Starter edge
0.84 ERA
Hunter Brown vs Framber Valdez - 4.40 ERA
Brown owns the sharper run-prevention profile, giving HOU cleaner opening script tonight.
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Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros
DET
DET
30-42
PregameTue, 8:10 PM EDT
HOU
HOU
33-41
Probable starters
The mound matchup
Combined ERA 5.24
F. Valdez
3-5 · 4.40 ERA
vs
H. Brown
1-0 · 0.84 ERA
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketDaikin Park · Houston, Texas
Line movement
200 snapshots
HOU spread
-1.5
open -1.5
Total
O/U 7.5
open O/U 7.5
HOU no-vig %
57.2%
open 57.2%
Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = HOU favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Framber Valdez
SP · #59
3-5
W-L
4.40
ERA
1.34
WHIP
61
K
77.2
IP
Last 3 starts
vsMINL(3-5)5.0 IP4 ER2 K
vsSEAW(3-4)5.0 IP1 ER5 K
@CHWL(2-4)6.2 IP4 ER4 K
Home starter
Hunter Brown
SP · #58
1-0
W-L
0.84
ERA
1.03
WHIP
17
K
10.2
IP
Last 2 starts
vsBOSW(1-0)6.0 IP1 ER8 K
vsLAA-4.2 IP0 ER9 K
Vegas line
Spread-1.5
TotalO/U 8.5
Money+148 / -180
Model edge
Win prob45% / 55%
LeanHome · 5pp
ConfidenceLean
Head to head
SeriesDET leads series 1-0
TypeCurrent Series
Place a bet
Take HOU on the model side.
Our model leans this way; both DraftKings and FanDuel are open below.
Model side · moneyline
21+ in most states. Lines refreshed at the moment of fetch. We may earn a referral fee on book signups — your odds and terms are unchanged.
Projected lineups
Top of the order, top of mind.
Posted by ESPN ~30 minutes before first pitch.
DET
- 1.K. McGonigle3B
- 2.D. DinglerC
- 3.K. CarpenterRF
- 4.R. GreeneLF
- 5.S. Torkelson1B
- 6.C. KeithDH
- 7.Z. McKinstrySS
- 8.H. Lee2B
- 9.J. OutmanCF
HOU
- 1.J. PenaSS
- 2.Y. AlvarezLF
- 3.C. WalkerDH
- 4.I. Paredes1B
- 5.J. Altuve2B
- 6.Y. DiazC
- 7.C. SmithRF
- 8.B. MatthewsCF
- 9.R. Delgado3B
Scouting report · pre-game
HOU vs DET.
HOU is 5-5 recently; DET is 6-4.
55.1%
model · HOU win prob
Recent form
- HOU5–5-0.6
- DET6–4+2.4
Situational
- HOU1d restB2B
- DET1d restB2B
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. HOU has 0 straight road games; DET has 3.
Model angle
+6.4ppon DET
DET's edge is mostly model confidence plus head to head. Travel burden is the main caution flag. Weather and park remove about 0.1 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.1pp
- ▲Model confidence+0.9pp
- ▼Travel burden-0.8pp
Players to watch
- Kai-Wei TengHOU3.6strikeouts · ±2.9
Kai-Wei Teng · 3.6 K · last-10 4.2 vs season 2.8.
- Dillon DinglerDET2.6total bases · ±3.4
Dillon Dingler · 2.6 TB · last-10 3 vs season 2.
- Yordan AlvarezHOU2.4total bases · ±2.6
Yordan Alvarez · 2.4 TB · last-10 2.5 vs season 2.4.
Head-to-head · 0-1 · last 1
HOU is 0-1 in the recent head-to-head sample.
- 2026-06-15DET @ HOU9–3
Line move
open -149→-149flat
The home moneyline has stayed mostly flat.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
56.6%
ensemble · HOU favored
Elo Static
55.1%
P(HOU win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
59.4%
P(HOU win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
54.6%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
2.14 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
86% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
3 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
HOU vs DET.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
124
projections · 98 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Tarik SkubalDET6.1± 2.9low
- Peter LambertHOU5.3± 2.5low
- Spencer ArrighettiHOU5.2± 2.5low
Hits
- Yordan AlvarezHOU1.4± 1.0high
- Dillon DinglerDET1.3± 1.4high
- Gleyber TorresDET1.2± 1.3high
Total bases
- Dillon DinglerDET2.6± 3.4high
- Yordan AlvarezHOU2.4± 2.6high
- Christian WalkerHOU1.9± 1.6high
RBIs
- Dillon DinglerDET1.0± 1.6high
- Yordan AlvarezHOU0.9± 2.2high
- Christian WalkerHOU0.7± 1.1high
Earned runs
- Mike BurrowsHOU3.6± 2.6low
- Framber ValdezDET2.8± 2.6low
- Tatsuya ImaiHOU2.8± 2.8low
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
DET
league avg
HOU
.712
OPS
.717
▶.730
.316
OBP
.319
.318
4.13
Runs / G
4.50
▶4.54
3.93
Team ERA
◀
4.18
4.95
1.28
WHIP
◀
1.31
1.44
8.2
K / 9
8.5
▶8.7
The One modelLean
Tue, Jun 16DET
Tigers
33-44
vs55.1%HOU
HOU★
Astros
38-46
DET 44.9%win prob55.1% HOU
HOU 1485 · DET 1474Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
