MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+1KC

26-39

MIN

30-36

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 973 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

Target Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota

20,555 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

MIN spread

-1.5

open -1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

MIN no-vig %

58.3%

open 58.3%

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.0%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
55.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
56.2%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
55.6%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.49 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

97% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.98

CLV pp

Open price

+129

Close price

+124

Open no-vig

41.7%

Close no-vig

42.7%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+3.0pp

best edge · KC · DraftKings

★ best

+124DraftKings

edge +3.0pp · implied 42.7%

MIN

no live price

Book	KC	MIN	Best edge
DraftKings	+124★	-149	+3.0

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

MIN vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 87 high confidence

Strikeouts

Joe RyanMIN
6.2± 3.4low
Taj BradleyMIN
6.2± 3.0low
Connor PrielippMIN
5.3± 2.9low

Hits

Maikel GarciaKC
1.1± 0.9high
Michael MasseyKC
1.1± 1.1high
Jac CaglianoneKC
1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

Kody ClemensMIN
2.4± 2.7high
Michael MasseyKC
1.9± 2.3high
Byron BuxtonMIN
1.7± 1.8high

RBIs

Tristan GrayMIN
0.9± 1.7high
Michael MasseyKC
0.7± 0.8high
Brooks LeeMIN
0.7± 1.1high

Earned runs

Connor PrielippMIN
2.9± 2.5low
Michael WachaKC
2.8± 2.7low
Seth LugoKC
2.8± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

KC 3 · MIN 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked MIN +5pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
KC	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	3
MIN	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
C. JensenC	1-4	4	1	1	2	1	0	1	4.9
B. Witt Jr.SS	2-5	5	0	2	1	0	0	1	31.5
V. Pasquantino1B	2-5	5	0	2	0	0	0	0	2.9
M. Garcia3B	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	1	3.9
J. CaglianoneRF	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1.6
M. Massey2B	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	14.9
I. CollinsLF	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	2	0	2.0
J. Rojas3B	0-4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0	41.7
K. IsbelCF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	2	1.0
L. ThomasCF	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	15.8

Team	8-34	34	3	8	3	1	3	6	—

Batting

Analytics

Player

H-AB

RBI

WP±

C. JensenC

1-4

4.9

B. Witt Jr.SS

2-5

31.5

V. Pasquantino1B

2-5

2.9

M. Garcia3B

1-4

3.9

J. CaglianoneRF

0-1

1.6

M. Massey2B

0-4

14.9

I. CollinsLF

1-2

2.0

J. Rojas3B

0-4

41.7

K. IsbelCF

0-3

1.0

L. ThomasCF

1-2

15.8

Team

8-34

—

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Pitching	Analytics
L. AvilaRP	5.0	2	1	1	3	3	0	14.1
D. Lynch IVRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5.7
L. ErcegRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	0	6.0
M. StrahmRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	1	20.4
A. LangeRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	0	26.7
Team	9.0	4	2	2	4	7	1	—

Pitching

Analytics

Player

WP±

L. AvilaRP

5.0

14.1

D. Lynch IVRP

1.0

5.7

L. ErcegRP

1.0

6.0

M. StrahmRP

1.0

20.4

A. LangeRP

1.0

26.7

Team

9.0

—

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Batting	Analytics
T. LarnachLF	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	4.8
B. LeeSS	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	6.7
K. Clemens1B	1-4	4	0	1	0	0	0	0	30.1
J. BellDH	0-4	4	0	0	0	0	0	2	25.9
A. MartinRF	1-3	3	1	1	0	0	1	2	1.2
V. CaratiniC	1-2	2	0	1	0	0	1	1	15.2
R. Lewis3B	0-3	3	0	0	0	0	1	1	14.0
T. Gray3B	0-1	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0.4
R. KreidlerCF	0-2	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.4
O. ArciaSS	1-1	1	1	1	1	1	0	0	32.7
L. Keaschall2B	0-1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	4.5

Team	4-28	28	2	4	2	1	4	7	—

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
	Pitching	Analytics
J. RyanSP	6.0	6	1	1	2	5	1	3.1
T. RogersRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	0	8.8
Y. GomezRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	0	0	7.3
E. OrzeRP	1.0	2	2	2	0	0	0	60.3
Team	9.0	8	3	3	3	6	1	—

Team

MIN