MLB game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+2TEX

TEX

33-34

28-40

Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City, Missouri

16,015 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

KC spread

+1.5

open +1.5

Total

O/U 10.0

open O/U 10.0

KC no-vig %

47.5%

open 48.3% · -0.7

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = KC favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

44.4%

ensemble · TEX favored

Elo Static
48.5%
P(KC win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
49.0%
P(KC win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
48.3%
P(KC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.29 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+3.6pp

best edge · TEX · DraftKings

TEX

★ best

-125DraftKings

edge +3.6pp · implied 52.1%

no live price

Book	TEX	KC	Best edge
DraftKings	-125★	-104	+3.6

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

KC vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 78 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob deGromTEX
6.4± 3.2low
Nathan EovaldiTEX
5.8± 2.7low
Jack LeiterTEX
5.6± 3.6low

Hits

Kameron MisnerKC
1.5± 0.8low
Jac CaglianoneKC
1.3± 1.4high
Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.2± 1.0high

Total bases

Jac CaglianoneKC
2.0± 2.8high
Jake BurgerTEX
1.8± 1.9high
Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.6± 1.5high

RBIs

Carter JensenKC
0.8± 1.1high
Kameron MisnerKC
0.8± 1.3low
Maikel GarciaKC
0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

Jack LeiterTEX
3.1± 2.7low
Michael WachaKC
2.9± 2.7low
Nathan EovaldiTEX
2.9± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TEX

league avg

.699

OPS

.717

.693

.316

OBP

.319

.316

3.99

Runs / G

4.50

3.99

3.79

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.48

1.22

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.38

8.5

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

TEX 6 · KC 4 (by 2)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked TEX +2pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R
TEX	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	1	0	2	6
KC	0	1	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	4

Final play

“End of the 10th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. PedersonDH	.235	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. SeagerSS	.179	5	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. Jung3B	.314	5	0	1	1	0	1	2
B. NimmoRF	.255	6	1	2	0	0	0	0
W. LangfordLF	.224	5	1	1	0	0	0	2
E. Duran2B	.292	4	1	1	0	0	0	3
E. CarterCF	.176	3	1	1	1	0	2	0
K. HigashiokaC	.231	2	0	0	0	0	2	1
N. Lopez2B	.333	3	0	2	1	0	1	0
J. Burger1B	.245	2	1	2	2	1	1	0
M. HelmanCF	.179	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. DiazC	.400	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
Team		37	6	11	6	1	9	9

Player

.235

.179

.314

.255

.224

.292

.176

.231

.333

.245

.179

.400

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. GoreSP	5.0	8	2	2	3	6	87
P. GrayRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	20
T. AlexanderRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	11
J. JunisRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	3	21
J. LatzRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	17
Team	10.0	13	4	4	4	11	156

Player

5.0

1.0

1.0

2.0

1.0

Team

10.0

156

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. ThomasCF	.234	4	0	2	1	0	0	1
B. Witt Jr.SS	.279	5	0	2	0	0	0	1
M. Garcia3B	.261	4	0	0	0	0	1	1
S. PerezC	.197	5	0	0	0	0	0	2
V. Pasquantino1B	.221	4	1	1	0	0	1	1
S. MarteRF	.257	4	0	1	0	0	1	1
J. CaglianoneRF	.275	5	2	4	1	0	0	1
N. Loftin2B	.231	4	0	1	1	0	1	1
I. CollinsLF	.217	5	1	2	1	0	0	2
T. Tolbert2B	.214	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. MisnerCF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		41	4	13	4	0	4	11

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. LugoSP	3.1	3	1	1	1	2	44
M. BlackRP	1.2	2	1	1	2	2	39
S. CruzRP	1.0	2	0	0	1	1	19
M. StrahmRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	21
L. ErcegRP	0.1	0	1	1	2	1	16
D. Lynch IVRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	0	17
J. SchreiberRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	18
A. LangeRP	1.0	2	2	1	2	1	32
Team	10.0	11	6	5	9	9	206

Team

TEX

3 sub-models, blended.

Where to bet this game.

KC vs TEX.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

KC vs TEX.

3 sub-models, blended.