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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+2STL
KC

KC

19-27

2
4
STL

STL

27-18

Busch Stadium · St. Louis, Missouri
32,379 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

STL spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

STL no-vig %

52.1%

open 51.7% · +0.3

+2.0-0.5STL SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.5TOTAL56.5%47.7%STL NO-VIG %May 15, 6 PMMay 16, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = STL favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

STL wins

KC 2 · STL 4 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked STL +12pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
KC0000100012
STL100020014

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+12.5pp

best edge · STL · DraftKings

KC

no live price

STL

★ best
-114DraftKings

edge +12.5pp · implied 50.9%

BookKCSTLBest edge
DraftKings-106-114★+12.5

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 15, 26sim 97
    74
    24(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 3, 26sim 96
    43
    25(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 2, 26sim 95
    261
    30(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 18, 26sim 95
    212
    16(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 1, 26sim 94
    260
    30(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Mar 31, 26sim 94
    202
    22(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
MLB·Sat, May 16·Final/SeriesSTL wins series 2-1/VegasSTL -114

Recap · MLB

St. Louis Cardinals held off Kansas City Royals, 4–2.

STL +1.5 cashed (KC lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 9.0 by 3.0.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

KC · top performer

KC
Jac Caglianone

Jac Caglianone

RF

1.750OPS

4-2

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

STL · top performer

STL
Nathan Church

Nathan Church

LF

1.333OPS

3-2

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

MLB · Kansas City Royals at St. Louis Cardinals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
KC19-27
2
4
STL27-18
KC19-27·STL27-18
KC

KC

19-27

2
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
1-44110000
SPRINT27.765
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
1-33010010
SPRINT30.399+
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
1-44011000
SPRINT25.411
S. PerezS. Perez★C
0-44000001
C. JensenC. Jensen★C
0-33000000
J. CaglianoneJ. Caglianone★RF
2-44121100
SPRINT27.148
I. CollinsI. Collins★LF
1-33010010
SPRINT27.867
M. MasseyM. Massey★2B
1-44010000
K. IsbelK. Isbel★CF
1-33010011
S. MarteS. MarteRF
0-11000000
Team8-3333282132
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
N. CameronN. Cameron★SP
6.0533040
B. FalterB. FalterRP
2.0311100
Team8.0844140
STL

STL

27-18

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. WinnM. Winn★SS
0-33101001
SPRINT2872
I. HerreraI. Herrera★DH
1-33110010
SPRINT25.513
J. WalkerJ. Walker★RF
1-44010001
A. BurlesonA. Burleson★1B
1-33012001
SPRINT25.513
J. FerminJ. Fermin★LF
0-44000001
T. SaggeseT. Saggese★LF
1-33110000
N. ChurchN. Church★LF
2-33120000
SPRINT28.586
P. PagesP. Pages★C
0-33000000
V. Scott IIV. Scott II★CF
2-33021000
SPRINT29.798
Team8-2929484014
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
K. LeahyK. Leahy★SP
6.0511320
G. GraceffoG. GraceffoRP
1.0100000
J. BruihlJ. BruihlRP
1.0000000
G. SorianoG. SorianoRP
1.0211001
Team9.0822321

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

KC

  • N. Cameron
    82 pitches·27% CSW
    • FF
      38%·93.0 mph·24% whiff
    • CH
      26%·81.5 mph·20% whiff
    • FC
      13%·90.0 mph·14% whiff
    • CU
      12%·82.6 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      7%·86.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      4%·92.4 mph·0% whiff
  • B. Falter
    28 pitches·18% CSW
    • FF
      57%·93.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      21%·82.9 mph·0% whiff
    • FS
      11%·85.3 mph·— whiff
    • CU
      7%·77.2 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      4%·93.7 mph·— whiff

STL

  • K. Leahy
    90 pitches·31% CSW
    • FF
      33%·93.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      18%·87.6 mph·56% whiff
    • CU
      18%·82.6 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      12%·88.6 mph·0% whiff
    • ST
      10%·84.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      9%·94.2 mph·33% whiff
  • G. Soriano
    14 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      43%·97.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      36%·90.1 mph·33% whiff
    • SL
      14%·87.8 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      7%·97.6 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Graceffo
    10 pitches·20% CSW
    • FF
      30%·96.2 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      20%·88.9 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      20%·82.8 mph·— whiff
    • SL
      20%·88.7 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      10%·94.7 mph·— whiff
  • J. Bruihl
    10 pitches·40% CSW
    • SI
      40%·89.9 mph·33% whiff
    • ST
      40%·78.8 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      20%·81.1 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

8

2

Runs

4

1

Errors

0

Current series

STL wins series 2-1

May 16KCKC4@STLSTL5
May 16KCKC2@STLSTL4today
May 17KCKC2@STLSTL0

Season series

STL leads series 2-0

May 16KCKC4@STLSTL5
May 16KCKC2@STLSTL4today
May 17KCKC2@STLSTL0
Jun 18STLSTL@KCKCupcoming
Jun 20STLSTL@KCKCupcoming
Jun 21STLSTL@KCKCupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

