MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2KC

TEX

32-34

28-39

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri

25,075 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

KC spread

+1.5

open PK · +1.5

Total

O/U 9.5

open O/U 9.0 · +0.5

KC no-vig %

47.5%

open 48.3% · -0.7

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = KC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

44.6%

ensemble · TEX favored

Elo Static
48.4%
P(KC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
50.3%
P(KC win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
48.3%
P(KC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.91 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

94% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+4.4pp

best edge · TEX · DraftKings

TEX

★ best

-121DraftKings

edge +4.4pp · implied 51.3%

no live price

Book	TEX	KC	Best edge
DraftKings	-121★	-108	+4.4

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

KC vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob deGromTEX
6.4± 3.2low
Nathan EovaldiTEX
5.8± 2.7low
Jack LeiterTEX
5.6± 3.6low

Hits

Kameron MisnerKC
1.5± 0.8low
Jac CaglianoneKC
1.3± 1.4high
Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

Jac CaglianoneKC
2.0± 2.8high
Jake BurgerTEX
1.8± 1.9high
Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.6± 1.5high

RBIs

Carter JensenKC
0.8± 1.1high
Kameron MisnerKC
0.8± 1.3low
Maikel GarciaKC
0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

Jack LeiterTEX
3.1± 2.7low
Michael WachaKC
2.9± 2.7low
Nathan EovaldiTEX
2.9± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TEX

league avg

.699

OPS

.717

.693

.316

OBP

.319

.316

3.99

Runs / G

4.50

3.99

3.79

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.48

1.22

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.38

8.5

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

TEX 3 · KC 5 (by 2)

Model verdict

✗ Missed

Picked TEX +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TEX	0	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	3
KC	0	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. PedersonDH	.237	5	1	1	0	0	0	1
C. SeagerSS	.185	4	0	1	1	0	0	2
J. Jung3B	.316	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
B. NimmoRF	.253	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
W. LangfordLF	.226	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
E. Duran2B	.293	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. Burger1B	.238	3	0	1	1	0	1	0
E. CarterCF	.174	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
K. HigashiokaC	.236	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
Team		35	3	9	2	0	2	8

Player

.237

.185

.316

.253

.226

.293

.238

.174

.236

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. EovaldiSP	5.2	4	4	4	3	3	88
J. BeeksRP	0.2	3	1	1	0	0	14
C. WinnRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	8
R. AhlstromRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	14
Team	8.0	8	5	5	3	3	124

Player

5.2

0.2

0.2

1.0

Team

8.0

124

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. JensenC	.214	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
B. Witt Jr.SS	.277	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
M. Garcia3B	.266	4	1	1	1	0	0	2
V. Pasquantino1B	.221	4	1	1	1	0	0	0
S. PerezC	.201	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. CaglianoneRF	.261	3	2	3	3	2	1	0
M. Massey2B	.262	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
I. CollinsLF	.212	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. IsbelCF	.244	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
T. Tolbert2B	.231	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	5	8	5	2	3	3

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. KolekSP	5.0	8	2	1	1	3	86
S. CruzRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	10
D. Lynch IVRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	13
J. SchreiberRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	10
A. LangeRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	19
Team	9.0	9	3	2	2	8	138

Team

TEX

—

3 sub-models, blended.

Where to bet this game.

KC vs TEX.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

KC vs TEX.

3 sub-models, blended.