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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+1BOS
BOS

BOS

22-27

4
3
KC

KC

20-30

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri
14,091 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

KC spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 8.0

open O/U 8.0

KC no-vig %

52.5%

open 52.2% · +0.3

+2.0+1.0KC SPREADO/U 8.5O/U 7.5TOTAL56.5%48.1%KC NO-VIG %May 19, 5 PMMay 20, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = KC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

BOS 4 · KC 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked BOS +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
BOS0200002004
KC1000200003

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+16.9pp

best edge · BOS · DraftKings

BOS

★ best
+112DraftKings

edge +16.9pp · implied 44.3%

KC

no live price

BookBOSKCBest edge
DraftKings+112★-146+16.9

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+0.12

CLV pp

Open price

+100

Close price

-101

Open no-vig

47.8%

Close no-vig

47.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

MLB·Wed, May 20·Final/SeriesBOS wins series 3-0/VegasKC -114

Recap · MLB

Boston Red Sox went into Kansas City Royals and beat them, 4–3. It came down to the final possession.

KC +1.5 cashed (BOS won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 7.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

BOS · top performer

BOS
Willson Contreras

Willson Contreras

1B

1.500OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

0

RBI

KC · top performer

KC
Salvador Perez

Salvador Perez

C

2.250OPS

4-3

AB-H

1

R

1

RBI

MLB · Boston Red Sox at Kansas City Royals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
BOS22-27
4
3
KC20-30
BOS22-27·KC20-30
BOS

BOS

22-27

4
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
J. DuranJ. Duran★LF
2-55122102
SPRINT29.294
M. YoshidaM. Yoshida★DH
1-55010000
W. AbreuW. Abreu★RF
1-55010003
W. ContrerasW. Contreras★1B
3-44130000
SPRINT26.838
C. RafaelaC. Rafaela★CF
1-44110001
SPRINT28.790
N. SogardN. Sogard★3B
1-33011011
M. MayerM. Mayer★2B
1-33010010
C. NarvaezC. Narvaez★C
1-33110011
SPRINT257
I. Kiner-FalefaI. Kiner-Falefa★2B
0-22000001
M. GasperM. GasperC
0-11000001
C. DurbinC. Durbin3B
0-11000000
Team11-363641131310
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
C. EarlyC. Early★SP
6.1633152
G. WeissertG. WeissertRP
1.1100010
J. MoranJ. MoranRP
0.1000010
A. ChapmanA. ChapmanRP
1.0100010
Team9.0833182
KC

KC

20-30

3
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
0-55000000
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
1-44010001
SPRINT30.399+
S. PerezS. Perez★C
3-44131100
SPRINT241
I. CollinsI. Collins★LF
0-44000000
N. LoftinN. Loftin★2B
0-44000002
J. CaglianoneJ. Caglianone★RF
2-44020002
SPRINT27.148
S. MarteS. Marte★RF
1-33110011
SPRINT25.411
E. DiazE. Diaz★C
1-33112101
K. IsbelK. Isbel★CF
0-33000000
C. JensenC. JensenC
0-11000001
L. ThomasL. ThomasCF
0-11000000
Team8-3636383218
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
M. WachaM. Wacha★SP
6.0621280
S. CruzS. CruzRP
0.2222011
D. Lynch IVD. Lynch IVRP
1.0200100
A. LangeA. LangeRP
1.1100010
Team9.011433101

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

BOS

  • C. Early
    93 pitches·32% CSW
    • FF
      29%·94.2 mph·46% whiff
    • SI
      27%·92.4 mph·8% whiff
    • CH
      23%·83.8 mph·11% whiff
    • ST
      10%·83.4 mph·67% whiff
    • CU
      9%·78.7 mph·25% whiff
    • SL
      3%·87.8 mph·0% whiff
  • G. Weissert
    21 pitches·43% CSW
    • SI
      48%·93.8 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      24%·93.8 mph·50% whiff
    • ST
      14%·82.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      10%·86.3 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      5%·84.2 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Chapman
    16 pitches·19% CSW
    • FF
      38%·96.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      25%·82.1 mph·100% whiff
    • FS
      19%·90.8 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      19%·98.8 mph·0% whiff
  • J. Moran
    4 pitches·75% CSW
    • FC
      75%·86.6 mph·100% whiff
    • ST
      25%·81.0 mph·100% whiff

KC

  • M. Wacha
    105 pitches·30% CSW
    • FF
      30%·93.0 mph·28% whiff
    • SI
      17%·93.4 mph·13% whiff
    • CH
      16%·81.0 mph·67% whiff
    • CU
      14%·76.7 mph·22% whiff
    • FC
      14%·89.1 mph·17% whiff
    • SL
      9%·85.6 mph·0% whiff
  • D. Lynch IV
    32 pitches·25% CSW
    • CH
      41%·87.0 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      25%·95.5 mph·0% whiff
    • KC
      13%·82.1 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      13%·95.1 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      9%·85.5 mph·— whiff
  • A. Lange
    21 pitches·33% CSW
    • SL
      43%·89.0 mph·43% whiff
    • CH
      24%·91.4 mph·33% whiff
    • FF
      14%·96.5 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      14%·95.1 mph·0% whiff
    • FC
      5%·92.3 mph·— whiff
  • S. Cruz
    18 pitches·17% CSW
    • FF
      61%·98.7 mph·17% whiff
    • FC
      22%·95.1 mph·100% whiff
    • SL
      17%·90.2 mph·0% whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

11

Hits

8

4

Runs

3

1

Errors

1

Current series

BOS wins series 3-0

May 18BOSBOS3@KCKC1
May 19BOSBOS7@KCKC1
May 20BOSBOS4@KCKC3today

Season series

BOS leads series 3-0

May 18BOSBOS3@KCKC1
May 19BOSBOS7@KCKC1
May 20BOSBOS4@KCKC3today
Sep 11KCKC@BOSBOSupcoming
Sep 12KCKC@BOSBOSupcoming
Sep 13KCKC@BOSBOSupcoming

