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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1STL
KC

KC

19-26

4
5
STL

STL

26-18

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri
26,949 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

STL spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.5

open O/U 8.5

STL no-vig %

51.0%

open 50.4% · +0.5

+2.0+1.0STL SPREADO/U 9.0O/U 8.0TOTAL55.0%46.4%STL NO-VIG %May 14, 8 PMMay 15, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = STL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

STL wins

KC 4 · STL 5 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked STL +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team1234567891011R
KC000201000104
STL000210000115

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

KC

no live price

STL

no live price

BookKCSTLBest edge
DraftKings+165-220+1.2

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.55

CLV pp

Open price

-112

Close price

-114

Open no-vig

50.4%

Close no-vig

51.0%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

MLB·Fri, May 15·Final/SeriesSTL wins series 2-1/VegasKC -111

Recap · MLB

St. Louis Cardinals held off Kansas City Royals, 5–4. It came down to the final possession.

STL +1.5 cashed (KC lost outright). Total cleared the 8.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

KC · top performer

KC
Jac Caglianone

Jac Caglianone

RF

1.167OPS

2-1

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

STL · top performer

STL
Yohel Pozo

Yohel Pozo

C

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

0

R

1

RBI

MLB · Kansas City Royals at St. Louis Cardinals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final/11
KC19-26
4
5
STL26-18
KC19-26·STL26-18
KC

KC

19-26

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
0-66100000
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
2-55021002
SPRINT30.399+
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
0-33200021
SPRINT25.411
S. PerezS. Perez★C
1-55110001
SPRINT241
C. JensenC. Jensen★C
2-44021010
SPRINT27.457
J. CaglianoneJ. Caglianone★RF
1-22010011
I. CollinsI. Collins★LF
0-22002020
SPRINT27.867
M. MasseyM. Massey★2B
0-55000000
K. IsbelK. Isbel★CF
1-55010001
L. ThomasL. ThomasCF
0-11000011
Team7-3838474077
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. WachaM. Wacha★SP
6.0533152
D. Lynch IVD. Lynch IVRP
1.0100120
N. MearsN. MearsRP
1.0200110
M. StrahmM. StrahmRP
0.2100110
J. SchreiberJ. SchreiberRP
0.1000000
L. ErcegL. ErcegRP
1.0210020
S. CruzS. CruzRP
0.2110100
Team10.212535112
STL

STL

26-18

5
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. WetherholtJ. Wetherholt★2B
0-55000011
I. HerreraI. Herrera★DH
1-44110001
SPRINT25.513
A. BurlesonA. Burleson★1B
2-55021002
SPRINT25.513
J. WalkerJ. Walker★RF
3-55132101
SPRINT28.891
N. GormanN. Gorman★3B
2-44020011
M. WinnM. Winn★SS
1-55010002
N. ChurchN. Church★LF
1-44110011
P. PagesP. Pages★C
1-44111102
SPRINT25.716
V. Scott IIV. Scott II★CF
0-22000000
Y. PozoY. PozoC
1-11011000
J. FerminJ. FerminLF
0-11000020
Team12-404051252511
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
D. MayD. May★SP
6.0433430
G. SorianoG. SorianoRP
0.2100010
J. RomeroJ. RomeroRP
1.1000110
R. O'BrienR. O'BrienRP
1.0100000
R. StanekR. StanekRP
1.0110120
G. GraceffoG. GraceffoRP
1.0000100
Team11.0743770

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

KC

No arsenal data yet for this team’s pitchers.

STL

  • G. Soriano
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      43%·97.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      36%·90.1 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      14%·87.8 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      7%·97.6 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Graceffo
    10 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      30%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      20%·88.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      20%·82.8 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      20%·88.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      10%·94.7 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

7

Hits

12

4

Runs

5

0

Errors

0

Current series

STL wins series 2-1

May 16KCKC4@STLSTL5today
May 16KCKC2@STLSTL4
May 17KCKC2@STLSTL0

Season series

STL leads series 1-0

May 16KCKC4@STLSTL5today
May 16KCKC2@STLSTL4
May 17KCKC2@STLSTL0
Jun 18STLSTL@KCKCupcoming
Jun 20STLSTL@KCKCupcoming
Jun 21STLSTL@KCKCupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

KC -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

KCKC-11153%
STLSTL-10952%

↘2· 4.6h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet KC -1.5↗SpreadBet KC -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowKC ↔ STL

Biggest swing: 36pp · Bottom 11th Inning

KCKC
J. Caglianone

J. Caglianone

RF

Batter of the game

1-for-2 · 1.167 OPS

M. Wacha

M. Wacha

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 5 K · 3 ER · 5 H · 1 BB

STLSTL
Y. Pozo

Y. Pozo

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2.000 OPS

D. May

D. May

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 3 K · 3 ER · 4 H · 4 BB

How it ended

STL beat KC 5-4. Pozo's play in the bottom 11th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (36pp).

