. Wacha★SP

1.0

5.2

Team

1.0

—

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
B. Buxton★CF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2.3
SPRINT29.597
B. Lee★SS	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1.6
SPRINT26.428
K. Clemens★1B	1-1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1.3
SPRINT27.457
J. Bell★DH	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2.5
SPRINT25.18
O. Arcia★SS	0-0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.0
L. Keaschall★2B	0-0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.0
A. Martin★RF	0-0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.0
R. Kreidler★CF	0-0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.0
A. Jackson★C	0-0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.0
Team	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	0	—

Batting

Analytics

Player