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -1.5

Total

7.5

Defensive · -1.0 vs avg

Moneyline

BOSBOS-10551%
KCKC-11453%

↘2· 6.5h

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

7.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowBOS ↔ KC

Biggest swing: 40pp · Top 7th Inning

BOSBOS
W. Contreras

W. Contreras

1B

Batter of the game

3-for-4 · 1 R · 1.500 OPS

C. Early

C. Early

SP

Starting pitcher

6.1 IP · 5 K · 3 ER · 6 H · 1 BB

KCKC
S. Perez

S. Perez

C

Batter of the gamePerfect day

3-for-4 · 1 HR · 2.250 OPS

M. Wacha

M. Wacha

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.0 IP · 8 K · 1 ER · 6 H · 2 BB

How it ended

BOS beat KC 4-3. Duran's play in the top 7th inning drove the biggest swing of the night (40pp).

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

KC vs BOS

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
KCBottom 5th Inning · 2-3
+30pp→ 71% WP

Díaz homered to left center (405 feet), Marte scored.

BOSTop 7th Inning · 4-3
+40pp→ 70% WP

Duran · homered to left (366 feet), Narváez scored.

KCBottom 9th Inning · 4-3
+15pp→ 28% WP

Marte · singled to right.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
BOS0200002004
KC1000200003

Period scoring

BOS won 2 · KC won 2

0
1

Inn 1

Perez 1

2
0

Inn 2

Sogard 1

0
0

Inn 3

0
0

Inn 4

0
2

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

2
0

Inn 7

Duran 2

0
0

Inn 8

0
0

Inn 9

BOS
KC

Play-by-play · 594 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    BOS 4·KC 3

  2. B9

    · ·

    BOS 4·KC 3

  3. B9

    Garcia grounded out to third.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BOS 4·KC 3

    −13pp

  4. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BOS 4·KC 3

  5. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BOS 4·KC 3

  6. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul

    · ·

    BOS 4·KC 3

  7. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BOS 4·KC 3

  8. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    BOS 4·KC 3

  9. B9

    Aroldis Chapman pitches to Maikel Garcia

    · ·

    BOS 4·KC 3

  10. B9

    · ·

    BOS 4·KC 3

  11. B9

    Thomas flied out to right.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BOS 4·KC 3

    −10pp

  12. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    · ·

    BOS 4·KC 3

  13. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BOS 4·KC 3

  14. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul

    · ·

    BOS 4·KC 3

  15. B9

    Aroldis Chapman pitches to Lane Thomas

    · ·

    BOS 4·KC 3

  16. B9

    Thomas hit for Isbel

    ·

    BOS 4·KC 3

  17. B9

    · ·

    BOS 4·KC 3

  18. B9

    Jensen struck out swinging, Marte to second on passed ball by Narváez.BIG MOMENT

    · ·

    BOS 4·KC 3

    −6pp

  19. B9

    Pitch 6 : Strike 3 Swinging

    · ·

    BOS 4·KC 3

  20. B9

    Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging

    · ·

    BOS 4·KC 3

  21. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball 3

    · ·

    BOS 4·KC 3

  22. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    · ·

    BOS 4·KC 3

  23. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    · ·

    BOS 4·KC 3

  24. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    · ·

    BOS 4·KC 3

  25. B9

    Aroldis Chapman pitches to Carter Jensen

    · ·

    BOS 4·KC 3

  26. B9

    ·

    BOS 4·KC 3

  27. B9

    Marte singled to right.BIG MOMENT

    ·

    BOS 4·KC 3

    +16pp

  28. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    BOS 4·KC 3

  29. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    BOS 4·KC 3

  30. B9

    Aroldis Chapman pitches to Starling Marte

    ·

    BOS 4·KC 3

Team stats

BOS

Away

Stat

KC

Home

4

Runs

3

11

Hits

8

1

Errors

1

19

TB

15

1

HR

2

3

BB

1

10

K

8

17

LOB

16

Betting line

BOS -1.5·O/U 7.5·BOS -105/KC -114

DraftKings · via ESPN

Player projections

KC vs BOS.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 81 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Payton TolleBOS
    6.6± 4.0low
  • Michael WachaKC
    5.4± 2.1low
  • Connelly EarlyBOS
    5.1± 2.1low

Hits

  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    1.4± 0.7high
  • Jarren DuranBOS
    1.2± 1.2high
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
    1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    2.4± 3.0high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    2.4± 1.5high
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS
    1.7± 1.3high

RBIs

  • Jarren DuranBOS
    0.9± 0.9high
  • Willson ContrerasBOS
    0.7± 1.1high
  • Isiah Kiner-FalefaBOS
    0.5± 1.0high

Earned runs

  • Brayan BelloBOS
    3.1± 3.8low
  • Noah CameronKC
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Seth LugoKC
    2.6± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.8%

ensemble · BOS favored

  • Elo Static

    47.8%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    48.1%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    46.3%

    P(KC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.79 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • Jarren DuranBOS · LF
    SPRINT29.294
  • Ceddanne RafaelaBOS · CF
    SPRINT28.790
  • Wilyer AbreuBOS · RF
    SPRINT2872
  • Nick LoftinKC · 2B
    SPRINT2872

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 19, 26sim 99
    27
    7(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 95
    15
    4(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 18, 26sim 95
    23
    7(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 7, 26sim 95
    62
    9(H)4
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 23, 26sim 93
    132
    3(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • Apr 8, 26sim 93
    246
    20(H)1
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs