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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2KC
SEA

SEA

25-29

6
8
KC

KC

22-31

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri
25,014 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

KC spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

KC no-vig %

43.7%

open 44.9% · -1.2

+2.0-0.5KC SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL48.9%39.7%KC NO-VIG %May 23, 4 PMMay 24, 12 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = KC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

SEA 6 · KC 8 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked SEA +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
SEA1000002036
KC000041128

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+7.7pp

best edge · SEA · DraftKings

SEA

★ best
-127DraftKings

edge +7.7pp · implied 53.5%

KC

no live price

BookSEAKCBest edge
DraftKings-127★+106+7.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-1.20

CLV pp

Open price

+113

Close price

+119

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

43.7%

Market faded the model · Graded: hit

MLB·Sun, May 24·Final/SeriesKC wins series 2-1/VegasSEA -127

Recap · MLB

Kansas City Royals held off Seattle Mariners, 8–6.

KC +1.5 cashed (SEA lost outright). Total cleared the 8.5 OVER by 5.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SEA · top performer

SEA
Colt Emerson

Colt Emerson

3B

2.000OPS

4-4

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

KC · top performer

KC
Salvador Perez

Salvador Perez

C

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

3

RBI

MLB · Seattle Mariners at Kansas City Royals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
SEA25-29
6
8
KC22-31
SEA25-29·KC22-31
SEA

SEA

25-29

6
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J.P. CrawfordJ.P. Crawford★SS
1-55011001
SPRINT25.513
J. RodriguezJ. Rodriguez★CF
2-55222100
SPRINT28.688
J. NaylorJ. Naylor★1B
1-44111010
SPRINT23.81
R. ArozarenaR. Arozarena★LF
1-55011002
SPRINT26.941
L. RaleyL. Raley★RF
0-55000000
C. YoungC. Young★2B
1-44010001
D. CanzoneD. Canzone★DH
1-44110000
M. GarverM. Garver★C
1-33110011
C. EmersonC. Emerson★3B
4-44141000
Team12-39396126125
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
B. WooB. Woo★SP
4.2644240
J. FerrerJ. FerrerRP
0.1000000
C. CriswellC. CriswellRP
2.0322000
A. HoppeA. HoppeRP
1.0222210
Team8.01188450
KC

KC

22-31

8
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
2-55022000
SPRINT27.765
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
1-55010001
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
1-44210010
SPRINT25.411
S. PerezS. Perez★C
3-44133000
SPRINT241
C. JensenC. Jensen★C
1-44012001
SPRINT27.457
J. CaglianoneJ. Caglianone★RF
0-33000010
I. CollinsI. Collins★LF
2-33220011
SPRINT27.867
M. MasseyM. Massey★2B
0-22100010
K. IsbelK. Isbel★CF
1-33111002
Team11-33338118045
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
S. LugoS. Lugo★SP
6.1633231
D. Lynch IVD. Lynch IVRP
0.2100000
J. SchreiberJ. SchreiberRP
1.0100010
L. ErcegL. ErcegRP
1.0433010
Team9.01266251

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

SEA

  • B. Woo
    91 pitches·16% CSW
    • FF
      57%·96.3 mph·15% whiff
    • SI
      13%·96.0 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      13%·84.9 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      11%·87.3 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      5%·90.6 mph·25% whiff
  • A. Hoppe
    33 pitches·18% CSW
    • SL
      45%·88.7 mph·60% whiff
    • SI
      30%·98.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      24%·98.3 mph·0% whiff
  • C. Criswell
    25 pitches·24% CSW
    • FC
      32%·87.1 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      24%·86.1 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      24%·79.3 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      12%·90.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      8%·91.9 mph·0% whiff

KC

  • S. Lugo
    86 pitches·23% CSW
    • FC
      21%·89.0 mph·10% whiff
    • ST
      17%·80.2 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      16%·91.3 mph·14% whiff
    • SI
      15%·91.4 mph·13% whiff
    • CU
      12%·76.8 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      7%·83.6 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      7%·83.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CS
      3%·71.1 mph·— whiff
    • SV
      1%·81.2 mph·0% whiff
  • L. Erceg
    32 pitches·22% CSW
    • SL
      38%·84.4 mph·13% whiff
    • SI
      31%·96.6 mph·25% whiff
    • FF
      22%·97.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      9%·89.1 mph·33% whiff
  • J. Schreiber
    12 pitches·33% CSW
    • FF
      42%·93.6 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      25%·82.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      17%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      8%·88.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      8%·90.5 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Lynch IV
    7 pitches·43% CSW
    • SI
      57%·94.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      29%·86.7 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      14%·83.8 mph·100% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

Hits

11

6

Runs

8

3

Errors

0

Current series

KC wins series 2-1

May 22SEASEA2@KCKC0
May 23SEASEA0@KCKC5
May 24SEASEA6@KCKC8today

Season series

KC wins series 5-1

May 2KCKC7@SEASEA6
May 3KCKC3@SEASEA2
May 3KCKC4@SEASEA1
May 22SEASEA2@KCKC0
May 23SEASEA0@KCKC5
May 24SEASEA6@KCKC8today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

SEA -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SEASEA-12756%
KCKC+10649%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗SpreadBet SEA -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowSEA ↔ KC

Biggest swing: 28pp · Bottom 5th Inning

SEASEA
C. Emerson

C. Emerson

3B

Batter of the gamePerfect day

4-for-4 · 1 R · 2.000 OPS

B. Woo

B. Woo

SP

Starting pitcher

4.2 IP · 4 K · 4 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

KCKC
S. Perez

S. Perez

C

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1 R · 1.500 OPS

S. Lugo

S. Lugo

SP

Starting pitcher

6.1 IP · 3 K · 3 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

How it ended

KC beat SEA 8-6. Perez's play in the bottom 5th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (28pp).