KC -1.5

↗1.5pt· 6.1h

Total

9.0

High-scoring · +0.5 vs avg

Moneyline

KCKC-10651%
STLSTL-11453%

↘2· 6.1h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet KC -1.5↗SpreadBet KC -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

+1.5 since open

Total

9.0

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowKC ↔ STL

Biggest swing: 12pp · Bottom 5th Inning

KCKC
J. Caglianone

J. Caglianone

RF

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1 HR · 1.750 OPS

N. Cameron

N. Cameron

SP

Starting pitcher

6.0 IP · 4 K · 3 ER · 5 H

STLSTL
N. Church

N. Church

LF

Batter of the game

2-for-3 · 1 R · 1.333 OPS

K. Leahy

K. Leahy

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 2 K · 1 ER · 5 H · 3 BB

How it ended

STL beat KC 4-2.

Win probability

STL vs KC

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
STLTop 3rd Inning · 0-1
+9pp→ 76% WP

Pasquantino · flied out to right.

KCTop 5th Inning · 1-1
+12pp→ 39% WP

Pasquantino · singled to center, Garcia scored.

STLBottom 5th Inning · 1-1
+12pp→ 79% WP

Church · doubled to right, Saggese to third.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
KC0000100012
STL10002001—4

Period scoring

KC won 0 · STL won 3

0
1

Inn 1

Burleson 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

1
2

Inn 5

Pasquantino 1

II 1

0
0

Inn 6

0
0

Inn 7

0
1

Inn 8

Burleson 1

1

Inn 9

Caglianone 1

KC
STL

Play-by-play · 483 plays

period
event
player
  1. T9

    ·

    KC 2·STL 4

  2. T9

    Isbel grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Collins out at second.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    KC 2·STL 4

    +7pp

  3. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    KC 2·STL 4

  4. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    KC 2·STL 4

  5. T9

    George Soriano pitches to Kyle Isbel

    · ·

    KC 2·STL 4

  6. T9

    · ·

    KC 2·STL 4

  7. T9

    Massey flied out to center.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    KC 2·STL 4

    +6pp

  8. T9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    KC 2·STL 4

  9. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 2

    · ·

    KC 2·STL 4

  10. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    KC 2·STL 4

  11. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    KC 2·STL 4

  12. T9

    George Soriano pitches to Michael Massey

    · ·

    KC 2·STL 4

  13. T9

    ·

    KC 2·STL 4

  14. T9

    Collins singled to right.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    KC 2·STL 4

    −7pp

  15. T9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    KC 2·STL 4

  16. T9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    ·

    KC 2·STL 4

  17. T9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    KC 2·STL 4

  18. T9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    KC 2·STL 4

  19. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    KC 2·STL 4

  20. T9

    George Soriano pitches to Isaac Collins

    ·

    KC 2·STL 4

  21. T9

    ·

    KC 2·STL 4

  22. T9

    Caglianone homered to right (428 feet).

    ·

    KC 2·STL 4

    −3pp

  23. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    KC 2·STL 4

  24. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    KC 2·STL 4

  25. T9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    KC 1·STL 4

  26. T9

    George Soriano pitches to Jac Caglianone

    ·

    KC 2·STL 4

  27. T9

    Soriano relieved Bruihl

    ·

    KC 1·STL 4

  28. T9

    Top of the 9th inning

    KC 1·STL 4

  29. End 8t

    End of the 8th inning

    KC 1·STL 4

  30. B8

    · ·

    KC 1·STL 4

Team stats

KC

Away

Stat

STL

Home

2

Runs

4

8

Hits

8

1

Errors

0

13

TB

10

1

HR

0

3

BB

1

2

K

4

13

LOB

12

Betting line

KC -1.5·O/U 9·KC -106/STL -114

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.87

CLV pp

Open price

-118

Close price

-114

Open no-vig

51.7%

Close no-vig

50.9%

Market faded the model · Graded: hit

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

4 of 15 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • Jordan WalkerSTL · RF
    SPRINT28.891
  • Nathan ChurchSTL · LF
    SPRINT28.586
  • Masyn WinnSTL · SS
    SPRINT2872

Player projections

STL vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Michael WachaKC
    5.4± 2.1low
  • Seth LugoKC
    5.0± 2.1low
  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    5.0± 3.7low

Hits

  • Bryan TorresSTL
    1.2± 1.1low
  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Alec BurlesonSTL
    1.0± 0.8high

Total bases

  • Bryan TorresSTL
    2.2± 2.6low
  • Ivan HerreraSTL
    1.9± 1.9high
  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    1.8± 2.3high

RBIs

  • Jordan WalkerSTL
    0.8± 1.5high
  • Bryan TorresSTL
    0.6± 1.2low
  • Ivan HerreraSTL
    0.6± 0.9high

Earned runs

  • Matthew LiberatoreSTL
    2.8± 2.1low
  • Noah CameronKC
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Seth LugoKC
    2.6± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.7%

ensemble · STL favored

  • Elo Static

    61.8%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    62.0%

    P(STL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    62.2%

    P(STL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.16 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.