Starter edge
1.86 ERA
Tyler Phillips vs Jesus Luzardo - 4.35 ERA
Phillips owns the sharper run-prevention profile, giving MIA cleaner opening script tonight.
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Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies
MIA
MIA
36-37
PregameTue, 6:40 PM EDT
PHI
PHI
39-33
Probable starters
The mound matchup
Combined ERA 6.21
T. Phillips
1-1 · 1.86 ERA
vs
J. Luzardo
5-4 · 4.35 ERA
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketCitizens Bank Park · Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Line movement
200 snapshots
PHI spread
-1.5
open -1.5
Total
O/U 8.0
open O/U 8.0
PHI no-vig %
60.8%
open 60.3% · +0.5
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = PHI favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Tyler Phillips
RP · #30
1-1
W-L
1.86
ERA
1.30
WHIP
41
K
48.1
IP
Last 3 starts
vsARIW(1-1)5.0 IP0 ER5 K
vsTB-4.2 IP3 ER3 K
@NYML(0-1)5.0 IP3 ER2 K
Home starter
Jesus Luzardo
SP · #44
5-4
W-L
4.35
ERA
1.33
WHIP
88
K
78.2
IP
Last 3 starts
@TORW(5-4)5.2 IP1 ER8 K
vsCHW-6.0 IP5 ER2 K
@LAD-5.1 IP2 ER6 K
Vegas line
Spread-1.5
TotalO/U 8.5
Money+153 / -186
Model edge
Win prob44% / 56%
LeanHome · 6pp
ConfidenceLean
Head to head
SeriesPHI leads series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
Place a bet
Take PHI on the model side.
Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.
Model side · moneyline
21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.
Projected lineups
Top of the order, top of mind.
Posted by ESPN ~30 minutes before first pitch.
MIA
- 1.X. Edwards2B
- 2.O. LopezSS
- 3.L. HicksC
- 4.H. HernandezRF
- 5.J. Sanoja3B
- 6.L. JimenezDH
- 7.E. RuizLF
- 8.J. MarseeCF
- 9.C. Norby1B
PHI
- 1.B. MarshLF
- 2.K. Schwarber1B
- 3.B. HarperDH
- 4.A. Bohm3B
- 5.B. Stott2B
- 6.J.T. RealmutoC
- 7.G. Rincones Jr.RF
- 8.J. CrawfordCF
- 9.E. SosaSS
Scouting report · pre-game
PHI vs MIA.
PHI is 6-4 recently; MIA is 7-3.
55.9%
model · PHI win prob
Recent form
- PHI6–4+0.6
- MIA7–3+1.1
Situational
- PHI1d restB2B
- MIA1d restB2B
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. PHI has 0 straight road games; MIA has 4.
Model angle
+6.3ppon MIA
MIA's edge is driven by model confidence. Venue split keeps it from reading cleaner. Weather and park add about 0.4 runs from the total environment.
- ▲Weather + park+0.4pp
- ▼Venue split-1.5pp
- ▼Travel burden-1.1pp
Players to watch
- Lake BacharMIA2.1strikeouts · ±1.3
Lake Bachar · 2.1 K · last-10 2.2 vs season 2.
- Brandon MarshPHI2.1total bases · ±2.3
Brandon Marsh · 2.1 TB · last-10 2.3 vs season 1.8.
- Otto LopezMIA2.0total bases · ±1.8
Otto Lopez · 2 TB · last-10 2 vs season 1.9.
Head-to-head · 1-0 · last 1
PHI is 1-0 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-06-15MIA @ PHI0–7
Line move
open -171→-175toward PHI
The market has moved 0.5pp toward the home side.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
54.5%
ensemble · PHI favored
Elo Static
55.7%
P(PHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
52.7%
P(PHI win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
55.4%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
1.34 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
91% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
PHI vs MIA.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
123
projections · 98 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Cristopher SanchezPHI7.7± 3.4medium
- Max MeyerMIA6.6± 1.8medium
- Zack WheelerPHI6.2± 2.6low
Hits
- Otto LopezMIA1.4± 1.0high
- Liam HicksMIA1.2± 0.9high
- Kyle SchwarberPHI1.2± 1.3high
Total bases
- Brandon MarshPHI2.1± 2.3high
- Otto LopezMIA2.0± 1.8high
- Liam HicksMIA1.9± 2.1high
RBIs
- Alec BohmPHI0.8± 1.1high
- Joe MackMIA0.7± 1.0high
- Kyle StowersMIA0.7± 1.0high
Earned runs
- Andrew PainterPHI3.7± 2.9low
- Aaron NolaPHI3.5± 2.6low
- Sandy AlcantaraMIA3.3± 3.0medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
MIA
league avg
PHI
.702
OPS
◀
.717
.684
.322
OBP
◀
.319
.297
4.25
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.06
4.11
Team ERA
4.18
▶4.05
1.26
WHIP
◀
1.31
1.30
8.8
K / 9
8.5
▶9.5
The One modelLean
Tue, Jun 16MIA
Marlins
44-39
vs55.9%PHI
PHI★
Phillies
47-40
MIA 44.1%win prob55.9% PHI
PHI 1540 · MIA 1524Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
