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THE ONE Analytics
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FINAL+7NYY
NYY

NYY

34-22

7
0
KC

KC

22-34

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri
17,007 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

KC spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

KC no-vig %

42.8%

open 42.8%

+2.0+1.0KC SPREADO/U 9.5O/U 8.5TOTAL46.8%38.8%KC NO-VIG %May 26, 7 PMMay 27, 1 AM

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = KC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

NYY 7 · KC 0 (by 7)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked NYY +14pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team123456789R
NYY0002003207
KC0000000000

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →
Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

↳ Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

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21+

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Model heartbeat

Cross-sport · last 14 days

60%Last 7 · 63-42
62%Last 30 · 326-201
Receipts →

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+2.7pp

best edge · NYY · DraftKings

NYY

★ best
-168DraftKings

edge +2.7pp · implied 58.8%

KC

no live price

BookNYYKCBest edge
DraftKings-168★+128+2.7

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

MLB·Wed, May 27·Final/SeriesNYY win series 3-0/VegasNYY -156

Recap · MLB

New York Yankees went into Kansas City Royals and beat them, 7–0. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

NYY -1.5 cashed (won by 7). Total stayed UNDER 8.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYY · top performer

NYY
Trent Grisham

Trent Grisham

CF

2.000OPS

1-1

AB-H

2

R

0

RBI

KC · top performer

KC
Maikel Garcia

Maikel Garcia

3B

1.000OPS

4-2

AB-H

0

R

0

RBI

MLB · New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals · final

MLB · Box scoreSTATCAST

Final
NYY34-22
7
0
KC22-34
NYY34-22·KC22-34
NYY

NYY

34-22

7
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
P. GoldschmidtP. Goldschmidt★1B
2-44121011
SPRINT24.74
B. RiceB. Rice★1B
2-44123010
SPRINT26.941
A. JudgeA. Judge★RF
0-33001001
SPRINT26.838
C. BellingerC. Bellinger★LF
0-44000002
A. RosarioA. Rosario★3B
0-22000000
A. VolpeA. Volpe★SS
0-33100010
R. McMahonR. McMahon★3B
2-44222101
SPRINT2622
J. CaballeroJ. Caballero★SS
1-44010000
A. WellsA. Wells★C
0-44000002
T. GrishamT. GrishamCF
1-11210010
SPRINT26.735
Team8-3333787147
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
G. ColeG. Cole★SP
6.24000100
F. CruzF. CruzRP
1.1000000
C. DovalC. DovalRP
1.0000000
Team9.04000100
KC

KC

22-34

0
 Batting
PlayerH-ABABRHRBIHRBBK
M. GarciaM. Garcia★3B
2-44020000
SPRINT27.765
B. Witt Jr.B. Witt Jr.★SS
0-44000001
SPRINT30.399+
V. PasquantinoV. Pasquantino★1B
0-44000001
SPRINT25.411
S. PerezS. Perez★C
1-33010001
SPRINT241
C. JensenC. Jensen★C
0-33000001
L. ThomasL. Thomas★CF
0-33000002
J. CaglianoneJ. Caglianone★RF
0-33000002
M. MasseyM. Massey★2B
1-33010001
SPRINT26.838
I. CollinsI. Collins★LF
0-33000001
Team4-30300400010
 Pitching
PlayerIPHRERBBKHR
N. CameronN. Cameron★SP
5.0422140
J. SchreiberJ. SchreiberRP
1.0000000
N. MearsN. MearsRP
0.2233210
A. LangeA. LangeRP
0.1100000
M. BlackM. BlackRP
2.0122121
Team9.0877471

Pitcher arsenals · per-pitch detail

Statcast · via Baseball Savant

NYY

  • G. Cole
    79 pitches·35% CSW
    • FF
      41%·96.4 mph·6% whiff
    • SL
      24%·88.8 mph·60% whiff
    • CH
      18%·85.5 mph·33% whiff
    • KC
      15%·81.9 mph·40% whiff
    • SI
      3%·95.3 mph·0% whiff
  • F. Cruz
    17 pitches·41% CSW
    • FS
      53%·80.8 mph·43% whiff
    • FF
      29%·94.2 mph·50% whiff
    • SL
      12%·82.7 mph·— whiff
    • SI
      6%·92.6 mph·— whiff
  • C. Doval
    11 pitches·36% CSW
    • FC
      64%·100.5 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      18%·95.4 mph·100% whiff
    • SI
      18%·99.3 mph·0% whiff