Win probability

STL vs KC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9I10I11

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
KCTop 10th Inning · 4-3
+36pp→ 72% WP

Witt Jr. · doubled to center, Garcia scored.

STLBottom 10th Inning · 4-4
+33pp→ 82% WP

Burleson · singled to right, Saggese scored.

STLBottom 11th Inning · 4-5
+36pp→ 100% WP

Pozo · singled to right, Church scored, Wetherholt to second.

Linescore (innings)

Team1234567891011R
KC000201000104
STL000210000115

Period scoring

KC won 1 · STL won 2

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

2
2

Inn 4

Jensen 1

Walker 2

0
1

Inn 5

Pag 1

1
0

Inn 6

Collins 1

0
0

Inn 7

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

1
1

Inn 10

Jr. 1

Burleson 1

0
1

Inn 11

Pozo 1

KC
STL

Play-by-play · 667 plays

period
event
player
  1. B11

    · ·

    KC 4·STL 5

  2. B11

    Pozo singled to right, Church scored, Wetherholt to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    KC 4·STL 5

    +36pp

  3. B11

    Pitch 1 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    KC 4·STL 5

  4. B11

    Steven Cruz pitches to Yohel Pozo

    · ·

    KC 4·STL 5

  5. B11

    Pozo hit for Saggese

    ·

    KC 4·STL 4

  6. B11

    · ·

    KC 4·STL 4

  7. B11

    Wetherholt intentionally walked.

    · ·

    KC 4·STL 4

  8. B11

    Pitch 4 : Automatic Ball - IBB 4

    · ·

    KC 4·STL 4

  9. B11

    Pitch 3 : Automatic Ball - IBB 3

    · ·

    KC 4·STL 4

  10. B11

    Pitch 2 : Automatic Ball - IBB 2

    · ·

    KC 4·STL 4

  11. B11

    Pitch 1 : Automatic Ball - IBB 1

    · ·

    KC 4·STL 4

  12. B11

    Steven Cruz pitches to JJ Wetherholt

    · ·

    KC 4·STL 4

  13. B11

    · ·

    KC 4·STL 4

  14. B11

    Fermín grounded out to second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    KC 4·STL 4

    −19pp

  15. B11

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    KC 4·STL 4

  16. B11

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    KC 4·STL 4

  17. B11

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    KC 4·STL 4

  18. B11

    Steven Cruz pitches to Jose Fermin

    · ·

    KC 4·STL 4

  19. B11

    · ·

    KC 4·STL 4

  20. B11

    Pagés hit sacrifice bunt to pitcher, Church to third.

    · ·

    KC 4·STL 4

    +4pp

  21. B11

    · ·

    KC 4·STL 4

  22. B11

    Steven Cruz pitches to Pedro Pages

    · ·

    KC 4·STL 4

  23. B11

    Cruz relieved Erceg

    ·

    KC 4·STL 4

  24. B11

    Bottom of the 11th inning

    KC 4·STL 4

  25. M11

    Middle of the 11th inning

    KC 4·STL 4

  26. T11

    · ·

    KC 4·STL 4

  27. T11

    Garcia grounded out to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    KC 4·STL 4

    +13pp

  28. T11

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    KC 4·STL 4

  29. T11

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    KC 4·STL 4

  30. T11

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    KC 4·STL 4

Team stats

KC

Away

Stat

STL

Home

4

Runs

5

7

Hits

12

0

Errors

0

9

TB

19

0

HR

2

7

BB

5

7

K

11

23

LOB

25

Betting line

KC -1.5·O/U 8.5·KC -111/STL -109

DraftKings · via ESPN

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 16, 26sim 97
    72
    24(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 1, 26sim 96
    48
    25(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 3, 26sim 95
    43
    25(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 12, 26sim 95
    98
    14(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 30, 26sim 94
    32
    16(H)7
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 20, 26sim 93
    263
    29(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs

Player projections

STL vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Michael WachaKC
    5.4± 2.1low
  • Seth LugoKC
    5.0± 2.1low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    5.0± 3.7low

Hits

  • Bryan TorresSTL
    1.2± 1.1low
  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Alec BurlesonSTL
    1.0± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Bryan TorresSTL
    2.2± 2.6low
  • Ivan HerreraSTL
    1.9± 1.9high
  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    1.8± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    0.6± 1.2low
  • Ivan HerreraSTL
    0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    2.8± 2.1low
  • Noah CameronKC
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Seth LugoKC
    2.6± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.6%

ensemble · STL favored

  • Elo Static

    61.8%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    59.6%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    62.2%

    P(STL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.14 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

92% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 15 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • Jordan WalkerSTL · RF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Lane ThomasKC · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Masyn WinnSTL · SS
    SPRINT2872