MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+4WSH

29-44

WSH

38-35

Nationals Park · Washington, District of Columbia

14,444 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

WSH spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

WSH no-vig %

55.1%

open 55.1%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = WSH favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.2%

ensemble · WSH favored

Elo Static
58.4%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
62.9%
P(WSH win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
59.2%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

1.95 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

87% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-136

Close price

-136

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+12.6pp

best edge · WSH · DraftKings

no live price

WSH

★ best

+102DraftKings

edge +12.6pp · implied 46.5%

Book	KC	WSH	Best edge
DraftKings	-132	+102★	+12.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

WSH vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 88 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cade CavalliWSH
5.9± 3.5medium
Foster GriffinWSH
5.4± 2.7low
Noah CameronKC
5.0± 3.0low

Hits

Kameron MisnerKC
1.5± 0.8low
Jac CaglianoneKC
1.3± 1.4high
James WoodWSH
1.3± 1.1high

Total bases

James WoodWSH
2.5± 2.5high
Jac CaglianoneKC
2.0± 2.8high
Daylen LileWSH
1.9± 2.0high

RBIs

Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
1.0± 1.9high
Carter JensenKC
0.8± 1.1high
Kameron MisnerKC
0.8± 1.3low

Earned runs

Michael WachaKC
2.9± 2.7low
Zack LittellWSH
2.6± 2.6low
Noah CameronKC
2.5± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

WSH

.693

OPS

.717

▶

.745

.316

OBP

.319

▶

.323

3.99

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.47

4.48

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.64

1.38

WHIP

1.31

1.38

8.1

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

KC 3 · WSH 7 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked WSH +8pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
KC	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	3
WSH	0	0	2	0	5	0	0	0	7

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. ThomasCF	.223	5	0	1	0	0	0	1
B. Witt Jr.SS	.284	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
J. CaglianoneRF	.274	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
M. Garcia3B	.267	4	0	1	2	0	0	1
S. MarteRF	.257	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
S. PerezC	.199	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
N. Loftin2B	.235	3	0	2	0	0	1	1
C. JensenC	.221	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
I. CollinsLF	.213	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. RaveRF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		34	3	8	3	0	3	10

Player

.223

.284

.274

.267

.257

.199

.235

.221

.213

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. SpenceRP	4.0	7	6	6	1	1	63
M. BlackRP	2.0	1	1	1	1	0	36
B. WayRP	2.0	0	0	0	2	2	28
Team	8.0	8	7	7	4	3	127

Player

M. SpenceRP

4.0

M. BlackRP

2.0

B. WayRP

2.0

Team

8.0

127

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WoodRF	.282	3	2	1	0	0	1	1
L. Garcia Jr.1B	.259	4	1	1	2	0	0	0
C. Mead1B	.234	4	0	1	2	0	0	1
C. AbramsSS	.285	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. CrewsRF	.195	4	1	1	3	1	0	0
D. LileLF	.263	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
J. YoungCF	.234	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
K. RuizC	.281	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
N. Nunez2B	.209	2	2	2	0	0	1	0
Team		31	7	8	7	1	4	3

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. AlvarezRP	4.0	5	1	1	1	5	58
B. LordRP	3.0	2	2	2	1	2	48
C. BeeterRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	18
G. VarlandRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	20
Team	9.0	8	3	3	3	10	144

Team

WSH

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

WSH vs KC.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

WSH vs KC.

3 sub-models, blended.