Win probability

KC vs SEA

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
SEATop 1st Inning · 1-0
+11pp→ 64% WP

Rodr · íguez homered to left (405 feet).

KCBottom 5th Inning · 1-0
+15pp→ 56% WP

Isbel · reached on bunt single to pitcher, Isbel to second, Massey to second, Massey safe at third on throwing error by pitcher Woo.

KCBottom 5th Inning · 1-2
+28pp→ 69% WP

Perez · singled to left, Isbel scored and Massey scored, Pasquantino to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
SEA1000002036
KC00004112—8

Period scoring

SEA won 2 · KC won 3

1
0

Inn 1

Rodr 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
4

Inn 5

Perez 2

0
1

Inn 6

Isbel 1

2
1

Inn 7

Emerson 1

Perez 1

0
2

Inn 8

Garcia 2

3

Inn 9

Rodr 1

SEA
KC

Play-by-play · 581 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    · ·

    SEA 6·KC 8

  2. T9

    Mariners challenged (play at 1st), call on the field was upheld: Luke Raley grounds out softly, catcher Salvador Perez to first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino.

    · ·

    SEA 6·KC 8

    +4pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SEA 6·KC 8

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    SEA 6·KC 8

  5. T9

    Lucas Erceg pitches to Luke Raley

    · ·

    SEA 6·KC 8

  6. T9

    ·

    SEA 6·KC 8

  7. T9

    Arozarena doubled to left, Naylor scored.

    · ·

    SEA 6·KC 8

    −3pp

  8. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SEA 6·KC 8

  9. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SEA 5·KC 8

  10. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking

    · ·

    SEA 5·KC 8

  11. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging

    · ·

    SEA 6·KC 8

  12. T9

    Naylor to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    SEA 5·KC 8

  13. T9

    Naylor to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    SEA 5·KC 8

  14. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SEA 5·KC 8

  15. T9

    Lucas Erceg pitches to Randy Arozarena

    · ·

    SEA 6·KC 8

  16. T9

    ·

    SEA 5·KC 8

  17. T9

    Naylor singled to center, Rodríguez scored.

    · ·

    SEA 5·KC 8

    −0.7pp

  18. T9

    Pitch 10 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    SEA 5·KC 8

  19. T9

    Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SEA 4·KC 8

  20. T9

    Pitch 8 : Ball 3

    · ·

    SEA 4·KC 8

  21. T9

    Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SEA 4·KC 8

  22. T9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SEA 4·KC 8

  23. T9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SEA 4·KC 8

  24. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    SEA 4·KC 8

  25. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    SEA 4·KC 8

  26. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    SEA 4·KC 8

  27. T9

    Rodríguez to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    SEA 4·KC 8

  28. T9

    Rodríguez to second on fielder's indifference.

    ·

    SEA 4·KC 8

  29. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    SEA 4·KC 8

  30. T9

    Lucas Erceg pitches to Josh Naylor

    · ·

    SEA 5·KC 8

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

KC

Home

6

Runs

8

12

Hits

11

3

Errors

0

20

TB

15

1

HR

0

2

BB

4

5

K

5

13

LOB

19

Betting line

SEA -1.5·O/U 8.5·SEA -127/KC +106

DraftKings · via ESPN

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 22, 26sim 95
    98
    2(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 29, 26sim 94
    287
    21(H)9
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 26, 26sim 93
    161
    23(H)12
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 2, 26sim 92
    1411
    9(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 24, 26sim 92
    45
    26(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 29, 26sim 92
    146
    1(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

KC vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 79 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Logan GilbertSEA
    5.7± 2.4low
  • Emerson HancockSEA
    5.5± 4.3low
  • Michael WachaKC
    5.4± 2.1low

Hits

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    1.3± 0.8high
  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Josh NaylorSEA
    1.1± 1.1high

Total bases

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    2.5± 2.2high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    2.0± 2.3high
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC
    1.7± 1.5high

RBIs

  • Julio RodriguezSEA
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Randy ArozarenaSEA
    0.7± 1.0high
  • Colt EmersonSEA
    0.6± 1.4low

Earned runs

  • Luis CastilloSEA
    3.2± 3.1low
  • Noah CameronKC
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Seth LugoKC
    2.6± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.8%

ensemble · SEA favored

  • Elo Static

    47.6%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    47.7%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    46.4%

    P(KC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.59 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

96% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 15 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • Julio RodriguezSEA · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Luke RaleySEA · RF
    SPRINT28.175