MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

Live read

Marte homered to center (441 feet), Thomas scored and Garcia scored. → win prob 61→88% KC

TOP 9TH+5KC

26-39

MIN

30-36

MLB · At bat

Top 90-00 outs

Pitcher· MIN

J. Lawrence

0.0 IP, 0 ER

Batter· KC

L. Thomas

1-4, 2 K

LastJustin Lawrence pitches to Lane Thomas

Live · model leanTop 9thPolls every 30s

71.1%

KC wins · current

Pre-game: 54.3% MIN

KC 6 · 1 MIN

KC +5

Live momentum · cumulative diff

Inn 8

away leadsMIN leads

Key moments · live

newest first

SwingKCTop 5th Inning · 5-1
+27pp→ 88% WP
Marte · homered to center (441 feet), Thomas scored and Garcia scored.
Lead flipKCTop 5th Inning · 1-1
+9pp→ 52% WP
Jensen · singled to left.
ClutchKCTop 4th Inning · 1-1
+12pp→ 45% WP
Loftin · doubled to right, Pasquantino scored.
SwingMINBottom 2nd Inning · 0-0
+6pp→ 63% WP
Lewis · safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Witt Jr., Clemens safe at third on error.

Target Field · Minneapolis, Minnesota

Probable starters

The mound matchup

Combined ERA 9.48

N. Cameron

2-4 · 4.22 ERA

C. Prielipp

2-3 · 5.26 ERA

Line movement

200 snapshots

MIN spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

MIN no-vig %

50.0%

open 49.6% · +0.4

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = MIN favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Ensemble breakdown

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.0%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
55.0%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
53.8%
P(MIN win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
55.6%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.75 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Live model · pick

Live · model intelligence

calibrated · 90d

Win prob · home

1.0%

-54.0ppvs pre-game · KC favored

Leverage

±2.6

pp · next play

low · 5/100

Mostly decided · 9th or later · away ball

Live edge

—

No fresh in-play moneyline. Live edge needs a snapshot in the last 5 minutes.

Live WP is computed from current score, time remaining, and possession state. The ±pp figure is an estimate of how much a typical next play could swing win probability.

Receipts

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.43

CLV pp

Open price

-108

Close price

-110

Open no-vig

49.6%

Close no-vig

50.0%

Line barely moved

Line shop

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+6.8pp

best edge · MIN · DraftKings

no live price

MIN

★ best

+101DraftKings

edge +6.8pp · implied 47.5%

Book	KC	MIN	Best edge
DraftKings	-122	+101★	+6.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player props

Player projections

MIN vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 89 high confidence

Strikeouts

Taj BradleyMIN
6.2± 3.0low
Joe RyanMIN
6.1± 3.4low
Connor PrielippMIN
5.3± 2.9low

Hits

Michael MasseyKC
1.1± 1.1high
Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.0± 0.7high
Maikel GarciaKC
1.0± 0.8high

Total bases

Kody ClemensMIN
2.3± 2.7high
Michael MasseyKC
1.9± 2.3high
Byron BuxtonMIN
1.7± 1.8high

RBIs

Tristan GrayMIN
1.0± 1.6high
Brooks LeeMIN
0.7± 1.1high
Carter JensenKC
0.6± 1.2high

Earned runs

Connor PrielippMIN
2.9± 2.5low
Michael WachaKC
2.8± 2.7low
Seth LugoKC
2.8± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

The One modelLean

● Live

Royals

28-41

vs54.3%MIN

MIN★

Twins

38-38

KC 45.7%win prob54.3% MIN

MIN 1477 · KC 1465Box score→

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
L. ThomasCF	.227	4	1	1	0	0	0	2
B. Witt Jr.SS	.280	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
M. Garcia3B	.267	3	1	1	1	0	1	0
S. MarteRF	.258	4	1	1	3	1	0	2
V. Pasquantino1B	.220	4	2	2	0	0	0	1
N. Loftin2B	.230	3	0	2	1	0	1	1
I. CollinsLF	.216	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. JensenC	.213	3	1	1	1	0	0	2
T. Tolbert2B	.231	4	0	1	0	0	0	3
M. Massey2B	.265	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	6	9	6	1	3	14

Player

AVG

RBI

.227

.280

.267

.258

.220

.230

.216

.213

.231

.265

Team

pitching box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	PC
N. CameronSP	6.0	3	1	0	0	7	104
J. SchreiberRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	7
M. BlackRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	10
Team	8.0	3	1	0	0	8	121

Player

N. CameronSP

6.0

104

J. SchreiberRP

1.0

M. BlackRP

1.0

Team

8.0

121

batting box score — tap a column header to sort; players who did not play sink to the bottom.
Player	AVG	AB	R	H	RBI	HR	BB	K
A. MartinRF	.247	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
B. LeeSS	.238	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
O. ArciaSS	.300	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. Clemens1B	.243	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. BellDH	.221	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
R. Lewis3B	.164	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. KreidlerCF	.224	2	0	0	1	0	0	0
L. Keaschall2B	.241	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. JacksonC	.261	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. LarnachLF	.255	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		29	1	3	1	0	0	8