KC

  • N. Cameron
    94 pitches·29% CSW
    • CU
      24%·81.7 mph·9% whiff
    • FC
      21%·89.7 mph·13% whiff
    • CH
      19%·78.9 mph·40% whiff
    • FF
      16%·92.4 mph·11% whiff
    • SL
      14%·85.4 mph·38% whiff
    • SI
      5%·92.0 mph·0% whiff
  • M. Black
    34 pitches·29% CSW
    • FF
      32%·94.7 mph·40% whiff
    • ST
      26%·83.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      18%·86.7 mph·20% whiff
    • SI
      12%·94.7 mph·50% whiff
    • FC
      9%·91.1 mph·— whiff
    • CH
      3%·89.9 mph·0% whiff
  • N. Mears
    29 pitches·14% CSW
    • FF
      41%·95.4 mph·0% whiff
    • CU
      24%·82.0 mph·0% whiff
    • SL
      21%·85.1 mph·67% whiff
    • SI
      14%·94.6 mph·0% whiff
  • A. Lange
    9 pitches·33% CSW
    • SL
      67%·87.9 mph·0% whiff
    • SI
      22%·96.1 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      11%·93.9 mph·— whiff
  • J. Schreiber
    7 pitches·14% CSW
    • SI
      43%·94.0 mph·0% whiff
    • CH
      14%·87.6 mph·— whiff
    • FC
      14%·91.0 mph·0% whiff
    • FF
      14%·94.6 mph·— whiff
    • ST
      14%·83.9 mph·— whiff

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

Hits

4

7

Runs

0

0

Errors

0

Current series

NYY win series 3-0

May 25NYYNYY4@KCKC3
May 26NYYNYY15@KCKC1
May 27NYYNYY7@KCKC0today

Season series

NYY win series 6-0

Apr 17KCKC2@NYYNYY4
Apr 18KCKC4@NYYNYY13
Apr 19KCKC0@NYYNYY7
May 25NYYNYY4@KCKC3
May 26NYYNYY15@KCKC1
May 27NYYNYY7@KCKC0today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYY -1.5

Total

8.5

Standard · 0.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NYYNYY-15661%
KCKC+12944%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYY -1.5↗SpreadBet NYY -1.5↗

Line movement · 200 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

8.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowNYY ↔ KC

Biggest swing: 17pp · Top 4th Inning

NYYNYY
T. Grisham

T. Grisham

CF

Batter of the gamePerfect day

1-for-1 · 2 R · 2.000 OPS

G. Cole

G. Cole

SP

Starting pitcherQuality start

6.2 IP · 10 K · 0 ER · 4 H

KCKC
M. Garcia

M. Garcia

3B

Batter of the game

2-for-4 · 1.000 OPS

N. Cameron

N. Cameron

SP

Starting pitcher

5.0 IP · 4 K · 2 ER · 4 H · 1 BB

How it ended

NYY beat KC 7-0.

Last play

End of the 9th inning

Win probability

KC vs NYY

0255075100I2I3I4I5I6I7I8I9

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact
NYYTop 4th Inning · 1-0
+17pp→ 73% WP

Rice · tripled to left, Goldschmidt scored.

KCTop 6th Inning · 2-0
+7pp→ 20% WP

Judge · grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Rice out at second, Goldschmidt to third.

NYYTop 7th Inning · 3-0
+6pp→ 91% WP

Carter Jensen · challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Paul Goldschmidt walks. Trent Grisham scores. Anthony Volpe to 3rd. Ryan McMahon to 2nd.

Linescore (innings)

Team123456789R
NYY0002003207
KC0000000000

Period scoring

NYY won 3 · KC won 0

0
0

Inn 1

0
0

Inn 2

0
0

Inn 3

2
0

Inn 4

Rice 1

0
0

Inn 5

0
0

Inn 6

3
0

Inn 7

Rice 2

2
0

Inn 8

McMahon 2

0
0

Inn 9

NYY
KC

Play-by-play · 530 plays

period
event
player
  1. End 9t

    End of the 9th inning

    NYY 7·KC 0

  2. B9

    ·

    NYY 7·KC 0

  3. B9

    Pasquantino grounded out to pitcher.

    ·

    NYY 7·KC 0

  4. B9

    Pitch 4 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYY 7·KC 0

  5. B9

    Pitch 3 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYY 7·KC 0

  6. B9

    Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging

    ·

    NYY 7·KC 0

  7. B9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    NYY 7·KC 0

  8. B9

    Camilo Doval pitches to Vinnie Pasquantino

    ·

    NYY 7·KC 0

  9. B9

    ·

    NYY 7·KC 0

  10. B9

    Witt Jr. grounded out to third.

    ·

    NYY 7·KC 0

  11. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYY 7·KC 0

  12. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYY 7·KC 0

  13. B9

    Camilo Doval pitches to Bobby Witt Jr.

    ·

    NYY 7·KC 0

  14. B9

    ·

    NYY 7·KC 0

  15. B9

    Garcia grounded out to shortstop.

    ·

    NYY 7·KC 0

  16. B9

    Pitch 5 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYY 7·KC 0

  17. B9

    Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking

    ·

    NYY 7·KC 0

  18. B9

    Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    NYY 7·KC 0

  19. B9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 2

    ·

    NYY 7·KC 0

  20. B9

    Pitch 1 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYY 7·KC 0

  21. B9

    Camilo Doval pitches to Maikel Garcia

    ·

    NYY 7·KC 0

  22. B9

    Doval relieved Cruz

    ·

    NYY 7·KC 0

  23. B9

    Bottom of the 9th inning

    NYY 7·KC 0

  24. M9

    Middle of the 9th inning

    NYY 7·KC 0

  25. T9

    ·

    NYY 7·KC 0

  26. T9

    Rice grounded out to first.

    ·

    NYY 7·KC 0

  27. T9

    Pitch 3 : Ball In Play

    ·

    NYY 7·KC 0

  28. T9

    Pitch 2 : Ball 1

    ·

    NYY 7·KC 0

  29. T9

    Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking

    ·

    NYY 7·KC 0

  30. T9

    Mason Black pitches to Ben Rice

    ·

    NYY 7·KC 0

Team stats

NYY

Away

Stat

KC

Home

7

Runs

0

8

Hits

4

0

Errors

0

13

TB

6

1

HR

0

4

BB

0

7

K

10

13

LOB

4

Betting line

NYY -1.5·O/U 8.5·NYY -156/KC +129

DraftKings · via ESPN

The receipts

Closing-line value.

+1.26

CLV pp

Open price

-149

Close price

-157

Open no-vig

57.2%

Close no-vig

58.4%

Market came to the model · Graded: hit

STATCAST · Tonight’s standouts

3 of 15 players in cohort
  • Bobby Witt Jr.KC · SS
    SPRINT30.399+
  • Lane ThomasKC · CF
    SPRINT28.688
  • Amed RosarioNYY · 3B
    SPRINT28.278

Player projections

KC vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

  • Cam SchlittlerNYY
    6.7± 2.0low
  • Ryan WeathersNYY
    6.5± 2.9low
  • Will WarrenNYY
    6.1± 3.3low

Hits

  • Ben RiceNYY
    1.2± 1.3high
  • Maikel GarciaKC
    1.1± 0.8high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

  • Ben RiceNYY
    2.4± 2.8high
  • Cody BellingerNYY
    2.0± 1.9high
  • Jazz Chisholm Jr.NYY
    1.8± 2.0high

RBIs

  • Ben RiceNYY
    0.8± 1.1high
  • Anthony VolpeNYY
    0.7± 1.6low
  • Aaron JudgeNYY
    0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

  • Noah CameronKC
    2.7± 2.3low
  • Seth LugoKC
    2.6± 2.9low
  • Stephen KolekKC
    2.4± 3.1low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.4%

ensemble · NYY favored

  • Elo Static

    36.5%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Elo Pitching

    32.0%

    P(KC win)

    33%

    weight

  • Bullpen Park

    34.5%

    P(KC win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

1.83 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

88% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 969 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year + total_runs

  • May 25, 26sim 97
    104
    7(H)3
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 27, 26sim 94
    150
    2(H)8
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 26, 26sim 93
    301
    1(H)6
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 29, 26sim 92
    108
    11(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 13, 26sim 92
    303
    14(H)5
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs
  • May 15, 26sim 92
    105
    21(H)2
    EloWin probTime of yearTotal runs